Part 1

=== Caveat Emptor Dept. ===

There is one major problemo with the above comps. 

True, they all match well in fastball velocity.  They match well in that, as a group, they had plus command.  And they all had superb control ratios. 

The first thing you notice here, is that most of them finished their careers with ERA+ of around 110-115.

Cliff Lee, of course, just finished posting two ERA+ a whale of a lot better than that:  he was 131 last year, and 168 (!) the year before that.

...............

So is this our first lesson learned?  That Cliff Lee just had two spectacular career years and that he looks to regress to about 115-120 for awhile?

Well, no .... to answer that question, let's click through the other guys and see if they posted little 2-, 3-year peaks in the 140 ERA+ range, before reverting...

...

Santana is simply much better than the other guys, a true 140 ERA+ pitcher, and may belong in the Koufax group (K's around 9-10 before his arm lost juice).   Still, Santana was fab in 2008-09 too, with fewer K's, and if Lee is going to maintain dominance, Santana is the precedent.

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Swindell indeed had two career years at 26-27 and then immediately fell off the peak for good.  M's fans hope that Lee doesn't repeat Swindell's career arc.

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Wells was a great pitcher until age 32 ... ERA+ of 140's ... and then a good one (110-115) for ten more years.   He threw 92-93 earlier, 87-88 later.

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Candelaria was well capable of great performances all the way up until he got hurt.   No fears there, that a Lee comp is limited to a 115 ERA+.

I was a fan of the Big Red Machine in 1977, and well remember how feared the Candy Man was back then.  He was Santana-esque in his reputation.  Actually, remembering it now, he had one of the best fastballs in the league and might go in the Koufax category.

Still, Candy is an obvious case of terrific-when-healthy.  But he threw very heavy innings right from age 22 and turned out not to be able to handle it.

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Smiley didn't have the stuff that Lee (now) has, but consistently ran 115-120 ERA's until he was overused in 1992.  

Smiley had his best year in '92.   Following a 20-win season in 1991 that established him as a "workhorse," he threw even better in 1992, tossing over 240 innings at a 125 ERA+ clip.

The very next year, 1993, he was injured and never the same again.

Let's hope that Cliff Lee's 270 innings last year don't presage the kind of falloff that Smiley suffered in 1993.

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Teddy Higuera was fabuloso for three years 1986-88, but overused (250-260-225 IP) and collapsed.  

Still, you know what?  I was sort of fearing that a Picture-Perfect Lefty couldn't sustain an ERA+ above 115.  But at this point, I'm realizing that while a Picture-Perfect Lefty is on his game, he certainly can stay in the league's top 5 for ERA.

Was worried for a minute there.  But Santana, and Wells' first half of a career, and Candelaria, and Higuera, restore my confidence that a Lee type can sustain dominance.

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El Sid is one of the oddest ducks in the annals of baseball.  Peripherals like the Big Unit -- whom he was almost traded for -- and results like Jarrod Washburn.  I'm not going to infer a thing here.

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Denny Neagle ran 3-and-a-half consecutive Cy Young contender years, and then at age 30 he burned out.  The usage wasn't particularly heavy.  There is a message here.

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Jon Matlack had 3 great years in his early 20's, the glory Seaver years, but threw 250 IP per season, plus playoffs, at ages 22-23-24.

He was an innings eater later, but his bounceback season at 28 is fascinating.  Note carefully that Matlack's big season came right after the one year his arm got a little rest.

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Andy Pettitte, exactly the same thing as Matlack:  great pitcher in his early 20's ... tired, therefore good but not great after ... got his only light-usage year at age 32 and then, at age 33, ran a 177 ERA+.

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Part 3