=== Michael Pineda ===
THE BEARDED PROPHET: gives 50 prospects in order of projected 2011 roto impact -- Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM is number one.
Ackley is #14 on the rook draft Post-It and Pineda is #15.
An interesting couple of remarks from HQ's minors guy Rob Gordon (who is at least as gung-ho as G or J) is that Pineda's slider is plus and that he has a "loose, easy delivery."
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The Mainframe Sez: Definitely, Michael Pineda has a loosey-goosey arm. We recognize Pineda's arm type from, of all things, MMA work and the touch that you get for putting a pin on such an arm.
We can certainly buy that Pineda's ligaments are wonderfully loose and resilient, but the delivery IMHO is anything but easy. He gets only the slightest shoulder torque on the ball before WHOOOM here comes the max-effort explosion. ... granted, the followthough is loose and easy.
Not as optimistic about the health as all that...
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Throughout 2009 and 2010 we heard the FKey7 complaints that Pineda had no slider. Naturally, we tripped out to Cheney and watched him throw telegraphed sliders that batters couldn't touch with cricket bats.
Pineda has a Doc Gooden fastball-overhand slider combo, but does need to stop telegraphing. On the other hand, at 100 mph maybe he can do what he wants...
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DEAD-OF-WINTER LINKAGE DEPT: you might, or might not, enjoy revisiting our August 2nd report from Cheney.
On the verge of being shut down for the year -- the 20-year-old threw 140 innings in 2010 -- Pineda sat mid-90's, hit 97, and when he did hit 97 he was still locating.
Pineda had been limited to 12 starts as a 19-year-old, amidst some scary elbow soreness. But tip another glass of sody pop ... in 2010, Pineda riffled through 25 easy starts, apparently with no elbow issues to speak of.
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Here is a bit of whimsy from SSI back in spring training. Pineda's 3-2 curve caused Mike Blowers to giggle in the booth ... when a batter is having to defend 96 mph located, any curve for a strike is tough. But Pineda's is a bombshell. Again the 2-pitch comparison to Gooden and Beckett occur ...
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It's easy to hold back Smoak and Ackley, and push Michael Pineda at the Rasmuses and Uptons around the majors. But come May 1st, that may be permanently in the rear-view mirror.
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Cheerio,
Jeff
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Photo - http://mariners.sportspressnw.com
Thanks...good stuff from him and you. Assuming MP breaks with club, who is next among potentials?
I want to check out his latest video. I remember seeing last year and just seeing this huge man kind of short arm? Or am I dreaming again?
About 17 years ago. And Mike Sweeney endorsed, last March...
HQ gives Robles' major league equivalencies as 9.1 k, 4.2 bb and 0.7 hr, which would make him Clayton Kershaw v2.0...
Of course, the noises start as to what a good reliever Kershaw 2.0 would make, but we have an inkling that Zduriencik is going to bring Robles to camp and let him take his shot at shocking the world...
But he sure had me fooled, until I slo-mo'ed him...
Almost no torque from his shoulders, does not show his #'s to the hitter AT ALL, but have to admit that he does extend the elbow all the way back to the CF...
As you recall, his size is not a problem :- )
Thanks. The things I had read about Robles is good control but probably have to go the pen...I would hope they send starters to the pen as a last resort...but I know they have reasons beyond me.
For the M's, I hope arms get raised up this year.
I freely admit I don't have as much to go on, but I've been watching his linescores and it's just fact -- he never gets past 6 IP. 2007 Rookie: 4.9 IP/start in 14 GS 2008: used in relief several times, so can't figure 2009 Midwest League: 5.1 IP/start in 11 GS 2009 FL St League: 5.0 IP/start in 7 GS 2010 Southern League: 5.18 IP/start in 22 GS 2010 PCL: 5.6 IP/start in 5 GS Also, not conclusive of anything, but he's been used in short relief roles in Venezuela the last two winters. I'm a fan in every other way, but that's why I haven't been sure that he'll end up an MLB starter.
Wilhelmsen was going 7 or 8 IP like absolute clockwork, and he's got mid-90s stuff too.
Not either/or, I like them both.
...Blake Beaven. Give him this year to stabilize within the organization and by years end he'll be up to the same hi-jinks he was pulling off in the Texas League.
In the other thread I just comped Robles to Kazmir (which is probably a comp I've made before) but the statline is the same.
Scott Kazmir: 8.5 hits, 1.0 HR, 4.2BB and 8.8K. That's about as close to Robles and his MLE line as I'd expect to get, especially with similar height issues. Kershaw is a bit taller and has different advantages.
But he's that sort of pitcher right now. If he can jump a control plateau with his footwork and get those walks to Bedard/Danks level, look out.
I expect him to be in AAA working on that. If it clicks in camp and he pulls "Eureka!" out of a hat, then yeah we might be breaking in 2 rookie of the year candidates at once.
More likely is that 6/11 is Pineda's time, and 6/12 is Robles.
I don't really worry about service time as much with pitchers as I do with hitters, but I'm fairly certain the Ms do. We'll see this year whether Pineda is allowed to break camp with the big boys as he should.
I view Pineda as the same type of high-K control freak that Liriano was when he broke into the league. We'll see if he can keep that up in the pros but I'd want him in early and often. There's no guarantee of pitcher health and if he's ready in April, then I'd like to see him contributing in April.
~G
I didn't know you were involved in MMA, Doc. Good to hear, as it creates absolutely wonderful opportunities for applying center-of-gravity and torque/resistance analysis.
I assume that Pineda ends up as a rotation mainstay for this team, and that the Cardinals (but probably not the D-Backs) end up regretting not pursuing him more forcefully. He's not going to be Felix, but he has all the tools and opportunity to become a legit #2 TOR pitcher.
I am interested that Wilhemsen(sp?) gets tossed into the 'future bullpen arm' pile. Why on Earth is that?
And by MMA we're just talking about live Aikido and TKD randori, with groundwork and standing strikes... the pins give you an interesting feel for what a partner's ligaments are like... believe me, any USMC instructor of my size and weight could take me three (or four!) out o' four falls, especially now that I'm 48 ...
By the time you get old and gray (er, hairless), and have become mediocre at 12 different sports, there are some principles of movement that you can start bringing across sports...
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If Pineda stays healthy and becomes a legit #2, pitching for less than a million, then I think everybody will be kicking themselves for not taking him, wouldn't they? :- ) At that point he'd be one of the top 25 commodities in baseball, in an absolute sense...
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You tell me why they'd do that to Wilhemsen. You could not draw up a pitcher more likely to stay healthy under 200 innings.
Good to hear, as it creates absolutely wonderful opportunities for applying center-of-gravity and torque/resistance analysis.
Take it you've had some training? Care to share?
Wilhelmsen didn't pitch at all for a half-dozen years. He threw 74 innings in the low minors last year. If you let him continue to start and stretch him out to 130 this year in AA and 160 the year after in AAA then in 2013 you MIGHT have a candidate for the rotation. If you trust that the time off didn't turn his arm into a pile of goo or something, and he stays healthy.
If you bullpen him then he can throw 70 bullpen innings for you starting in Spring Training '11.
Personally I have zero problem with them putting Wilhelmsen in the 2011 pen and spot starting him when Fister or Vargas or Bedard goes down.
Pitching is not like hitting. If Wilhelmsen demonstrates that his current plateau is Major-League-caliber, as Lowe did from A+ ball, then use him now.
I would not try to LIMIT him to the pen, but I would absolutely be willing to UTILIZE him in the pen while giving him a few starts to bump up his innings totals and get him ready for the 2012 rotation.
Do I think he could benefit from more time in the minors? Absolutely. But if we're in a hurry to get the best arms we can onto the 25 man roster, then Wilhelmsen's applies.
I'd wait longer but if Cortes implodes again (as expected) and Aardsma can't come back with the same level of luck/skill that he had before then we may need the extra pen arms, pronto.
Triage is tough work. Jack can't afford to lose 100 games again, and with the offense being a low-scoring affair again this year most likely that means whatever leads we CAN get need to be protected.
Felix might be able to protect his own leads. The lil mouseketeers that follow him in the pitching rotation might not.
I won't hold it against Zduriencik if he wants to put Tom in the pen this year.
I might if Tom never gets out of it again, but if he's being effective then let the man pitch.
We could use all the help we can get.
~G
Not sure how the IP-delta theory applies to a guy nearing 30, who's had a bunch of time off.
HQ would side with you G ... or with your characterization of the old school, rather ... find myself wondering whether Wilhelmsen is *ever* going to get hurt, regardless...
My brother and I had boxing gloves and headgear growing up (my dad didn't mind us fighting, but right about the time we got big enough to start damaging each other, he declared a 'no missing teeth and no broken bones' rule), and we actually used the gloves quite a bit, so range-finding and the effects of aggression/passivity are well-considered subjects to me (I've always liked to analyze things, probably more than I should). But most of what I know comes from high school wrestling.
Wrestling is about as pure of a form of combat as you can find. Sure, there's no striking per se, but that almost makes it an even more ideal combat form for studying leverage, center-of-gravity and push/pull mechanics than any other sport. Wrestling is built around the idea of taking on an opponent with nearly identical physical capabilities, and not only establishing dominant positions (which is usually where Judo ends), but well-and-truly breaking the opponent down until there is no question as to who the winner is via pin-fall. I think that mentality, along with the outrageous work ethic instilled in every high school wrestler in the USA, is what makes wrestling the ideal base for pro MMA fighters.
Am not dismissing Judo, Aikido, BJJ or TKD whatsoever. Have known judoka who I outweighed by fifty pounds who could make me look pretty silly in open grappling if I didn't take them absolutely seriously. And as far as the one perfectly timed/ranged strike, it doesn't get better than TKD or Karate for that.
Have always enjoyed your Aiki-analysis on athletic motions. I never really thought of things in those terms before reading your material.
And a very good one. Maybe the best one.