Very cool, Doc: Thames = Peguero's best case scenario.
Man, I wish I had thought of that. Golf clap for you!
If you cut Peggy's K rate down from 39% (where it lives today) to a sustainable rate of, say, 24%, what would that look like? Well, I'll be darned, it would look a lot like Thames.
Give Peguero the ability to chase down a fly ball and not quite look like a horse on skates and he looks a lot like Thames.
OK, I'll admit that the balls Thames hits are only speeding bullets compared to Peg's Superman-speed shots, but Thames does it on a fairly regular basis, which was always part of the Peguero what-if.
Thames is a guy who will K and won't walk much. Accordingly, he will always have some ugly stretches.....but he also has a hyper-quick bat that will punish mistakes and he has the ability to get red hot. He's played in 19 games as an M, he has 9 extra-base hits. Oooooooh, sweeeeeeeet.
He may well need a platoon partner, maybe. But all the same, he's a cool piece. He's Pegs, with a makeover.
moe
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=== Photo ===
Why the pic from the night before? Who knows. Write your own segue. "Supreme Court In Session Nightly"? "Less Fanfare, Same 1 Run"? "Golden Days In Safeco"? I just like yellow. Cindy spent a grand on that camera.
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=== John Jaso ===
Took his sniper position, in the batter's box, four times. Dropped the pitcher three times. The unintentional walk happened to be one of those that a lesser hitter would not have achieved.
.................................
McAllister was throwing well, and on pitches 1 and 3 the catcher Santana had put down index and pinky fingers, calling for the "Tantalizer." Well, three not so much, because the count was 2-0. But anyone who offers at the tasty high first-pitch fastball either (1) skies the ball for an out or (2) fouls it off, setting up a different at-bat.
McAllister back to 3-2, pitch #6 was a tough one to fight off. Jaso did, and dangerously. McAllister didn't want to give in, aimed another one at the black, and it was maybe two inches outside an MLB ump's (wide outside) strike zone on RHP's vs LHB's. The transit time was 0.40 seconds or so; Jaso held up effortlessly.
Not saying it's the Rocky-Clubber Lang fight. But it goes toward the court argument of a .400 OBP, your honor.
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=== Eric Thames ===
Looking at Thames one more time, we notice that Ron Shandler had scored his "power index" at 133 and 141 in '010 and '011. This is exactly the same PX as Carlos Peguero's: 141. Same as Robinson Cano, 137. Higher than Shin-Soo Choo's; not too far below Teixeira, Tulowitzki and Braun in the 150's.
When G-Money sees something differently than I do, my instinctive reaction is "what light bulb am I missing here?," so I've been looking for some way to feasibly reassess Thames. Just to see if there is an alternative projection here.
Suddenly it hit me: if Thames were the size of Carlos Peguero, if he physically looked like that, we'd all have different expectations. We'd take contact issues as part of the territory. He doesn't look like that; he looks like a little linebacker, so you think "Al Oliver." But what if he's a 250-lb. hitter trapped in a light-heavyweight boxer's physique?
If Carlos Peguero were doing precisely what Eric Thames were doing -- .280 / .330 / .530 with an 0.20 EYE and an extra-base hit every other game, we'd be on high alert. ... for a contact hitter, Thames is kind of funky. But for a 140 PX hitter, if that's what Thames actually is, things are going nicely.
Hm.
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=== With the Leather ===
Biz associate asked me when I went in to class ... "Did you SEE that play by Ackley!" Which one. There was some confusion. He spent about 30 seconds talking about today's dive behind second base when I thought he was talking about yesterday's dive behind second base.
My wife - heh - tells me, wow, the M's are just playing great. She usually says it after this or that Web Gem. Now that they've got Trayvon out there catching ten balls a game in left field, that's a fun 1.1 acres to watch in front of the fence.
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Comments
Hey, I might have been right about something! Woo! *laughs*
I said when Thames first came over he had some Sheffield in his swing, and some Mondesi. He doesn't have Sheffield in his batting eye, sadly, but Mondesi would have 30-walk years. What's a LH Mondesi worth?
Heck, what’s that kind of line worth, period? If Adam Jones couldn't play CF, he wouldn't have signed a bajillion dollar extension, but he'd still be worth something even on a corner. Thames is not built like a hulk, but with that batspeed and volume up at 11 he doesn't have to be big to be Shin-Soo Choo minus half his walks.
Thames does not have the most comfortable skillset. When he's struggling to make contact it's gonna get Saunders-batting-.150 level of ugly because he won't be walking his way on base. Unlike Saunders, though, I don't think Thames is a .240-.260 hitter, he's more of a .270-.290 hitter. Which sounds weird, since he swings through a lot of stuff...but watching him get angry about being pounded inside in his last at-bat of the night, lean back away from the zone, bring his hands in and lace a bullet down the line for a double, it doesn't seem like he has large holes in his swing, just that he needs a bigger database to work from.
He went to West Valley Junior College, then transferred to that major powerhouse Pepperdine. He's had half as many pro at-bats as Michael Saunders, even though they're the same age, and his college instruction was far from advanced.
If it's my team, then Thames keeps getting time to play, and to figure things out. He makes FAR better contact than Wells (minor league line of .310/.390/.535 to Casper's .250/.345/.495) for more average and power than Saunders (.275/.370/.440). Wells + 50 points of batting average is worth something to me. Thames isn’t as versatile, because Wells can play some CF, and Saunders SHOULD play center, so I’m hoping we don’t throw Eric overboard for a little glove flexibility.
Even if it winds up being in a platoon of some sort (and I don't think it has to) Eric’s bat could get really interesting.
~G
I agree G, he doesn't have to be a platoon guy, which is why I added the "maybe." Let's see what happens to his vL splits as he sees lefties more. He's only had just over 130 MLB PA's vL. Last year he was a .209-.242-.395 vL guy/This year it's .256-.310-.359, although it's wind-aided as he has a .370 BABIP in his 39 AB's.
All the same, he isn't chopped liver against southpaws. He can hit them a bit, if not better.
And he can punish RHP to a pretty good degree.
I'm on the record of liking Wells because of his versatility: No platoon split, very very nice COF glove AND he can play a very passable CF. Thames is kind of the opposite in many regards. Were he a RHB, I would be less interested. But because he has the proper split, and a decent COF glove, he's very interesting.
I still like Doc's idea that he is Peguero best case development. I'm rolling Thames out everyday right now, even against lefties. Let's see what develops. Would prefer to see a more Wells, even if it's against just lefties (where Trayvon is ghastly), if we're "all in" on the Trayvon evaluation. But I'm giving Thames his daily hacks.
BTW, one great game (2B and HR) from Smoak since he returned, but basically more of the same: .194-.266-.384 since Carp's injury. Eeeeeesh!
I can't see more Carp fast enough.
moe
And so do I. BaseballHQ remarked that his "expected AVG" has run higher than his actual AVG, with upside in that very .270-.290 range. Like you say, he gets to pitches you will NEVA EVA see a Peguero type get to.
We've raved about Thames' ability to take a good look at a pitch and launch only after he's read the spin. This SHOULD all add up to good HIT ability. You wonder about hitters whose AVG runs better than their K's would predict ... Thames seems to get high line drives and excellent speed on his batted balls.
The funny thing is, he could be two or three years away from jelling. Tough call whether you want to really commit to the guy. But one thing is for sure: he's got some smoke in his bat. Don't think anybody's ever doubted that.
You wind up poaching some W's. Teams that win 95 don't dominate all 95 wins; they steal some of them despite being outhit 9 to 5...
Maybe Thames and/or the hot Saunders will personally be able to poach us a win in Chicago. Not liking the SP matchups but maybe we could steal one and earn one...