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=== Sour Puss, Dept. ===
Seventh inning, 1-0 pitcher's duel, but the Mariners do get two baserunners. Filthy right hand pitcher on the mound. Right hand pitcher, Koji Uehara, in the bullpen.
Miguel Olivo is up. The stats say this: he's 3-for-23, all hits being three scratch singles. He has 0 walks and 5 strikeouts on the year. The scout's eye says this: he is swinging lousy.
John Jaso is the left hand hitter on the bench (along with RH Casper Wells, RH Brendan Ryan and RH Alex Liddi). In the 8th and 9th will come the Rangers' awesome setup-closer combo. Here in the 7th, with two baserunners on, this is the ballgame.
The only justification for John Jaso is for him to ... um ... HIT in this situation. At the very least, you have Casper Wells hit, and Jaso takes over behind the plate for the bottom of the 7th. So which batter will decide the ballgame?
tween trips passing kidney stones."
You could reply, "Well, what would the M's do with Jaso's roster slot?" I could reply: "Get you some MLB(TM) vet, Luis Rodriguez or Adam Kennedy or somebody, who can pinch hit. They been keeping guys like that around since Gates Brown."
You could reply, "Jaso was put on the roster when we thought Carp and Guti would be here, and if Seager or Saunders would have been on the bench, Wedge woulda used one." I'd reply, okay, that one has a little more merit, but still: Jaso is not there to hit, we can see that.
You could reply, "Jaso hasn't played enough to stay sharp, so he can't pinch-hit tonight." And I could reply, "Exactly."
Bah humbug,
Jeff
I was pretty sure when 2 of the situations came up in Japan (extra innings and pinch hit opportunity) that I was wrong. Now it seems Jaso is purely emergency backup, he didnt even get in last night when Wedge was handing out mercy at bats in a hopeless 9th to Liddi and Wells, but Olivo still got his ups. Too bad.
Which may be your SSI handle going forward :- ) ... hopefully it came across that we thought your observation was a good one...
I was wondering too whether that was what Wedge had in mind, and if so, it would be a dynamic way to handle the roster.
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Simply turns out that the C (for captain) is the factor that trumps your suggestion, which is Wedge's prerogative...
But if that's how it's going to be, how about going and getting us a 30-something pinch hitter, and using him...
:daps: Mal.
When Olivo was up at that point in the game. He was swinging a foot over pitches and two seconds late. He had no business being up there with the game on the line. Why even HAVE a bench if you won't use it? THAT'S the time. A base hit ties the game, extra bases puts League on the mound after Wilhelmsen to win it.
Ballgame.
And you go with Olivo? You had a whole year to figure out if he can hit righties (he can't - though to be fair he can't hit lefties either) or work walks (again, negatory). You HAVE the lefty catcher for this reason, who hits lefties better AND can work walks to get to the next hitter if all else fails.
Olivo is useful for one thing: when he does get a hit, it usually goes some place. But it happens so infrequently that you're better off playing the handedness odds with a rusty hitter.
Which we did not do, and thus lost the game.
I'm with you - why bother having Jaso on the team at all? Horrible way to go into the night with a whimper.
~G
If this might mean, rather than Jaso being the emergency catcher, that he's the back up and Montero is the emergency guy. One would think, since they're currently desperate to get Kawasaki and Seager into the lineup, that Ackley or perhaps Seager gets a a start in the DH spot and Olivo sits, tonight would have been a good game for that, maybe we'll see that sometime soon. Another thought occurs though, yesterday was Noesi, today Beavan, in the lion's den that is Texas, maybe Wedge wanted as much hand holding for the young cubs as he could get. I think tomorrow will tell whether Wedge will try to run Olivo out for 150 games, Milwood can call his own game, doesn't matter if it's Olivo, Jaso, or Montero catching. If someone who isn't Olivo isn't catching tomorrow, I don't expect to see it happen unless Olivo can't.
"Why the heck isn't Jaso swinging here?" That thought crossed my mind.
Then I thought, "Why the heck aren't Liddi or Wells swinging here, if Jaso is only window dressing?"
I'm still searching for an answer.
Heck, Ryan would have been a better call than letting Olivo do a rusty gate act.
For that matter, Larry Fernandez would have been, too.
Inexplicable.
moe
the continuity of a successful game behind the plate in a 1-0 game?
That's a real question on my part, not a statement dressed as one, and I direct it to those who've played some serious baseball at higher levels and have an informed opinion.
I fully realize that:
(a) you are BEHIND in the game, so run-SCORING takes on a higher urgency than run-PREVENTION.
(b) some, perhaps all of the options on the bench are better than Olivo in that situation.
(c) with the quality of the Rangers' 8th/9th relief the opportunity presented in the 7th with 2 out could be your last.
Those three factors alone seem to dictate you pinch hit for Olivo. Yet Wedge didn't pinch hit for Olivo. In the absence of an explanation from him, we're left to speculate why he didn't do it. Despite the clear indicators above, some other consideration(s) tipped the scales of decision back in the direction of letting Olivo hit.
Now it could be argued that Wedge just didn't think of it, or he did but he's an idiot, or some such explanation, but I think those can be safely set aside. Wedge was implementing his managerial instincts and knowledge as applied to that situation. Is it possible that despite the by-the-book thinking of (a) above, Wedge felt that in this specific game run-prevention took on a continued importance that outweighed an increased chance at run-scoring. And is it possible that Wedge judged that with the Rangers' potent offense, a single run in the 7th could easily (or would likely?) be answered by more runs than that in their final three at-bats? And is it possible that Wedge felt his best chance at suppressing the Rangers and keeping the M's within a run was Olivo behind the plate? After all, Olivo had been behind the plate for six successful innings, calling the game, handling the pitchers.
In this line of thinking, if the pinch-hit question had involved a left-fielder, or a third baseman, etc., then Wedge would have opted for the increased chance of scoring. But just how much do managers value continuity at catcher in a tight, low-scoring ballgame?
Thus my question, to which I would LOVE to hear some knowledgable responses.
Maybe he wanted Olivo's "vaunted" defensive and pitch calling abilities behind the plate.
but if we didn't score, it wouldn't matter if he had Johnny Bench behind the plate.
Scoring a run, at that point in a 1-0 game, was more important than preventing hypothetical runs.
moe
"Olivo is calling SUCH a good game behind the plate that I can't afford to lose him for the last two innings, even to up our odds of pushing across an insurance run a bit."
But that wasn't the case. We needed the run. Our two best bullpenners are coming out and they're gonna throw tons of unhittable fastballs - it's the runs crossing the plate for us that matter.
And we chose to do nothing and go down meekly. Olivo hit a 30 foot dribbler that the pitcher mishandled and he STILL couldn't get on base.
I don't think Wedge is stupid, but I also don't think he put the Mariners in the best position to take advantage of this opportunity.
Whether he was weighting Olivo's state of mind more heavily, or Jaso's, or the captaincy, or the 32 flavors of ice cream he was planning on sampling after the game I dunno...
But the weight of that at-bat on this loss wasn't correctly accounted for.
~G
in that particular decision he wasn't optimally smart either?
But are you really saying he was not sufficiently attuned to the fact that we were down 1-0 and the only way to remedy that was to score a run, most likely right then and there?
Or are you saying that he was willing to fail to give himself the best chance at winning that game due to factors beyond the game itself. That, of course, is a perfectly reasonable explanation given sufficient "factors beyond the game itself."
When your team is up-and-coming, and you have fifty gazillion bats to try out for 14 slots and you are trying to get people to buy into the notion that they need to perform or perish...YOU CANNOT HAVE an entitled vet...ANY entitled vet...in there on a daily basis doing his best to air condition TBIA with his horrendous swings just because "he's a pro and the team captain." That's bull and everyone knows it. Olivo is DONE. He's doner than done. If Wedge can't bring himself to sit the guy even in close games where a lefty bat might help us win...then he can't have his teacher's pet. The teacher's pet must be fired for Wedge's own good.
Agree that in a 1-0 game, those considerations are important. But if performance behind the plate is key, than isn't it a factor that the only run the Rangers scored all night was a passed ball on the account of Olivo?
It seems to me the announcers said that play was scored as a wild pitch, but Olivo is constantly failing to adequately block pitches that most catchers I have seen succeed in blocking. Of course, that has to be balanced with his control of the running game, his handling of pitchers, and his game-calling.
Trust me, I'm not suggesting that from my perch in the cheap seats (i.e., TV at home) I agree with what Wedge decided. I'm just wondering WHY he decided what he did.
But sure, what Olivo giveth he often taketh away. It's hard for me to consider that I've ever seen a game where the ball doesn't inexplicably get past him or bounce off him with runners on base one or two times a game, although the actual stats indicate that it's just selective memory on my part.
I think it's so early in the year that Wedge had to give that at-bat to Olivo. Now that he's been given the opportunity and didn't perform, Wedge can point to that at-bat as justification for pinch hitting Jaso for Olivo next time.
Without setting that precedent, it's just a slap in the face to Olivo, IMO.
given that Wedge is a former catcher. To him Olivo, despite his weaknesses, plays ball The Right Way, The Way A Catcher Should Play. Perhaps Wedge overvalues the contributions of a catcher. Or perhaps not. Perhaps it is we that undervalue it, and Wedge knows better than we do.
To me, the only acceptable reason to have "entitled" veteran players on an up-and-coming team like your 2012 Seattle Mariners, is to mentor the young arms. You need someone who's been around the league before when your rotation is filled with grade A prospects making their debuts.
However, our grade A prospects are still sitting in Jackson.
Get Olivo out of here. Really, anyone who slides head first in first base should be DFA'd. Stupidest play ever. Rewarding guys who "hustle" in demonstrably negative ways is counter-productive.
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And about my boy Beavan - he's got a number 5 spot in my rotation any time. All he does? Throw quality starts. Keep at 'em. And keep reminding them that you are doing it in the big leagues and are still 2 months younger than AA Jackson stud James Paxton. *whistles* nothing to see here *whistles*
- Ben.
When you're behind on the scoreboard, you want activity, events, chaos, action. When you're ahead you want the game to be still.
Backgammon, you're losing, you want to leave blots around the board, tempt the other player to leave them in order to hit, just muddy the water. It's your only chance.
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At the time Olivo stepped to the plate, the Rangers had a 33% chance of losing -- assuming an out there, their chance of losing drops to 23%. You've got to do something.
That is assuming (1) an average Rangers bullpen and (2) an average Mariners lineup.
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100 years of baseball wisdom is 100% aligned with game theory. If you're behind, do everything you can to get tied or ahead, and worry about protecting the lead later.
Wedge is well aware of the imperative to pinch hit there. ANY manager is well aware of the fact that "the book" says pinch hit.
And that "the book" underlines this with a Feliz vs Olivo situation. It ain't like Wedge doesn't know Feliz is nasty and that Olivo strikes out a lot.
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He is weighting other factors, such as not wanting to show Olivo up, "get Olivo rolling" as with the late Japan at-bats, Jaso being very rusty, etc.
That's his prerogative, and there's a logic behind it. What I don't like is putting a 3rd catcher on the roster. If Olivo is your mule.
That was a passed ball for me. Too much glove, too little chest protector.
Not trying to crucify Olivo. But the idea that you can't play Jaso behind the plate in a close game late... if that's true, You Know What To Do.
Like your last six comments have been fresh, even for you... ;- )
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I don't begrudge a manager his pet strategies, such as a defensive second baseman (Dick Williams) ... or leaving an SP for 2-3 extra hitters (Earl) .... or pitchers who will throw challenge pitches (Lou) or a super tough catcher who is an org rah-rah guy (Wedge) ....
The pet themes are part of who a manager is, and what makes him one of the 0.0002% who can lead a major league clubhouse...
You a ballplayer by any chance?
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Not being a ballplayer, there's something I'm genuinely fuzzy on: Wedge has had Olivo before, right? The precedent doesn't consist of their established relationship?
If Wedge pinch-hits for Montero, the kid might wonder whether Wedge is losing confidence or whatnot. If he pinch-hits for Olivo, then Olivo is going to know that he and Wedge are still fine.
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I kinda thought Wedge was in "serve notice" mode. The other team captain, Brendan Ryan, was sitting out because of a careless throw the day before :- )
It's not gonna do him any good to take a year off from swinging the bat just to hope for a couple of emergency innings at some point. Olivo's already had several rest days, both on the way back from Japan and on Easter Sunday, so it's not like Wedge has already shown his hand and will be driving Olivo into the ground for another career high 130+ games this year.
But Jaso will be around next year while Olivo may or may not be, and Montero is still supposed to catch games too. Jaso's gotta play this year - if not for the Mariners, then in the minors.
Except Moore needs to play too, and is playing well in his first few games recovering from that broken wrist. If Jaso is demoted to play, he's cutting into Moore's time. Maybe that doesn't matter, maybe it does.
I never thought we'd have too many catchers, but...we'll see. I'm with moe - if Olivo (or Millwood for that matter) is gonna be here to get a lot of time mentoring young pitchers, then add ALL the young pitchers. Why have him mentor your B team of Beavan and Delabar and Noesi when Paxton, Hultzen and half your bullpen 2013 bullpen are down in the upper minors?
We'd better see significant promotions in May and June unless the big leaguers are just killing it. So far it looks like Delabar can stay and Sherrill can go, ASAP. Beavan's making himself hard to dislodge (good for him, keep it up). Noesi and Millwood get a few starts to show whether they should be with us, and in what capacity.
But it looks like Olivo is pretty well entrenched, to Jaso's detriment. Our first long stretch without a scheduled day off starts the last week of April - I want to see how we shuffle Jaso, Olivo and Montero behind the plate, but we probably won't see all three shuffled until maybe that stretch through the first week and a half of May.
I don't want to see Olivo for more than 100 games this year, and ideally not more than 90. Let Montero or Jaso catch Felix - he calls his own game anyway. Same with Vargas and potentially Millwood for as long as he's here. Olivo can work with the kids for the first stretch.
Another thing that's not gonna happen, I guess.
~G
Olivo is a career .222-.265-.393 hitter vR.
Jaso is a career .254-.342-.379 hitter vR.
Even Wells is .262-.329-.469 vR.
At that point, with the tying run on 3rd, more than enough precedent had been set throughout their careers.
Wedge botched this one.
Does he hold himself accountable and bench himself for a game?
BTW, all the metrics point to Ryan's value with the glove, perhaps the best in the game. So you bench him for a bad toss?
Do you bench Pujols for a strikeout to end a game?
When Verlander has a bad start, do you bench/punish him the next game?
Uh.....not me.
moe
Does he hold himself accountable and bench himself for a game?
:- ) One of yer best lines Moe.
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Gotta admire the gunnery-sergeant approach, in the year 2012, but it ain't easy to pull off for any length of time. If he can do it, without making his players bitter, then we as fans are the ones who win.
James Paxton and Erasmo Ramirez would go a long ways towards helping him pull it off, for the rest of 2012 ...
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Re: benching Ryan ... it's not unusual for coaches to take a teacher's pet like Ryan and agree with them, "When I need to fire the guys up, I'll yell at you, okay?"
No sense playing percentages. Same situation, same inning, deathly RH reliever in, SS up to bat, and we...
Decide to let Brendan Ryan swing away rather than pinch-hitting the LH hitting Kawasaki.
What in the world is going on? We have Kawasaki RIGHT THERE ready to hit. It's one of the few times we can actually swap in a lefty, since Jaso is in the game already.
And we just...fritter away the runner at 2nd.
GAH. Wedge is gonna kill me and it's still the first week of the season.
~G
Ryan's gonna get up and we can't turn the position into an LH HITTER because KAWASAKI IS RUNNING.
"Ryan hasn't gotten the ball out of the infield in this series."
Yes, I know that, Rangers announcers. Apparently Wedge is having a stupid attack.
~G
I hate Wedge.
For at least a few minutes. Just terrible.
Thank you Jaso - hey look what happens when all our hitters have handedness advantage. You'd think it helps or something.
~G
And I'll stop blowing up this thread now.
But can someone in a press conference ask Wedge why he refuses to pinch-hit for C and SS, knowing we HAVE oppo-handed backups for JUST that reason?
Almost cost us this one, and potentially 2 in a row.
Now - time to celebrate a much needed early-season win.
~G
Not just oppo-handed hitters available, but MUCH better hitters available.
Because they are epically awful vs. same handed pitching
Jaso OPS vs. Career OPS L/R:
.605/.720
Olivo OPS vs. Career OPS L/R:
.795/.658 (.643/.640 last year, and he's a 33 year old catcher)
Brendan Ryan Career OPS L/R:
.670/.645
League Pinch Hitting OPS Last Year:
.618
I think there are advantages to pinch hitting even with the lesser OPS, such as getting a guy that can bunt, run, or take a pitch, but I get why Wedge would neglect pinch hitting, especially with a bench that (other than Kawasaki) has hardly been touched so far this season. I don't agree with it either, but I can see why Wedge would leave whoever in there.
Make some solid contact after a bunch of strikeouts and popouts his last 10 PAs.
Don't remember Wedge doing any pinch hitting last year either.
Maybe next time you could launch a game thread if you're watching TV and at a keyboard? I know you'll have one avid reader...