0H 2012 Rook R'view (...Texas 9)

=== Charlie Furbish ===

Just received his assessment from the Texas Rangers:  if you plan to ask for SP dollars, you'll need a little bullpen refurbishing.

Hey, it worked for C.J. Wilson, didn't it?  C.J. spent five years getting his mechanics together and ... lo and behold, he's a staff ace now.

Original SSI glance was that Furb'sh has some decently electric stuff from that LH angle, but --- > the mechanics and the command are (in view of the "decently" part) going to get him a bad case of gopheritis.

Not ready for prime time there, playa.  Dr. D is thinking the C.J. route.

.

=== Overall ===

My man keeps reminding us, hey, teams are always running young players out there, and two years later you've forgotten them all.  Spend a little money, can'cha, Howard.

We agree with the spending money part, but you can't paint all rookie classes with the same brush, Geoffy.  If, four years ago, you'd painted Tampa Bay's rookies as "one more attempt to flimflam the season ticket holders," you'da missed the point, right?.

This isn't a generic influx of talent in Seattle.  We're watching, in the [0 Half of 2012], the following rooks:

  • A #3 hole hitter who, at the moment, looks like our version of Evan Longoria
  • A 50% chance at a perfectly decent Safeco cleanup DH
  • A #6 hitting LF, if he can get that EYE up around 0.3, 0.4
  • A 40% chance at a thrilling young CF dynamo, if he can keep his K's
  • An interesting young Chris Snelling wannabe at 3b
  • A first-year C.J. Wilson hopeful
  • That doesn't include Justin Smoak, who most definitely is The Real Deal
  • That doesn't include Michael Pineda
  • That doesn't include next year's K-Pax Project

As Bill James said, "I believe in watching the young kids take their lumps.  It makes the winning more fun later."

.

=== Coming Attractions ===

Hey, we ran out of output cards, but did get a chance to crunch that Jose Vicente Campos kid.  Anybody think he's gonna be any good?

.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

1

Remarking that this year's Mariners are unlikely to be competitive because teams like the A's(67m payroll), the Rays(42m), the Brewers (83m), the Blue Jays(70m), and the Twins(113m, but in the period he's talking about was mid-60s) have struggled to remain competitive with teams laden with in-organization talent.  He suggests (and I'm not against the idea of raising payroll) that the Mariners must raise payroll to compete with teams like the Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees.  But the Mariners payroll this year is 94 million, putting them well ahead of all (except the Twins that Baker discounts since they raised payroll) those teams that Baker says are going to be overwhelmed or are being overwhelmed competing with big payroll teams.
That payroll puts them more in line with teams like the Braves (91m) and the Cardinals(109m, over 100m first time in club history) who compete seemingly every year with a lot of in house talent.  That's where I think the Mariners are headed, resigning a lot of the best talent their system produces, getting a couple pieces from free agency and trades, and always having talented rookies available when needed.
More recently, Baker put out an article comparing the current rookie effort to 2008:
But once that season was abandoned early and the team unloaded Richie Sexson in July and Jose Vidro in August, we got to see a lot of "kids" played.

Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien were already up with the club. Bryan LaHair was playing first base. Brandon Morrow made everybody positively giddy with one September start versus the New York Yankees. Ryan Rowland-Smith was having a strong second-half as a starter. Sean Green had done a good job in the first half for the club in the bullpen. Mark Lowe was feeling better more than a year removed from microfracture surgery on his arm. Jose Lopez hit just below .300 with 17 homers and 89 RBI and was going to break out as the next power-hitting second baseman in the big leagues. Rob Johnson got his first taste of the majors and at that time, many fans were still excited about his potential. Matt Tuiasosopo was called up as well and wow, a local kid at that. Mike Morse was there, too.

LaHair, Clement, and Balentien ranged from 150 to 260 PA, and only Clement got people excited, Tuiasosopo, Johnson, and Mike Morse were all limited to less than 50 plate appearances, Sean Green was in his 3rd ML season, Jose Lopez was in his 5th.  The only "kids" that saw a lot of play that season were Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith (and Ryan Feierabend got a handful of starts).
Comparing that to this year;  Smoak, Ackley, Peguero, and Saunders have all already eclipsed 150 PA, and before the end of the season, so will have Carp and Wells, and perhaps Seager and Robinson.  This was Pineda's, Furbush's, and Beaven's rookie season and all 3 will likely finish the year as starters, Lueke, Cortes, and Willhemsen have all been given real shots in the bullpen as well.  Going starter by starter, right now, the Mariners have 6 position players (if you count Seager at 3rd) under 30 and only Ryan is close.  The entire starting rotation now in way under 30, as is everybody in the bullpen except Jamey Wright.  This is a signficantly more 'real' playing of the kids than anything the Mariners have done before.

2

Have been arguing along with Baker's payroll argument since trade deadline 2001, but you offer a strong clarification re: the Braves and Cardinals.
Your point-by-point on the young players also resonates.  ... you can compare, say, Casper Wells to Wlad Balentien and/or Jose Lopez at the time, but there weren't any Ackleys or Smoaks a few years ago.  As well, I don't remember any of them who could hold up to Carp's current results with any scrutiny.
:cpoints:

3
Taro's picture

I don't like the idea of relying on high-risk guys like Trayvon and Wells to fill two long-term holes in the OF.
Guti needs to get healthy ASAP.
Give Seager a look. None of the other internal 3B options are realistic.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.