I/O:  Matthew Heuett says The Run Is Back.  He does a nice job with some game pics, showing that zone run blocking  

.... in its simplest form calls for the o-line to turn and run to one side or the other, as though they were cars on a railroad track, and any defenders who try to move across that track are blocked and taken along for the ride.  The farther the o-line is able to push the defense sideways, the more likely the run is going to be successful.  (Just so you have a point of reference, by the time the running back crosses the line of scrimmage, the zone block should have pushed the defensive tackles past where the offensive tackle was lined up at the beginning of the play.)

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Um, okay, sounds logical, but can you football fans explain whether lines try this against players like Albert Haynesworth, Dan Hampton, or (in college) Steve Emtman?  

Trap-blocking and cross-blocking is fine, but against some of these animals you don't even have time to get your hands up to block them, much less take three steps and then "drag them along for a ride"...

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We digress.  The last two games, Marshawn Lynch has looked just a leeeeeettle different when running in space.  

It makes you wonder whether Lynch has been a victim of his O-line.  Because you get the guy a little bubble of air and suddenly, he looks like every linebacker's worst nightmare.   Ah well.  Explain that one to me also. Is it possible that Lynch is an NFL-caliber tailback who has consistently been a victim of circumstances?  Naaaah.

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Heuett notes that, in the first two games, the Seahawks averaged 2.5 yards per carry, but in the three since, they've been well over four.

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I/O:  Advanced NFL Stats -- using the football equivalent of VORP, sort of -- has the Seahawks as the #32 team in the NFL, and the 49ers #17.

CRUNCH:  I don't know much about football, but I do know that I have seen much, much worse Seattle Seahawks teams than this one.

If this team is #32 of 32 teams, what were the Tom Flores teams?  #41 of 32?

The last 7 years in the NFL, there has always been a team that lost 14 or more games.  Often there are two such teams.  Several times, a team went 1-15 or even 0-16.

A #32 team wins 0, 1, or 2 games.  The Seahawks are not going to win 0, 1, or 2 games.  The question in my mind is whether they'll win 8, or even 9.

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So what does that mean about "advanced NFL stats"?  I don't know, but I do know that life is too complex to be captured by an 11-variable algebraic formula.

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