1
Was disappointed Correa and Bruxton were off the board, but I think the Ms did what they had to do under the circumstances. The silver lining is that he will be a quick to the majors guy.
Mike Zunino, C, Florida - SSI pre-draft $0.01
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===You Won't Get Any Argument About ... ? ===
... Mike Zunino being the best college position player in this draft. He therefore is, in principle, the least risky pick in the entire draft, and you turn losers into winners by making sure you get something out of your top picks, every time.
Zduriencik used high picks to grab Fielder, Weeks, Braun, etc, and turn the Milwaukee Brewers into an organization that commands respect throughout baseball. He's used his 1st-rounders in Seattle the same way, to grab Ackley, Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin. Zunino would follow on that theme.
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... Zunino being a good defensive catcher who's going to play that position in the majors. We'll be mercifully spared the horde of bloggers stampeding to position themselves as True Aficionados Who Appreciate Defense, by arguing that a young player should be moved to an easier position.
The more emphatic you are about moving a "tweener" out of his glove spot (cf. Keith Law pounding his fist last winter that Montero should have been moved to DH a long time ago), the more "purist" you are, them's the rules. This won't happen with Zunino. Thank the stars for small favors.
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... Zunino being a Varitek-style leader, a great org guy, yada yada.
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... Zunino having an intriguing ML bat with good plate discipline and legit power.
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=== What's Fresh About 'Im? ===
Dr. D is indeed very impressed by the swing.
Reminds a lot of ARod, if the top hand didn't come off the bat. He takes a wide stance, just lifts the foot a little, nods the head into the strike zone and chops down real hard on the ball, generating loft and leverage at the same time. He's short to the pitch, quiet head, a big strong guy with natural power, and he likes to read the pitch before decides whether to swing. His calmness is palpable.
Here's a video that gives a good sense of it. Notice the lightness of the bat in his hands, the delay while the pitch is in the air (Zunino deciphers the pitch, not "cheating" on it), and the quickness of the bat launch. You can also see the "hitting down on the ball" effect that the M's talk so much about with Jesus Montero.
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On all of these top 5-6 draft candidates, it is going to come down to intuition, the Magic Sparkle Dust where Tom McNamara looks at one candidate and says THAT one. THAT one will translate.
Dr. D cheerfully concedes he can't visualize any of these players three years on, like he felt he could on other guys, Pineda, Lincecum, Ackley, Fister, etc. This draft class is considered quite weak and does not seem to have easy calls in it. In Jack we trust...
That said, Zunino's vids look real good, like a 1-1 pick real good. His stats could kind of go either way, but the scout's eye clears the selection for takeoff.
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Comments
2
Not crazy about this pick..
When they selected Hultzen last year, I didn't feel he was the best player on the board but still destined to be a very good player. With Zunino I just feel like the chances of a bust are high.
3
I said it last week...this draft blows. I have no interest in it at all and frankly don't care one iota who Zduriencik and crew picked since they all won't help the club for four years.
4
While true, Zunino was my least favorite pick of a weak projected top 5.
He has wierd pitch recognition issues (can't sit in between fastball and offspeed even at the college level). Its shows in a mediocre eye and relatively high Ks. Really concerned how hes going to translate at higher levels in the minors.
5
No player is truly safe, but I don't see how he's a greater risk than anyone else. The alternative was either pitchers or high school hitters. How were they a better risk?
6
In the NFL this is a pick we would "trade down." In MLB you have to "trade down" after the fact. So you pick the guy with a high floor. He won't be Clement behind the plate, so the bottom will not fall out from under him value-wise.
I don't like that his K% went up and production went down in SEC play, but I also don't know that it proves anything other than a cold streak. The whole team went kind of cold during that stretch.
This kind of guy is right in the Jack and Mac sweet spot, and it will not shock me if they take 2-3 other Gators in the same way they took 3 guys off the 09 UNC team and 3 guys off the 11 UVa team.
7
But I don't have to be thrilled about it. I expect Zunino to have a long pro career, and I hope that Jack is right about him. I mean, here's how much Tom and Jack gushed about Zunino and his game-changing potential:
Tom: "He's steady. He doesn't jump out and wow you like other players. What you get at the end of the day is a steady, hard-nosed tough kid who has power and can really catch."
Jack: "He's a nice looking player. He's a tough kid. You think about that position. It's very difficult to fill it as we know and everyone in baseball knows. When you have a kid with the pedigree and leadership skills, as well as the chance to hit the ball out of the ballpark, I thought it was a real nice package."
Oh wait, I agree with that. He doesn't wow you, he's steady and hard-nosed, it's a tough position to fill and he's a "real nice" package. He'll be a big-leaguer and get in a number of years. At what level is debatable, and I guess I don't feel like he's Brian McCann, he doesn't walk enough to be Carlos Santana, he doesn't hit enough to be Buster Posey...
"Pretty good catcher who's a bad fit for the park" is a tough thing for me to swallow with the 3rd pick.
Add that in with Jack basically saying, "Zunino is a good receiver, and we like Montero (nothing about him as a catcher) and luckily we have a DH in this league" it sure shapes up like Montero is not long for the main catching job. We can hope that we can get a V-Mart / Avila thing going on, but I don't think Zunino is that good a hitter.
And if Jack felt he was he'd probably have said it. I know I under-rate the non-stat intangibles that a catcher adds, and that getting another shot at a Varitek-type of leader behind the plate would be good, especially if he can hit balls out of this park.
Let's hope for that. If Zunino is McCann or Matt Wieters, then hey! Great call, Jack. He always could be. Jack and Tom usually know what they're doing and have a great ability to pick out the right guy from a pool of similar talents. We need that skill to work out for us in this case.
And I'll need to get over my top-3 catcher dislike. Be great, Mike - don't settle for "pretty good." All things considered, I'd prefer to be wowed.
~G
8
It's not as if the people who aren't throwing their cups over the pick have low standards. It's simply a matter of recognizing that a) Zunino is a good player and b) there weren't any other options that were mind-blowing. I really didn't care who we picked since all the players had their issues and I trust that McNamara was far more capable of a discerning who was the best player than me or anyone else.
9
There's nothing inherently wrong with that in a draft where there weren't a lot of obviously stratospheric ceilings. Zunino will be a big-leaguer. Buxton could flop around as Greg Halman for a few years and make the safe pick look like the smart one too.
We didn't draft an arm that could blow out or a toolsy player who might not hit. If Zunino hits a little he'll stick in the league. If he hits a lot he'll be stupendous. Somewhere in between is an okay place to be - and if Zunino wants to go Gary-Carter-Berzerk instead I won't hold it against him that I was wrong.
~G
10
I don't know if I agree that Zunino has a high floor. The length of his swing and pitch recognition issues concern me.
Z and co. usually make their money in the later rounds anyhow.. They were never going to reach for Dahl or Seager..
11
Here's the press conference where that Seattle Times article got their quotes from. atmlb.com/NdGOtI
Look, it's 4 in the mornin' and I've been up all night with this in my head like a dog with a bone. Watch that press conference. I'll wait.
I'm certainly no expert but here's my take. Jack looks like his intern just ran over his dog. He's chewing rocks and his mind's distracted. His media savvy takes over but you can tell that it's a veneer.
Tommy Mac looks like a caged tiger. His hands are on his hips. While sitting. He is literally wild eyed and is pleading with Jack to take over so he can run away. Then he says something about 7 min. in that should make any fan's stomach do a slow roll: "I don't want to go back in that draft room."
Most of this audience has participated in some form of fantasy baseball. To almost all of you, I would imagine, the draft is the best part of the experience. Tommy Mac lives and breathes his draft. He gets the resources to make his own draft Bat-Cave and he wants to run and hide from it. He described a chaotic scene in that room that he wants to be no more a part of.
Look at how they're speaking. Tommy is all, "Talking point 1, talking point 2." and Jack Z has to butt in to answer the question asked because it was about talking point 7.
You try to tell the Emporer that the Huns neatly avoided your ambush, laid waste to your undefeatable army, and now there is nothing between them and the Imperial Palace. You'd have the same mannerisms that Mac displayed. If they had gotten their guy then they wouldn't have been able to wait to tell you all about him. Instead we get an air of, "Maybe next round, if we can regroup."
It all adds up to one thing to me. Tommy Mac used his magic-sparkle-dust to identify Correa as "the one." When he was gone, everyone else available was two tiers down.
I like Zunino. It's obvious to me that the org ain't so hot on 'im.
12
"I liked him as a high school player,'' he said. "I liked his defense and leadership ability. I knew he had instincts. He comes from a baseball family. When he signed with Florida, we tracked him. We've watched him for three years.
It kind of reminds me of Brandon Morrow in a way. I'm guessing he eventually gets traded after spending a little time in the majors like Morrow as well.
13
Does anyone know where to find defensive video or stats of Zunino?
14
Scroll down for defensive stats here.
Threw out 20 of 45 baserunners. Had 4 passed balls.
This video, in addition to lame-o local sports guy, has Zunino gunning down a runner and hitting 2 HR.
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It was his eye for picking early talent that he made his name with. Tom McNamara has been better in later rounds (3-10), which has been a nice complement to Jack's first and 2nd round prowess. I hope both men are good again this year.
By high floor I just mean that even if Zunino is Rod Barajas he's still a major leaguer for many years. If Buxton is a Greg Halman / Kalian Sams type of power-hitting OF with poor contact skills, he doesn't have a long major league career in front of him.
I'm right with you on concerns about Zunino's contact rate and he's not a defensive whiz either. He's solid. Zunino's a solid catcher with a power stroke. He's also a decent athlete (though I have doubts about his bat playing off position).
I dunno man, morning after I'm still having trouble jumping up and down and going, "Woo! Zunino!"
Maybe I need more coffee.
~G
16
Zunino played in the SEC in 2011, too:
30 G, 116 AB, .422/.477/.750 14 dbl, 8 HR, 12 BB, 19 K
In 2012:
30 G, 110 AB, .255/.336/.509 13 dbl, 5 HR, 12 BB, 19 K
He was hot in SEC games in 2011 and cold in SEC games in 2012. Exactly, prescisely the same eye both seasons.
I don't think it proves anything. Limited data ("small sample size" as some would say).
17
If this is, indeed, the case then Tommy Mac and Jack Z have to be sick about the fact that a future division rival, the Astros, got THE GUY.
18
for sure, with all that talk about leadership and character, and very little about raw tools. But everything I read and hear about Zunino suggests his upside is somewhere around Carlton Fisk or Darrell Porter, and his lowside is Dan Wilson. In fact, I would say he has a better chance at being Fisk or Porter than Buxton or Correa have of being Griffey or ARod. Yeah, I'll take it: a "baseball rat" catcher who is a collegiate superstar, a natural leader on the diamond, hits with power. Yeah, the swing may be a tad long. We may have to settle for 15 home runs a season. I can see us winning our championship with a catcher like this young man.
At the same time, the Mariner record for picking up first round catchers is less than stellar. Remember Christiansen? Oh, sorry. Shouldn't have reminded you all. Well, there will be all sorts of future Seagers and Catricalas and Nick Franklins to acquire and develop. But leaders of the kind this kid has demonstrated at the collegiate level? Hey, if you got a chance to draft for leadership, and get a good catcher besides, seems to me that's a good way to use a first round draft pick. Lord knows we've drafted a lot of toolsy guys up there over the years who didn't pan out, either as a player or a leader.
19
During Jack Z's interview on the Kevin Calabro Show with Jim Moore and Steve Sandmeyer yesterday (06/04/12, hour 3) he all but confirmed that they liked Buxton and Correa more than Zunino. His quote was along the lines of, "At the end of the day we took the best player available to us."
20
During the press conference, you can tell they weren't excited, the same way Pete Carroll was when he got Bruce Irvin, or even last year when they got Hultzen. They only "liked" his tools, they didn't love them, and they talked more about his glove and receiving then they did his bat.
Judging by the pre-draft interviews, I agree they were hoping Correa would fall to them.
You have to wonder then, if they didn't love him, why not pick a pitcher there? The 3 college arms aren't Bauer/Hultzen, but they're still advanced, or you could take the flier on Giolito/Fried and hope for the best. We have one of the best pitching development systems in baseball. It could free you up to trade for an advanced OF bat, a Wil Myers type.
I have a feeling this was a political pick. Z wanted Zunino, because he personally knew his parents, and McNamara wanted an arm. The room was divided, and Z made the final call. That's why the draft room was so hectic, half the guys agreed with Z, the other half with McNamara. After Correa was taken, they had 10 stressful minutes to decide. I think that's also why McNamara looked more out of it then Z did, he spent a year working for this draft and was one-upped by the boss in the end. That little slip about "I don't want to go back in that draft room" was intentional,
21
Thanks man. Might search for some scouting vid later on.
22
I'd have to agree I'd prefer to have seen Correa or Buxton in Mariner teal, but I do believe Zunino was the M's guy all along. You look around at the Jim Callises, Jonathan Mayos, and Keith Laws and their info is fairly solid. Gausman or Buxton to the Twins, Zunino to the M's, Gausman or Fried to the O's, college pitcher to the Royals, Almora to the Cubs, Giolito in the teens. There's not much misdirection with the MLB draft, and honestly not much competitive advantage that could be gained by it. There's some uncertainty - which could be because the teams themselves don't know yet - but the solid info that does leak out is legit. Everyone was calling Zunino to the M's, he's the player they wanted.
The problem with franchise catchers is that they burn out. I'm definitely not opposed to having two everyday catchers in the starting lineup, swapping off at 1B/DH when they're not catching. This allows you to extend their catching life, keeps them fresher in-season (plus fewer off days needed = more AB's), and allows greater flexibility with your bench. If both Zunino and Montero are in the starting lineup and neither one's catching more than 4 days a week, then the need for a traditional backup C is greatly reduced. That extra bench spot could open up the possibility for a .900 OPS platoon at a position that would otherwise be a weakness, or you could carry a more offensive C who typically wouldn't have enough defense to be the exclusive backup. You're just about gaining a 26th roster spot - how much do you think that advantage would be worth to teams?
Regarding Zunino specifically, don't think we're getting a Mike Piazza bat and I suspect 35 HR's would be more hope than expected projection. However, there's a reason Jason Varitek was the team captain of all those great Red Sox teams and not Schilling, Beckett, Ortiz, or Manny. The SP's, Ackley, Montero, and hopefully Smoak and Franklin will all be bigger stars, but Zunino will be the leader and identity of the team. Would not be at all surprised if we look back five years from now and consider 2012 to be the draft where we obtained the key piece of the rebuild.
23
Dribbler to short -- he forces a bad throw to reach, runs score.
HR to left.
http://www.ncaa.com/video/baseball/2012-06-09/baseball-northcarolinastat...
24
For example, on the HR, look at the whippiness of the rebound after he finishes his followthrough. That's wrists and forearms.
Some guys waggle the bat around, in setup, like it weighs absolutely nothing. Zunino from the elbows down has got some serious mojo goin' on. So did Edgar.
Don't think that Zunino was their first choice, but looks like serious upside to me.
25
No, I know what you mean. ;-)
When he catches one with that sort of uppercut swing in the bigs it should leave the yard too. He doesn't have warning-track power, not with the HR numbers 2 years running with the new composite bats.
I just remember him getting his hands on wood bats in the Cape Cod league, getting in a handful of games, looking atrocious and quitting because he "needed rest." Which might mean he needed rest, and might mean a wood bat is not nearly as light in his hands as I want it to be.
That's what I really want to know - does he swing like that with wood consistently? How often does he square em up?
Still, as far as defense goes I have no qualms with him. He calls his own games now, where a lot of college catchers don't. For all that I loved Posey he certainly didn't call all his own games. Defense + power in a catcher means we shouldn't quibble about too much before getting a better look at him in the minors. Posey has a more level swing for better zone coverage (and average, IMO) but he uppercuts em when they're low and in too - it's a good stroke to have in your bag o' tricks, and Zunino will need it to get em out of the Safe.
Like you said, good forearms and hands, to go with his leadership potential. If he handles the staff, throws out runners and hits 15-20 bombs a year you can't ask much more. As long as he walks more than Olivo, anyway. The upside on a power catcher who can handle his business behind the plate is staggering - here's hoping we get lucky and Zunino hits his. Though I would settle for good, and he has a skillset that should make "good" a reasonable target.
~G
26
My understanding was, that the minimum weight in NCAA was 3 oz. less than the length in inches, so that a 35" bat had to weigh at least 32 ounces.
Don't follow NCAA much - are the bats substantially lighter than in MLB? 32 ounces would be pretty typical in MLB.
Thought the weight was comparable, and haven't noticed a lot of college vids showing kids brandishing the bat like a toothpick that way, but would actually like some info on that. Obviously the wooden bat is an adjustment that everybody talks about.
Good stuff G.
27
But the reason the older ones swung much more easily is that they would shift where the weight was centered down towards the handle. So the head of the bat comes around faster because all the weight isn't in the head of it.
While they weigh the same, they swing very differently. If anybody happens to know if the new bats are also weighted differently that'd be great 'put, but it was my understanding that weighting practices did not have to change, it just had to meet BBCOR regs.
Which means even if the bats perform more like wood (though still with better sweet spots and more forgiveness than wood) they swing differently.
As a strong dude you would think that wouldn't mess Zunino up much, though.
~G