Mariners 6, Orioles 7 - Props

PROPS TO PROPS.  Not going to pour iodized salt into the 13th-inning wound.  After that game, let's just do props.

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PROPS TO STARS & SCRUBS.  The Mariners are the same thing right now that they would have been --- >  if Jack Cust's 12th-inning double would have gone 5 more feet, become a cheap home run, and won the game.

That "same thing" is this:  a team with intense strengths and intense weaknesses.  

Which is a great thing.  You can replace six terrible players with six mediocre ones.  You can't replace 25 below-average players with 25 good ones.

You can find a player to replace a 50-OPS+ second baseman who is mortified to put his glove on, and take the field.  But it would be a little harder to find a new rotation to replace five  Silvas and Batistas and Washburns, to each of whom you owe $10m per season.  

You can't get there from here...

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PROPS TO MICHAEL PINEDA's SLIDER.  He threw it 40 times, threw 33 strikes with it (!!), and saved 1.1 runs with only 40 pitches.

Got an article coming up that compares Pineda's slider to the best in baseball -- those thrown by Greinke, Latos, Scherzer, Wainwright, Felix, Colby Lewis, CC Sabathia, Clayton Kershaw, etc.

In terms of velocity delta off his fastball, in terms of vertical drop, in terms of arm action and in terms of its results against RH vs LH, Pineda's slider is as good as anybody's. 

Michael Pineda has one of MLB's great sliders.  Read about it elsewhere, end of the year.  Read about it here, in May.  

;- )

..... sudden thought.  Who, in baseball, ever throws his breaking pitch 40 times and gets 33 of them in the strike zone?  Does Felix?  Halladay?  Lester?

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They ran some stat tonight that showed Halladay and Pineda way ahead of the MLB pack in first-pitch strikes.  Tonight, Pineda was again like 19-2 at one point.

He's leading the field by a mile in velocity, and he's also leading it in control.  He's got the best slider in the American League.  He goes into a rage every time the airplanes fly by and happen to land a few rounds.  He doesn't think that Vlad Guerrero should ever make contact on him.

Pineda is freakazoid squared, man.  Like Ichiro, I've never seen anybody quite like him.

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PROPS TO GENERAL PRINCIPLES such as "the taller candidate wins the POTUS election" and "NBA players have to be able to dribble with their left hands."

The general principle "RH sliders shouldn't be thrown to LH batters" is, um, generally valid.  There are specific cases in which general principles do not apply.

Four real solid LHB's on Tuesday - Markakis, Scott, Roberts and Weiters - and they couldn't touch Pineda's slider with a paddle.

40 different sliders this kid threw -- and they couldn't touch any of them.  Erik Bedard wishes that he could put that kind of pressure on his breaking pitch.


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PROPS TO MICHAEL WILSON's DEBUT.  He was surrealistically cool about it, off and on the field.  Stayed within himself all night, and he hit that GWRBI on an 0-2 count.

Wedge spoke in terms of a LH/RH platoon with Peguero.  We certainly hope that Wedge is flexible about that.  Wilson hits RHP's better than Peguero does.

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PROPS TO THE FELIX 40-GAME PLAN.  Felix starts on Wednesday, his 9th start coming in game 37, and is now on pace for 39.4 starts.

After tomorrow, here will be the games started by each Mariner:

  • 9 - Felix
  • 7 - Vargas
  • 7 - Fister
  • 7 - Bedard
  • 7 - Pineda

So their Accelerated Felix trick has already moved Felix through the line one complete time already.

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PROPS TO JACK CUST who hit a ball to the warning track in left-center and, of course, hit one off the RF fence, right down the line.

Coinciding precisely with our Release Cust Now post, he became an effective part of the lineup.

Am still not sold, but will cheerfully concede that he's looked much better.

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PROPS TO ANY AL TEAM THAT CAN COMPETE, HITTING TWO HOME RUNS IN 10 DAYS.

Every game the Mariners play is excruciating, because they play 1-run-at-a-time offense and the other team always feels a few pitches away from launching a rout.

Oh, okay, Adam Kennedy did go yard tonight... the second baseman hit a ball +1 (or -1) feet over the fence.  My bad.

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The M's two callups are both hurkin', scary 240-lb. HR hitters.  Props to that.

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PROPS TO HAVING [SMOAK #2] IN AAA.

You never cut a guy for making physical mistakes when he's giving you all he's got.  

But Dr. D wishes there were some way to deal Jack Wilson for one of those $2 Safeco cocktail-weenie "hot dogs" --- > so that our suffering would not drag on.  

For the following reasons:

  • We knew how suicidal he'd be after the game, and
  • Because the M's have three good alternatives to this dog-and-pony show at 2B, and
  • Because of the 13-inning war that preceded it ...

....that blown DP and loss was one of my most painful moments watching baseball.  Am only typing out of sheer altruism, to raise Dear Reader's psych-health rating from -9 to -7.

How's that for bubbly? :- )

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PROPS TO ROLLING YAHTZEE.  Felix tomorrow.  Bedard and Pineda again just a few days later.

Whattaya know, boys, they rolled Yahtzee on Pineda and Bedard in 2011 and here they sit with the best rotation in the league.  

But!  Sometimes success brings pressure with it.  And that Yahtzee means that they now have the responsibility to find us a 97 offense.

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Git R Done,

Dr D


Comments

1
ghost's picture

Not only did he blow an easy DP...he did it by OLE!-ING the ball...(trying to play off to the backhand side of the ball...why exactly?  How does that improve the DP chance?) and then by being off-balance as he got his glove into position for some reason.  He looked DRUNK out there.
I know he feels bad about it...but that right there should be reason enough to call up Ackley and demote Wilson to 2-game-per-week utility man.  You don't have to cut Wilson...you can send Wilhelmson down to AAA with an option and roll with a 6-man bullpen for a while.  Get us a bat...period....because our "glove man" at second fields worse than the bats do.

2
glmuskie's picture

Tough loss, but it didn't bother me that much.  Why?
Mainly, because it was anyone's ballgame.  The teams played toe to toe, both doing some heroic and some bonehead stuff.  So...  *shrug*
Partly because, MW's debut was solid, and I'm pulling for him.
Partly because, since your posts on the Sasaki Syndrome I've been watching League, and kind of expected the O's to sit 1st pitch fastball and light him up.  So, not too unexpected or a blown save.
And in general, the team is moving in the right direction.
How about Smoak getting to that pich way outside for an RBI to go to extra frames?

3

Kudos to them for setting a course and trying to push it through, though... 
Somebody smarter than me explain the reason for not just going to Kennedy/LRod, Ackley?  No irony intended.  
They feel that Jack Wilson gains them significant D-runs?  They feel they can build value and get back a grade B prospect?  Seriously, clue me in.  I'll enjoy the games more if you do.
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4

Ya, didn't count 'em up tonight.  The FB's on first pitch, on any 1-0 2-0 or 3-1 count.  Did he get hurt throwing FB's there?
Saw Markakis go down and get a splitter in a deep count for an admirable single.  Didn't see the rest because figured how it was going to go and turned the TV off.
..........
Kudos to you GL for your 30,000-foot view on a 1-run game bouncing one way or the other.
Ya, was nice to see Smoak go back into HIT mode for that one.  Hope he drops back to that for a few games.  He's gotten a bit too optimistic the last several.

5

My take on the ENTIRE approach for 2011 is simple ... the moves are focused 95% on what is best FOR THE PROSPECT ... regardless of immediate impact for the team.
The idea of LROD/Kennedy/Ackley is one the "assumes" this will have zero negative impact on either LROD or Ackley -- (going under the assumption that LROD is at least a candidate for future PT).
The simple truth of the matter is ... when you have made the mental leap to "this is a rebuilding year - our focus is on doing whatever is best for the prospects ... ", then whatever positive effects for the TEAM in the short term are purely coincidental.
Ackley is in AAA because the club is convinced it is better for ***ACKLEY*** to be in AAA. 
The reason for the "hesitant?" utilization of LROD (and Saunders to a degree) is likely a case of a club that actually has a plan for working the prospects into full time play "gradually", giving them time to adjust, adapt, (and learn, hopefully), while not falling into the stock deployment trap of the last decade --- "let them start until they implode, then dump them."
The thing that is maddening when watching a club "develop" talent is that there CEASES to be any real pattern.  To optimize the development path of any individual player - you MUST treat that player individually.
Maybe you sit Saunders because you don't think he's ready for this LHPs curve (on Monday), but think he can handle the LHPs curve who is throwing on Friday.  I would imagine the use of hot/cold zone charts gets particularly interesting to managers when examining the probables each week. 
And the methods can work in MANY different ways.  Maybe you want LROD to work on patience and/or pitch recognition ... so you scout the probables for guys with 'stuff', but low on deception.  You might throw a kid against pitchers he's HORRID against one week, (so he can see them and work on his weaknesses) ... but then avoid that same type of pitcher the next week, (so as not to destroy the kid's confidence, and let him see some stuff more in line with his skill set).  It's not a simple A,B,C learn the chapters in the hitters handbook reality.  It's ugly.  It's chaotic.  And externally, it can often 'appear' to be devoid of reason.
And, of course, even if concentrating 95% on the prospects, the manager still has a duty to try and win games, so he'll juggle the lineup and sometimes he'll compromise and sit a prospect on a day, so the veteran can get some work and stay engaged. 
Honestly, I think the Bradley/Langer DFAs say more about Saunders than about the two callups.  I think, (perhaps), the club has decided sending Saunders down won't help him.  So, instead they bring up a pair of prospects - and turn a 1-prospect OF into a 3-prospect OF.  Instead of Saunders "having" to succeed for the club to improve in 2011, they club has three shakes of the cup to roll a small straight.
I think most of the cognitive disonnance is because the club HAS flopped from 90% how-to-win-today to 90% how-to-win-tomorrow. 

6
ghost's picture

He did not get hit in hitter's counts at all.  Markakis was in the ohle 1-2 and got lucky.  The second base hit was a five hop roller on a 2-2 pitch.  The third base hit was Jack Wilson being Jack Wilson.  The only ball they hit hard in a hitter's count was the last hit.  And I've noticed that League's location is terrible when he's less focus and he's less focused when it's not a save situation.

7

Started all six batters with fastballs: three balls and three in play for two singles.  Of the three batters started with balls all three saw a second fastball.  He's as predictable as ever.  He clearly has no confidence in his ability to throw his split/change-up for a strike and he has no command or his sinker (though he can throw it for a strike).

8

Watching them throw a pitch 8 inches off the plate and having him reach out and get it anyway was terrific.  The Orioles announcers were talking about Smoak being better as a righty but that their pitcher had no need to give him anything to hit because "he knows as well as we do who's up right after."  In other words, Miguel Olivo, cleanup hitter scares exactly no one and Smoak is the most dangerous man in the lineup by far.
They showed the pitch location after and the announcers just muttered, "Yeah dumped that pitch - at least six inches off the plate - into the outfield" with the grudging respect of seasoned baseball viewers.
Sometimes you do everything right and the other guy makes a play.  Justin knew they were gonna give him jack and nuthin to hit so he made it happen anyway.
This see-saw game was brutal though, and Jack Wilson may have committed ritual suicide afterward.
His replacement, in AAA, the last 10 games:
.300/.420/.600/1.020, 3 doubles, 3 HR, 9BB/5K
I still don't think Ackley is firing on all cylinders but he's finally hitting the ball hard and decently often.
I don't expect to see him before June to keep his arb costs down, but Jack has shown he'll do whatever he feels like he needs to for team functionality and wins.  Ackley's passed his service time deadline, which was the major one.  The Arb deadline is just about money, and the Ms aren't cheap, right?
Getting on with prepping the Mariners team that WILL help Felix win a title is gonna be a good thing.
~G

9

I just LOVED the exchange yesterday with Felix Pie when Smoak held the ball blocking his path to first base. Pie, retreating back towards home plate, forced Smoak to charge him. "The Kid" (as I now routinely call him) obliged. When Pie realized home plate was not a desired destination going that direction he suddenly reversed course causing the charging Smoak to bang into him.
Of all things, Pie objected to the hard contact and began to verbally lay into Smoak with the ol' 'what the hey?' talk. But rookie Smoak just set his jaw firmly and let veteran Pie know in no uncertain terms he wasn't gonna take any garbage from a punk.  It was no act, no bravado, just reality.
This guy is a ballplayer, and he's the type of ballplayer that tough, battle-hungry teams are built around. If I was an opponent, he would be a guy I feared.

10

Smoak is a quiet guy.  A guy like Rendon is a talker, a verbal leader.  Ackley and Smoak are quieter, lead by example types, but they still have that fire in them.  Smoak is practically laconic, but he does carry a big stick.
Reversing and running for home was dumb.  Trying to charge back into Smoak to make him lose the ball was dumb, and could have caused an injury. But after Pie (not a small man) bounced off Smoak's chest like a rubber ball and started jawing at Smoak, the bigger man just glowered at him, set his jaw like you said, and didn't back up an inch. 
Pie started screaming. 
Justin said a few words that seemed the equivalent of "don't start something you can't finish" with maybe a "sucker" added at the end. ;)
LOVE. Him.  He can hit in the heart of my order for 6 years, at least.
~G

11
ghost's picture

...one was a lucky dink...the second was after the lead had already been blown by Wilson and an annoyed League was just chucking it in there. You could DEFINITELY see the drop in concentration and command after that error.

12
ghost's picture

...was priceless. Pie collided, then started moaning and whining for no reason and Simms jsut said "oh stop it! STOP it!!" LOL Pie...you're just a little punk...go sit down.
I think Simms later even said "looked like Pie was looking for his bench...'come get me, boys, before I get a face full of knuckles'" NICE

13

Doc,
I meant to comment immediatley after the game on your B. League pitch analysis.  That really came through last night.  League must learn to throw the splitter early in the count...and when behind.  Right now, it looks like hitters are swinging early and (mostly) laying off the stuff way down in the zone.
But, with the recent Aardsma news it seems like League is the guy.
I'll offer a bit of support for J. Wilson.  His misplay was on a very tough ball that any 2nd baseman would have struggled with.  It was absolutely a wicked in-between hop on a hot infield (remember the ball that ate Ryan up).  Really the only play he had was to charge the ball and short-hop it.  He didn't do that, of course, but even then it would have been a tough play.....and probably not a double play, considering where his momentum would have carried him.
He botched the play....but LRod and Kennedy and Ackley may have, too.  It was anything but routine. 
But, I was certainly rooting for the 's to escape.  What a great debut it would have been for M. Wilson. 
BTW, let's hear no more about him not being able to field his position.  He made a very nice play against the foul territory fence and THE throw was superb, Ichiro-like in fact!
moe

14
ghost's picture

But he made two mistakes on it...one was to backhand the ball instead of getting inf ront of it (he had PLENTY of time to get in front of the danged ball) and the other was failing to charge the ball...to turn two, he would have needed to charge it ANYWAY...so...double-fail leads to a tougher hop leads to a brutal misplay leads to a loss. Wilson has no business on the infield.

15

Ghost,
Just wondering if Smoak has no business on the infield, too?  The play where he left firstbase to scoop the ball from Ryan was a much more simple play.....and he botched it.
If Wilson had charged the ball and stayed in front of it, no DP was going to occur.  Hey, it was a play that is made most of the time.
But it was no gimme.
moe 

16
ghost's picture

Smoak can hit, Wilson cannot. Smoak can field, Wilson cannot. Smoak's gaffe where he missed the base was annoying, yes, but he's also made a number of fabulous plays deep in the hole and down the line/foul territory. I can't really think of a particularly stunning play I've seen Wilson make this year ...and even if Wilson and Smoak were comparable defensively...Smoak jsutifies his presence on the infield by hitting...Wilson does not. And no...I don't agree about the charging the ball/staying in front comment you make. He just had to come up a step or two instead of dropping back a step or two...and if he'd ranged to his right, he could have easily flipped the ball to Ryan for the DP shovel pass.

17

Jack is just struggling mightily with the transition to 2B.  I get that it's hard to change positions later in a career, even to a theoretically easier one.  Some guys handle it better than others.  Biggio went from catcher to 2B to CF...but I remember some hilarious routes to balls when he was in CF at the tail end of his career.
But he could hit, he could always hit.  Wilson's OPS+ the last 4 years: 76, 74, 68, 67.
Willie Bloomquist's: 82, 77, 85, 101 (so far).
Jack Wilson's bat cannot justify his place in the starting lineup.  His glove HAS to do that.  And if his glove doesn't play at 2nd for whatever reason, then he shouldn't take the field at anything other than SS.
Jack has to make that play.  As a glove specialist?  He HAS to.  Smoak is not a glove specialist, he's a top-10 bat in the AL right now. 
If Ackley messes up that play (as he probably would) then you groan and chalk it up to growing pains at the position or as a consequence of having a bat-first player at the position.
Jack Wilson is so far from a bat-first player it defies description.  No glove, no play.  Simple as that.  I don't need him out of the infield, but he shouldn't play second.
I get why Ryan's at SS - they're trying to keep him and get rid of Wilson.
But it's not working out in the field, with our best-fielding SS playing second base and sucking there.  He's a SS or he's nothing.
That puts him very close to being nothing, so the sooner Ackley is able to get here the better.
~G

19

that was a tough little DP play ... 
But G's argument 'as a glove specialist he has to make that play' is very tough to counter IMHO... you put Gold Gloves out there in the hope that there will be one difference-making D chance that justifies his place in the lineup that day...  usually, there is not ...
This time, there was a chance for Wilson to earn his keep ... but the same thing occurred that we fear will occur today, as well... Wilson getting the yips and embarrassing himself...
............
Jack Wilson is a whale of a fine shortstop, and Brendan Ryan can play 2B... why they're being so paradigm-paralyzed about staying poised for The Callup, is kinda befuddling...  they could put Ryan at 2B for a week or two and still move him back over...
If building value is the idea, Wilson would build it a lot faster at SS...

20

the fact that League did not exactly get splashed for the blown save...
.........
Just the same, if it be true that League is not comfortable throwing a split for a called strike, his long-term effectiveness in the bigs will be limited... we saw it in Sasaki and IMHO the same will be true with League, even at +5 mph...
Today's AL closers, KRod and the like, can pull the string on the first pitch, that or their command is absolutely routine game-in game-out, like Mo Rivera's...
That is a sidearm FB thrown from a low angle and if AL hitters can sit on it, he only has to miss by a little for it to be rocked... 2010 showed us plenty of that...

21
ghost's picture

I don't get why they feel that Ryan is better suited to short in the short term than Wilson...or that moving Ryan to second and benching Wilson (or playing him at short depending on which pitcher we're facing) would screw Ryan up for when Ackley comes along...is beyond me. Maybe they have a reason I haven't considered, but I'm not seeing it. Wilson can't play for me if he can't play defense. Period. He can't play defense at second...and he might not be very good at short anymore either with his advancing age and slower foot speed beginning to show (not to mention that he's proven to be fragile when played at short full time). If you don't make that kind of play...you don't play for me without a 100 or high OPS+.

22
ghost's picture

Just saying that League pitched great last night...he looked absolutely fine to me...no sign of anything wrong with his command until Wilson spiked himself and threw the game away. If League can pinpoint the fastball exactly like he did last night all year (a tall order)...he'll go 40 for 44 in save chances or something like that. Sasaki was unhittable for a couple of years there until the wheels fell off. The same could be true for League. But I do agree...if League can't throw his splitter early in counts, he can't be my closer for longer than a year.

23

I don't understand it.  Jack has no value: he's fragile, can't hit, isn't cheap, and no longer appears to be be special in the field.  I'd see if the Giants want him (they are running the dessicated remains of Miguel Tejada out there every day), and if they don't, I cut him and split the time between Rodriguez and Kennedy until Ackley forces the M's hand.

24
Dr D's picture

If he can throw the fastball the way he has for the last month, that will render the Sasaki Syndrome relatively moot....
Puts a whale of a lot of pressure on his command and in his case I'd be a bit skeptical but okay....

25
Dr D's picture

Can't imagine the rationale other than not being able to weather the political heat, I guess.
OTOH Jack has always had a lot of faith in JW so maybe he's thinking it's simply best for the ball club to keep him in there. Couldn't side with him on that one.

26
ghost's picture

I'm not saying he's going to keep hitting spots this well...(hence the "a tall order" comment)...I'm saying that this game was not his fault...he pitched fine out there, though i agree he didn't pitch smart.

27
ghost's picture

Maybe we could get some of his cash back or a B prospect...I'd take either outcome.

28

Hey guys,  I'm not saying we should be playing J. Wilson (remember, he didn't start last night.....I was tickled pink with that, btw).  I like seeing Kennedy in there.  A whole lot!  I want to see him in there again tonight. Then I want Ackley in there Friday night.  It's time.
But, if you're looking for somebody to kick, look at Wedge.  He's the guy that made the defensive substitution.
I'm just saying that it was a very tough play that may well have been booted by anybody.
moe

30
ghost's picture

...and that WAS a great play...totally forgot about that one.  Tip of the cap for remembering that one...put a smile on my face.

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