HQ Riff: Elite skills masked by aberrant HR/F, Strand %.
BPV, xERA tell the true story (130 and 2.89 - Dr D).
The closest 2009 comp for this extreme GB, Power profile? Some guy named Broxton. Similarly, with the opportunity...
UP: Broxton-esque save totals.
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SSI Mixing Board: Usually Ron will wait on a would-be closer.
His view of the world dictates that a Mr. Magic Closer needs TOG -- Talent, Opportunity & Guile. "Guile" meaning the makeup to handle "the hot seat." The Guile is confirmed how, per HQ? By saving 35 games first.
HQ is generally skeptical of would-be closers until they've already proven it. More so than most places. They're big believers in the idea that only certain people can handle "Closing." On this point, SSI and BaseballHQ come from almost-opposite ends of the spectrum.
Shandler's enthusiasm for League indicates that he's interested in putting League on the back of his 2011 Forecaster as a called shot. :- ) Can't blame him. SSI is positioning itself for about the same thing...
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SSI Mosh: SSI's earlier take on League
It's funny.
Sabermetrics is fundamentally about finding That Great Player who is camoflaged by bad luck or bad context. That is kind of what Bill James invented it for** -- hey, Brandon League's a great pitcher, and nobody knows about it yet.
Then you DO find a stone-cold camouflage star -- whose ERA is misleading precisely because of unlucky FIP stats (HR/F and strand rate). And we all talk like 1975 sportswriters: we will believe him when we see him .... not before ...
League isn't wild. He fanned 9.2 men and walked 2.5 last year. He had 1.0 homers and, in 2008-09, had spectacular GB rates. Those are the stats you look for in a superstar, franchise reliever.
The only puzzling thing about Brandon League is why all the locals aren't calling their shot on him now. If he isn't hurt next year, he's going to be a star.
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Cap-O-Vision Crow's Nest: This is a move that is truly sabermetric.
Sabermetrics aren't about telling you whether Jason Bay deserves $11m versus $14m. Sabermetrics are about you knowing that a player is good when other people don't know it yet.
This is really as if Jack Zduriencik flipped open his Forecaster, said, "Hm. Who are the great LIMA pitchers for 2010?" and then, finding League, paid the price to go get this pitcher.
It's fine to say, "here's a great low-cost, zero-risk pickup." It's another thing to find a player that you believe in, and have the courage of your convictions to go get him, when it costs you something.
.............
By the way, sabermetric MLB organizations have guys doing this: scouring all of pro baseball for sabermetric pickups. Voros McCracken is (or used to be) dedicated to doing this for Boston. He spends time sorting sheets by K/BB, K/9, etc., making candidate lists, studying them, and providing recommendations lists to superiors...
That kind of rec list is one way that (typically) a Brandon League comes to a Tony Blengino's attention. Granted, League is so high up the ladder already, that Zduriencik's going to be well aware of him long ago. But as the saber guys add their voices, you can hit critical mass...
.............
It was interesting that Zduriencik downplayed his coup. I love Capt Jack because money talks, baloney walks, with him.
He doesn't care that he came under fire for the Morrow-League deal. He didn't even bother to lean away from the salt spray, and fill people in, "Hey, we have high hopes for League. He's a key piece of the puzzle."
He knows that when the M's are in the World Series, and League is pulling a KRod there, the accolades will roll in then. Now, that's confidence. Zduriencik is eerily unconcerned about justifying his moves to the public, including to cyber-Seattle. That's Clint Eastwood, spaghetti western, throwing his poncho back so he can draw down.
Zduriencik shrugged, was like, "well, talented arm for talented arm. League will help us out in the back of the bullpen."
Yeah, rrrrrrrrrright.
Love yer Cap,
Dr D