In all the hooplah around Franklin Gutierrez' fantastic start, Casey Kotchman has been snubbed. Why, the answer is pretty simple, the results haven't been nearly so pretty, but the process has been for Kotchman has actually been better in a lot of ways.
Now, I'm not going to compare them, they're different, that's fine, I just want to point out some of the stuff that Casey's looking great at so far. First up, batted ball profile. After today, Kotchman's batted ball profile (per fangraphs) looks like this: 40%GB/37%FB/23%LD/15%HR-FB(Baseball-Reference has him at 25%LD before today, which makes sense, because fangraphs didn't count either of the line drives from yesterday). Of course it's still early, and if he hits 3 grounders tomorrow then we're just about back to square one, but the early results are looking pretty fantastic, and if he kept that batted ball profile up all year...well I'll get to that. But the question might be, if he's hitting the ball like that, why's he still batting .263? Well, as most people know, the average average on line drives is around .750, Casey Kotchman so far; 3/8 (per fangraphs) or .375. It would be fair to say he's had some bad luck and could easily be batting .340.
The other thing he's showing off, is an utter lock down of the strike zone. Take a look, once again, at his fangraphs page. That's a way better than average resistance to chasing the ball, and when it's in the zone, he's putting Ichiro to shame (and the page once again, doesn't include today's stats where he didn't chase or miss a pitch).
So, to recap, so far he's shown a significantly improved batted ball profile, terrific strike zone control, near perfect hand eye coordination in making contact when he does offer, and a couple of early dingers. Go ahead and stretch out the stats he has put up so far, yes he's on pace for 25 double plays, but also 25 home runs, 37 doubles, and over 100 RBI. In my last post on Casey, I said he could pull a pre-2009 Joe Mauer season. Right now he's starting to look like Joe's 2009 could be in the cards.
I have to admit that Kotchman is winning me over. His glovework reminds me of a perhaps better version of Olerud -- and his bat has been more than serviceable.
It may be that the general expectation of 1st basemen as mashers makes it difficult to appreciate someone from a glove-first perspective. But CK has been a pleasant surprise.
I'm rooting for him!
I like what I've seen from Kotchman. As soon as we get a competent DH or move Bradley to DH, and get a competent left fielder, this team will be ready to win this AL West title.
Would also help if Adam Moore could get his mind right, and stop pressing.
Its early to make anything of the results yet. Today's game brings Kotchman to an excellent OPS. Yesterday it would have been poor. In a couple days he could be great or terrible.
I'll take WAY under on comparing Kotchman to Mauer. He just doesn't have swing.
Dr. D's chief complaint about Kotchman has been that he's got a very static weight transfer and it prevens him from hitting like a normal lefty (it keeps him from using a centrifugal motion to drop the barrel of the bat on pitches down and in and hooking them out for homers and doubles). Guess where the pitch was that he homered on today? Go look at his swing on that homer. Classic pendulum hammer-job on a hard fastball down and in.
That being .365/.440/.600, he's going to get about $100-150M this offseason, rather than $3M.
Believe me, if Kotchman turns out to be Joe Mauer, I'll be delighted to write an engraved apology and enjoy every one of his MVP trophies from here to the end of his career.
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Hey, don't let me dissuade you amigos from rooting for the guy. Zduriencik seems to be part of the contingent that believes that Kotchman has considerable untapped production. Hope you all are right.
As to whether he's shown anything, so far, in his BABIP splits and live swings to revise my prediction of him, the answer is no. If that occurs we will definitely say so. But will root for him to sustain his 0% popup rate from here to the end of the decade along with everybody else :- )
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Good post Mal! Keep it comin'...
of which Kotchman has two, so I'm in no position to dis' the guy. :- )
SSI is declaring a moratorium on (its own) Kotchman-bashing until his OPS+ drops into the 90's again.
The HR was on a pitch at the knees, and a little bit in, and that's great news for Kotchman fans. Definitely.
The hole is more like a volleyball-sized circle just below his hands, so that pitch wasn't quite in the circle, but still. He went down, shortened his arms, and got it off a terrific pitcher.
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He's getting the ball in the air a bit more, too. Will cheerfully admit that if he were going to take a step forward, those would be early warning signs.
I'm sure that the next LHP he sees, he'll go 450 to center field on me :- ) and we'll just keep right on dissin' him into his full "2009 Joe Mauer" season.
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We're talking about two weeks, naturally, but he's been in a good mood pre-trade.
How about 2 for 4 with a double and homer and 3 ribbies today. :)
Not conceding that the jury is out but the dude is doing a prime time AGone impersonation at the moment. Feel free to take this thread to 100 comments giving me the business :- )
Nah, Doc..I still generally believe that Kotchman is an inferior option at first base...but I will enjoy his hot streak while it lasts. :) If he hits 15 dingers this year with 30 doubles and gets on base at a .350+ clip...I'll be satisfied that we got a relatively cheap decent season at 1B in a trade for a useless crappy UTL OFer.
And here I thought EVERYbody would be on the All-Star bandwagon. Well, at least poor abused Dr. D won't be alone in the public stockade ...
I don't feel the Mauer comp at all. For me, the Kotchman comp remains Grace - (though I think Kotchman actually may have just a hair more power than Grace had.
I continue to believe that he's essentially a .300 guy with doubles power - who has poor aggregate stats as a direct result of being kicked to the curb repeatedly. Since 2007, he's not hit under .282 for any team he STARTED the season with. I think Kotchman's career numbers are tainted by the .250 BABIP periods he's endured after each trade.
Hopefully, he plays all year and we get to see.
...then he's a guy you can win your next pennant with IMHO. +10 runs on defense and .300/.360/.460 with 15 dings and 30 doubles...that's fine with me.
Wak mentioned that Kotchman has made some mechanical changes to his swing this year (shortening his swing).
Is this the work of Eliot? Have they managed to quicken what was once a slow bat?
I honestly haven't watched many games recently, but was wondering if anybody could point out the specific changes that were made.
Shortening the swing would dovetail with the fact that he's been able to scoop low fastballs better.
I do like the way he's dropped his whole body to go down and get the low ones. That's not something you can accomplish with a Jay Buhner or Bret Boone swing.
That.
When Casey started dropping his shoulder and golfing low FBs into the outfield with authority I got interested.
Not seriously interested, since they were just singles, but he wasn't doing that when I watched him before. And since he's still keeping his head above water, bravo for him.
My comp for Good Kotchman has been David Segui, not Grace. Grace (119 OPS+ career over a LONG career, some years at 130+) is the next notch up from Segui (110 OPS+ career, hit his stride at 28 and done at 35, only had 1 full year over 124).
But there's definitely nothing WRONG with being Segui - great glove, 15-20 HRs, 30 doubles, and a vacuum for infield ricochets from his teammates.
If Kotchman can be Segui, I can be satisfied at his price point. The difference between the 115 OPS+ that makes the glove-master-at-1B viable and Kotchman's previous 95 is just too much for me to swallow.
I don't think it's gonna last, but I'd be more than happy to actually welcome Kotchman to the team if it does. Right now his first couple of weeks have been as good as anyone could have dreamed them to be.
Congrats to him.
~G