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Pineda wasn't dealt until *after* the standout rookie season. The M's (and Safeco) have mostly had little trouble getting AAA pitchers over the hump to be successful Major Leaguers. This is a tremendous burden for other teams, often taking multiple seasons and hundreds of mediocre innings. I'm not sure we can get Montero if we're trying to deal Pineda without the Major League track record. *IF* we deal any of the Big 3, it should be after Major League success so we can get maximum return. - Justin
Every time there's a Justin sighting, I get to parlay a high-traffic article out of it. We're definitely going to need more posts on AAA and NPB hotshots to draw him out.
We mentioned in the original post, that Pineda was traded a year later -- and also mentioned the fact that NYY offered us Ivan Nova in addition to ['anybody in baseball,' that being the minors' best hitter, a catcher, who'd already splashed in the majors], for Pineda.
But I hadn't thought of it this way until Justin said it: give Paxton the easy Safeco year, as a LHP no less, and his value is WAY up in the minds of suitors. (SSI is the only place that thinks pretty close to the same of James Paxton before and after his rookie year.) Send an exciting, 9-10, 3.74 starter with 9K per game through the Safeco transmogrifier and you can THEN trade them for --- > anybody in the majors. Apparently with booty coming back.
In case anybody needs a little perspective on what Paxtons, Hultzens, and Taijuans are worth, here is a May 2012 comment from our fave Red Sox exec:
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Who is the top pitching prospect in AAA today?
Asked by: foobrien
Answered: 5/30/2012
No idea. That's a fantasy baseball question, as opposed to a real life baseball question. In fantasy baseball you need to know stuff like that because you want to "claim" those guys as soon as they set foot in The Show. In real life it doesn't make any difference because
a) whoever he is, you can't trade for him,
b) whoever he is, he'll be in the majors in two weeks, and
c) once he gets to the majors he will be no different than any of the other 40 young pitchers with great arms who are trying to establish themselves, each of whom spent three weeks as a hotshot prospect in AAA.
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"Sexy" ML-ready pitching prospects -- whether they are Tim Linececum or just another schlub; see James' line c) -- are more valuable than gold bullion in the circles in which real GM's run. M's fans are fretting about any perceived chinks in the armor for Paxton and Hultzen. That will not be the case with GM's. To GM's, you can't trade for pitchers like James Paxton, to the extent that they don't even worry about it.
The account of the Cashman-Zduriencik talks had this flavor. "Who in our org would you need if we were going to talk about Montero, other than Felix?" ... "Well, there's really only one guy, Jack" .... salesman pause while Z braces himself ... if you're going to bring up Montero, that gives me the license to name your best young pitcher.
Without a doubt, a year's worth of 9-10, 3.74, 8.9K major league performance for Paxton and you could cash him in for Stanton, Lawrie, Myers or somebody like that, and possibly also receive an Ivan Nova type into the bargain. My question is whether you could pretty much do it now, without the Nova part of it? And I don't know the answer to that.
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One thing is: Erasmo Ramirez has pitched in the majors, and GM's will be well aware of information like this. Fans aren't electrified by him at this point. GM's, far more savvy to stardom that hasn't yet registered in full-season stats leaderboards, definitely will be. I wouldn't be surprised at ANY trade that was going to involve Erasmo Ramirez.
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