I/O: The entire baseball world, by which we mean "a couple thousand 'net rats in Seattle," is breathlessly wondering whether the Pirates could feasibly pass on Anthony Rendon with the #1 pick.
CRUNCH: As Spectator noted below, Rendon has 46 homers in 468 college AB's. He also has an unpossible 65:22 EYE this year.
Had this occurred in the PCL, the mainframe would accept Rendon's stardom as inevitable.
Since it occurred with Rendon swinging a pipe, against 50% pitchers who won't even throw in rookie ball, we'll remind you that Alex Gordon did pretty much the same thing in college, and from the left side.
.
CRUNCH: Along with everybody else, I'd be thrilled to see the Pirates pass on Rendon so we could nab him.
But. I don't care for Rendon as much as some do. He has a funky Vlad Guerrero-, Juan Gonzalez-, Eric Davis-type swing that doesn't jell with his spectacular EYE ratio.
He is the #1, of course. I mean, don't get me wrong. I've got nothing against .800 slugging averages, as a general rule.
.
CRUNCH: I doubt that the Pirates would pass Rendon because of position. Pedro Alvarez or ... maybe AND ... Rendon could wind up playing 1B or LF. I presume they'd go Rendon 3B and Alvarez 1B ... flip that, if Rendon ever turns his ankle again ... and never look back.
I also don't doubt that the Pirates would pass Rendon, period. They have blown about twelve #1's this decade - what's one more among friends.
.
CRUNCH: If Rendon didn't tumble all the way to the M's draft slot at #2, as of right now, I'd be hoping against hope that they took George Springer.
Not necessarily because Springer's the next-best player, but ... can you imagine if the Seattle Mariners took Garrit Cole? How long, exactly, before half the Mariners' org was talking about how well Cole's stuff played in the bullpen?
Is it satire, or is it serious? You be da judge....
Granted, Cole is supposed to have the 95-99 fastball and yellow hammer that could leave him as the draft's Josh Beckett. But even supposing you weren't talking the M's mania for making closers out of Phillippe Aumonts and Brandon Morrows, you're still looking at the 50-50 shot that Cole got hurt before he starred in the bigs.
In any case, draft the bats, buy the arms.
.
CRUNCH: Here's a sample report on Springer:
.
In two seasons at UConn, Springer has hit 34 home runs while stealing 45 bases, showing off what one crosschecker called "a very rare speed/power combination." That package was on full display this summer—first in a brief but successful stint in the Cape Cod League, then for Team USA, with whom Springer hit .292/.342/.472 with two homers and 18 RBIs.
At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, Springer is a physical specimen with freakish athleticism.
He is very aggressive in all phases of the game and takes a big cut at the plate, generating serious bat speed and above-average raw power, though some scouts think his game power will be just average. Others, however, envision him as a potential 30-30 player down the road. His speed rates as at least above-average, and he uses it well on the basepaths. His outfield arm is above-average if a bit inconsistent, and though he played left for Team USA in deference to Jackie Bradley, he profiles as an average to plus defender in center.
Springer's ceiling is huge, but he needs to adjust his approach to hit at higher levels. Scouts take issue with his load, as his hands are busy and close to his body before the pitch. He also is still learning to shorten his swing with two strikes and use the opposite field, though he made progress in that area late in the summer.
And here's interesting little collection of links on the lad. One report raves that "Springer is a physical specimen with big arms and a wide upper-body tapered into a strong core and high waist." Andre Dawson with walks, huh.
The M's will take franchise bats wherever they can get them, and IIRC Springer got 60 walks last year in college, along with a 33/35 stolen base ratio. You'd consider him an ideal leadoff man in CF, if he weren't projected to hit 30 homers...
Cheerio,
Dr D
I saw Springer play last year in the Regionals. The kid is a real athlete. He is known to swing and miss a lot. I am not a big fan of Rendon's swing either. I am not sure how it would play out with wood. I think Springer of a right handed Grady Sizemore...That would not be a bad pick IMO...
John
I think it's safe to assume that Rendon goes to Pittsburgh anyway. It would be like Pardes fans assuming that the Nats and Ms would pass on Stras and Ackley. Interesting to think about, but not to think about too seriously (BTW, they ended up with Donovan Tate, who was named the #6 prospect in the AZ Rookie League -- behind the #1 prospect, Guillermo Pimentel (and Pimentel is a whole 'nother topic that we haven't touched on enough -- http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=piment002gui)).
I was very impressed with and surprised by Springer's speed, but he really seems like a stretch to me as the #2 pick in the draft ... as a RH hitter with less-than-Poythress power heading to Safeco ... as a guy who struck out 70 times in 64 games against a Big East (not the very top level) schedule.
Actually, if you want a leadoff-y kind of guy, I looooove Jackie Bradley Jr. of South Carolina. He's a small guy with surprising power; Springer a big guy with surprising speed. Bradley led his team to the national championship and oozes quiet leadership.
Springer RH, Big East -- 243 AB, .337/.491/.658, 16 dbl, 4 tpl, 18 HR, 60 BB, 70 K
Bradley, LH, SEC -- 242 AB, .368/.473/.587, 12 dbl, 1 tpl, 13 HR, 41 BB, 37 K
I'm not sure I'd use the #2 pick on either of them, though. I understand being wary of pitchers, but the top ones are very good this year.
What an apropos early comp:
150 K's, 80 BB's (perfect)
25-30 homers
30 SB's
.270 AVG
Big physical guy playing CF
Average-solid defense
At SSI, we'll go with Grady Sizemore 'till somebody thinks of a better one. Sterling call John.
I think it's safe to assume that Rendon goes to Pittsburgh anyway.
With their fans, even, already gushing about their 1B-3B combo, we'll have to label that one the official SSI doctrine, also :- )
But it's a great draft to be picking #2-5. Quite possible that we'll dodge an Alex Gordon-type bullet with Rendon.
Very reasonable:
I was very impressed with and surprised by Springer's speed, but he really seems like a stretch to me as the #2 pick in the draft ... as a RH hitter with less-than-Poythress power heading to Safeco ... as a guy who struck out 70 times in 64 games against a Big East (not the very top level) schedule.
Ya, you can argue that and people will ... I have an inkling for John's comp of Grady Sizemore, though.
If Springer struck out WITHOUT drawing walks, that would be one thing. But I never hold it against a kid for trying to work the count...
A player like Grady stars, as y'know, not by hitting 40 homers or hitting .300 or OBP'ing .400, but by adding EVERYthing ... doubles and some homers and some SB's and some BB's and you add it all up, and boom, it's 130 OPS points...
...............
Will keep an eye on Bradley chief... was going to ax you, #2 really?, but you answered...
Springer is interesting, but he whiffs a LOT. Rendon got his BB totals raised some because nobody would throw him anything to hit, so it's not ALL eye, but he's still got a great one. He's about the only scary guy in the Rice lineup. His swing is a little...interesting, especially what he does with his hands, but when your coach compares your wrists to Hank Aaron's and demands his hitting coaches do nothing to screw you up about using em, I can buy that. Longoria has a bit of a similar swing and he does all right, and I'd expect Rendon to walk more and K less than that.
I'm not turning down a shot at an Edgar Martinez / Jeff Bagwell level bat at 3B for Springer (who IMO is a Jason Bay type, though Sizemore is a good comp too esp. if you think Springer will stay in CF). Rendon's bat is FAST. He does too much with his hands right now in the load, but he squares up the ball every time. If Rendon is there, he's head and shoulders better than Springer IMO.
Springer may indeed be a worthy #2 bat to take in the draft, but he's gonna K 150 times in the bigs. There's nothing inherently wrong with that.
Jason Bay and Jim Edmonds are a couple of guys who can have a profile like that and still be impact bats. The extension he gets on his swings reminds me of Alfonso Soriano, but we'd hope he could walk more than Alfie (and he looks like taking a base on balls is not an issue for him).
Springer is a fine backup prize to Rendon, but he's not the guy I want. He seems able to get his hands around on inside pitches better than, say, Jeff Clement, and the ball makes a nice sound coming off his bat.
But Rendon is a step above that. If Springer were Jim Edmonds, there would be an argument to be had (as he's the upper-deck version of that hitting template). I don't think he is, but if we get him I'll be happy to be wrong.
I'm more concerned that we would go pitcher at that point with Rendon off the table and worry that Cole/Purke/whoever would throw his UCL against a Japanese-language sign behind home plate and render the pick ineffective. Sometimes the David Prices work out, but there are far more failures with pitching than hitting especially in a loaded class (unless you're the Mariners and you draft a late-1st-round catcher 3rd ahead of All-Stars and future HOFers...grrr...).
As for Rendon being Alex Gordon...well, that's possible. I still think the Royals have royally screwed up that whole situation though. The guy killed the minors from day 1 (still does) and was fine as a prospect learning how to play. 110 OPS+ at 3B is fine in his second year. Not glorious...but fine. But he got injured and lost confidence - his own and the organization's - and has been mired in the minors or suffering in the bigs ever since.
Rendon doesn't strike me as the same mental player that Gordon was/is. I don't see the same pitfalls. My only concern with him is the health of that leg. Same thing happened to Robin Ventura and he never fully recovered. From Wiki:
"Ventura's 1997 ankle injury - a compound fracture and dislocation - also affected his leg muscles, which began to atrophy following the accident. Full strength in his leg never returned, and the daily pain from his ankle and leg contributed to Ventura's decision to retire from baseball. After retirement, Ventura limped badly and was forced to walk with a cane regularly."
That's my concern with Rendon. A healthy Springer indeed is worth more than a gimpy Rendon. But if both guys are healthy, I take Rendon every time. Unless Springer takes another leap forward this year and Rendon comes back to the pack, I don't see that changing. Sadly Rendon might not be there to give us the option, but there's a lot of baseball to play next year and shuffle the deck at the top of the draft again.
I'm still hoping for a hitter and not a pitcher at #2. We have plenty more picks to add pitching afterward.
~G
Try out this guy: great all-around athlete, tall, wiry, strong, good speed for a tall guy (but not as fast as Springer or Sizemore), LH like Sizemore, unlike Springer
Age 20 (A+/AA): 108 G, 26 dbl, 6 tpl, 15 HR, 67 BB, 136 K, .298/.390/.470
Age 21 (AA/AAA); 91 G, 22 dbl, 4 tpl, 11 HR, 39 BB, 96 K, .277/.357/.461
Age 22 (AAA): 64 G, 15 dbl, 2 tpl, 13 HR, 25 BB, 48 K, .310/.378/.544
Springer could be a faster, RH version of that guy, too.
Rendon's bat is fast and he starts his motion early giving him a head start.
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/07/15/anthony-rendon-scouting-re...
So you have a guy with a better eye, better power, better contact rate, and better swing than a guy who would have been #1 overall in most years (Alex Gordon). His numbers are better all across the board vs Gordon's and he has a better swing as well.
The only real question mark with Rendon is his ankle. Hes now injured it seriously TWICE. It could mean hes an injury prone player or that'll it will take away from his defense if it continues to be a problem. Hopefully, this, along with the contract demands, will scare the Pirates away.
You endorse George Springer Doc... His contact rate is worse than the average college player.. The upside is high, but he is epitome of high risk, high reward. Its too much of a reach at #2 IMO unless his contact rates improve drastically this next season.
Grady Sizemore's minor league K-rate: 14.4 K%
George Springer was 5th worst among all college players with 70 Ks last year. He has a below-average contact rate in college.
Sizemore was NOT a high K guy in the minors, he was a contact guy in the minors who became a higher K guy in the Majors.
This a more in-depth analysis of Rendon's swing:
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/07/23/anthony-rendon-scouting-re...
I really don't understand where you're coming from here Doc.. Who has been a better college hitting prospect than Rendon since '00?
The described but unnamed athletic type who strikes out a lot is Michael Saunders.
Forget Rendon and what he did BEFORE his ankle injury. Serious ankle injuries are perhaps the worst nightmare for an athlete, much much worse than any other joint injury and many athletes from different sports never recovered. I'd not get him anyway.
Rendon is obviously the #1.
...............................
"Along with everybody else, I'd be thrilled to see the Pirates pass on Rendon so we could nab him."
"He is the #1, of course. I mean, don't get me wrong. I've got nothing against .800 slugging averages, as a general rule."
"If Rendon didn't tumble all the way to the M's draft slot at #2, as of right now, I'd be hoping..."
"Not necessarily because Springer's the next-best player,"...
.................
About 20% of the sentences in the article emphasize that Rendon's the number 1 and that the Mariners would receive a windfall if the Pirates didn't take him.
If y'can't understand where I'm coming from, saying that Springer's my hope if Rendon doesn't "fall," I guess next time I could say it eight times instead of four. :- )
....................
A sad state of affairs when the designation "Best Player In The Draft" can only insult a player like Rendon. Heh!
I'll give my $0.02 on that guy's $0.02 shortly. :- )
Marco Van Basten was probably the greatest striker in world football from about 88 - 92, when he played for Milan. Before Milan he played for Ajax, scoring 128 goals in 133 games - he knocked in 90 for Milan out of 147 appearances playing in the best (at the time) and toughest defensive league in the world.
He always had ankle problems, and from 92/93, when he was 28, they started to get the better of him and he missed a lot of games. Never really played much over the next 2 years and had to retire in 95. He was cut down in his prime, really - had he not been injured he would have had 3 or 4 years right at the peak of his ability
Thats reasonable, but we should see how he recovers first.
If hes a disaster on the field and at the plate this season than maybe you do pass.
If hes just as good, I'm taking him injury risk or not.
Ya, but you're talking soccer. Theres a lot less running in baseball.
We'll see. If becomes a major problem this season than maybe you do pass anyways. It seems unlikely, but its a possiblity.
Whats your take on Spingers' Ks Doc?
If hes still running below-average contact rates, do you still want him at #2?
"Ya, but you're talking soccer. Theres a lot less running in baseball"
It's not a matter of just running, baseball is not a marathon, there're a lot of sprinting, torsion and twisting both in the batters box, running the bases and defense. I don't know how seriously he injuried and while I do wish the very best to the kid I'd be very very concerned to sign him for a lot of money.
We always have to keep in mind that some hitters simply let the first 2, 3, 4 pitches go by.
A hitter with a 0.85 EYE, like Springer's, could easily choose to post an excellent contact rate if he wanted to attack the first pitch.
K% (and CT%) mean very little to me, isolated from EYE. So, right, his CT% is no worry at all to me.
... though, can you think of any established ML stars whose careers were derailed by ankle injuries?
Perhaphs the case of Robin Ventura submitted by G could help. Likely that kind of injury is rare in baseball since it's not a contact game but - believe me - when that happens and some of those tiny fragile ankle bones someway break there's a lot of concern about recovery. Obviously the case of Rendon could evolve into the best way possible but be sure again that every team will be very very careful before signing him for a large bonus.
He broke his ankle in 1997, when he was 29, and here is his career track.
Off year at 30, the next year ... but at 31 he had perhaps his best season, his only .300 year along with 32 homers and 120 ribbies.
Tough to tell if Ventura's ankle torpedo'ed his performance, or if his age decline is pretty typical.
That's not the point. Just figure is he had that injury when he was 20.
http://www.allosource.org/news-and-media/in-the-news/1
Robin Ventura was back on the diamond a season after his injury, but there would be a long slide into daily pain that followed him into retirement -- until the transplant
Anyone who followed baseball, particularly White Sox baseball, in the late 1990s remembers Robin Ventura's ankle injury.
It occurred in a spring training game in 1997, when the Sox star's spikes caught in the dirt as he tried to slide home. He suffered a gruesome injury -- a broken leg and compound fracture of his right ankle -- that required four hours of emergency surgery.
Although he made a remarkable comeback and played in the major leagues another six-plus seasons, the ankle continued to bother him. Things just got worse after he retired in 2004. But a relatively rare operation, in which bone and tissue from a tissue donor are used to replace damaged cartilage, has him pretty much back to normal.
"I was having a hard time walking, doing anything, really," he said recently from his home in California. "It hurt all the time. It kind of limited what I did. I didn't want to go anywhere or do a whole lot. I found ways to not do things."
So...Robin Ventura had muscle atrophy and daily pain to finish out his career (from a different article), a degenerative joint condition and the choice between fusing his ankle or replacing the joint with a biological transplant 8-9 years after the injury. Just so he could walk or stand without blinding pain. It's amazing that his performance actually looked something like a normal age arc.
You can talk about what a standard age decline looks like, but the real concern is that Rendon's not gonna be real effective playing 3B as a 28 year old with a peg leg if he followed a similar injury pattern. I love the kid but his full recovery from this injury is not guaranteed.
Which means his status as the #1 pick isn't either. The Pirates could call it "medical reservations" and go in a different direction very easily, especially if he struggles at all or looks like he's having trouble fielding his position due to the leg issue. We've got a long way to go before draft day.
~G
Exactly G_Money. Even ignoring severity of his injury we don't know if he'll be able to field at all by next spring or in which kind of physical condition at least. Do not forget we are talking about an kid who's still to play a minor league match, not a 28-years old star with great skills and experience like Ventura. And even if - as I do wish him without any doubt - he's going to fully recover from that injury how about his mental confidence in his own body ? And how great is the chance to re-injury that side in cases like those ? Great questions I guess, likely very similar questions many ML organizations will make themselves.
Good points on the severity of Ventura's injury ... you wreck any part of your body that bad, even a finger, and it's going to lead to early retirement.
..............
Rendon's ankle was a Eduardo-, Aaron Ramsey-level horror?
I assumed that you were talking about torn ligaments and a cast. Definitely, if his foot was snapped off at the ankle then yeah, of course that affects his draft status.
'course then you're talking about 18 months to recovery, as Ventura (should have) had.
Is that Rendon's injury was a "regular" as opposed to "horrific" fracture, and that Rice has announced that they fully expect him to be ready for the college season in the spring.
Would defer to G as to how much he expects the ankle to hinder.
But would still be interested in hearing about batters who suffered "regular" ankle fractures and found their hitting impaired. I'm not challenging the supposition - just asking for information.
Ventura's ankle, it seems, was an outlier?
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/college/rice/7109697.html
"...there are reportedly multiple fractures in his ankle and foot. His ankle is believed to be dislocated as well."
If that's regular I don't want to see horrific. Now, according to Rendon himself:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/baseball/news?slug=kr-rendon092110
“There’s nothing abnormal about my ankle injuries. They were two freak accidents and my ankle is stronger than ever from a ligament standpoint,” he said. “My first ankle break was done inversely. The one earlier this summer was done the opposite way, so they’re two different injuries. I’m not worried about them being related or occurring again.”
There also is a chance the injury works to his favor in the draft. After all, he hit .394 last season after missing fall workouts with the first ankle injury, which was deemed more serious.
So. It could be worse, and apparently was worse last year. Same leg. That's either good, or troubling. I believe he'll be fine, so I hope he signs with Boras and that, plus the injury, plus Alvarez gives the Pirates enough reason to pass on Rendon and sign a pitcher.
Because Rendon's the bat I want, without question. Ackley/Rendon/Smoak is a heart of the order I can get behind.
~G