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We'll get that Ichiro interview up shortly. Hopefully early Sat.
:daps:
Ryan Rowland-Smith as Swing Man, 2
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=== Overexposure Dept. ===
The stamina is part of it. RRS' history is not good after 75 pitches. But also, the physical carry-through aside, you simply don't want to give batters that 3rd look.
There are pitchers who have enough weapons, that the third time through they just show the hitters a different pitch sequence, if not completely different pitches.
Obviously Felix could nail you with FB-change one time, FB-slider another, FB-both a third time ... pitch you up, pitch you down, ground you out, strike you out.
RRS, what does he do differently the third time through, that he hasn't done the first couple of times? Riddle me that.
- 1st PA in G, as SP, career: 94 OPS+
- 2nd PA in G, as SP, career: 85 OPS+ (the "groove window")
- 3rd PA in G, as SP, career: 116 OPS+
- 4th PA in G, as SP, career: 170 OPS+
To me, this collates RRS' career with finality. He's not a guy you want to overexpose.
Is 116 bad enough to worry about? Well, if you turn every 100 OPS+ hitter in the major leagues into a 116 guy ... what are the 120 OPS+ hitters turning into? And the 140's?
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=== Dr's R/X ===
RRS would be a whale of a swing man.
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Use him for long relief appearances that matter: you're down 4-2, Snell is out of the game after five, hand RRS the ball to the end of the game. A lot of times, he'll be a LH following a RH pitcher.
The M's bullpen is loaded with max-effort guys, Lowe, Aardsma, League. RRS is the opposite, nice rhythm. He can't go through a lineup three times, but he can sure as shootin' go through 15 batters including baserunners.
60-70 pitches is the comfort zone. That's documented. So use him to tag-team with these four (4) five-and-dive guys you have in the rotation.
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Spot start him. Get 100, 120 innings out of him when the other team hasn't been studying video on him before the series. Pick the lineups you like him against.
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Use him as your LOOGY sometimes. Last year, anyway, he held LHB to a .160 AVG. True, in 2008 it wasn't, but hey. Ryan has got a real good curve ball. It's his best pitch, very deceptive - he hides it well. I like his chances against lefties.
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Use him short. Suppose you've burned League and Lowe, like you had tonight. Nothing wrong with giving RRS the ball for an 8th inning. He's got the makeup.
Kelley isn't your Willy Wonka ticket to a 6-man pen, but RRS certainly would be.
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As a 200-inning starter, I've got little faith in RRS' stamina. As a multi-purpose lefty, I see him as a championship #10 pitcher.
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You know what would be cool, would be if the M's had a guy in the bullpen who'd started in college. Who could just trade places with RRS.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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RRS certainly fits the profile of someone who would fade late, but he doesn't have enough of a track record yet for the splits to be very reliable.
Long man/Swing would probably be a better fit for his arm, but then who throws in the rotation?
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Maybe SHAWN KELLEY?
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After pitch 30, Kelley is teh suxx0rs too, Doc. What eactly are you basing your finality of opinion on his being a better fit to start than RRS?
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Better yet, trading that college kid for Edwin Jackson sounds like the superior option.
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tou-che, Anon.
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When you say "finality," my question is why they don't want to *investigate* Kelley as a starter.
As an RP, I don't doubt that his pitches past 30 will split out weird. The question is what happens when he's stretched out to start.
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Kelley *could be* a guy who lacks stamina. "What exactly" is the fact that a pitcher with plus-plus command necessarily has good driveline mechanics and usually has a starter's rhythm. But nothing's for sure.
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If tearing his oblique at random was, as you opined last week, a sign that his follow through is too violent...that's something to kepe in mind re: Kelley's mechanics and his chances of staying healthy as a SP. Not saying I'm against experimenting with it...I'm not. He has a better chance than Brandon Morrow (IMHO) to sustain success in the rotation.
BTW, I also agree on RRS not being starter material. He can do it occasionally, but he just doesn't seem to have the body for long term success there.