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Q. What could be bad about a nice guy who does everything well?
A. I guess I'm confused about the proposals for 5-7 year Swisher deals at big money.
On the hardcore saber sites, I'm used to seeing calculations that take a Nick Swisher's 4.0 WAR, that set it at 3.5 for next year, and amputate 0.5 WAR per year until it hits zero. Calculations like these always seem to wind up proving that Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, and Prince Fielder are going to be bozos in three or four years. You think they won't do that with Josh Hamilton? :- )
Now here we are with Nick Swisher, who actually is the type of player who is done at age 34 (in this case, 2-3 years from now, max), and all of a sudden age is a nonissue.
I'm confused. What happened to the age-arc paradigm that rules almost every free agent signing to be insane?
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Q. Would Swisher actually age quickly?
A. Here is a Derek Zumsteg article that follows on Bill James' original research. He used the paradigm to explain Richie Sexson's crash, after Sexson's two falloff years in 2006 and 2007.
Zumsteg explains it well, and James (and Dr. D) take the principle as axiomatic. Fast-twitch hyperathletes, those who have SPD and contact ability, project to play better at 35 than "intelligent" players who have Three True Outcomes skills. Ichiro, Rickey, and Lofton are at one end of this spectrum; Jack Cust and Nick Swisher are at the other end of it.
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Q. Does Swisher look like he's aging?
A. He's got a glorious swing, but it's slowing already. Watch him drag the bat through the zone on this double. Now, that's an extreme example; Swisher can be quicker than that at times.
But we're talking about his age-31 season with that swing-through-water. Where's he going to be at 34?
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That's his bat launch. Home Run Tracker gives an idea of his throughspeed. His average home run this year was only 388 feet, and he hit 24 of them in Yankee. It's not like he's Josh Hamilton up there.
We're not saying that Nick Swisher is something brown and unpleasant that you step in on the sidewalk. He's a classy player. But 7 years starting at age 32? I'd seriously be nervous about four years.
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His cold zone, as a left hand hitter, is inside (except at the knees). That's the area of the strike zone that emphasizes quickness. Swisher doesn't have a lot of quickness at the plate; right now he's got average quickness. Not "average" quickness compared to other $100M players; average quickness relative to Brendan Ryan and Eric Thames.
Swisher can hit, don't get me wrong. He sees pitches extremely well. And his swing is ready to inflict damage on pitches he can handle. The question, as with all players, is what happens when a hole shows up at age X, and he gets "booked" on that hole.
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Q. How are the sabermetric comps?
A. We're piling on at this point, but here are the b-ref.com comps - read them and weep. From age 32 to the end of their careers, Swisher's comps were out of baseball in four years. Not "average players" -- out of baseball. That's pretty weird for ten players of that quality. Not often you see a b-ref.com comps list with a 4 in that years remaining column.
I would take Jason Bay as Swisher's #1 similar pairing, as b-ref.com also does. Here is Bay's b-ref.com card: compare the Per 162 Games totals for HR, BB, K, and everything else, to Swisher. Walks the same. Homers the same. Bay came up at age 24-25, like Swisher did, the same. Everything the same.
Bay, a classy hitter with an outstanding EYE, eighty walks per year, signed a big contract at age 31 and immediately pulled a Richie Sexson. Age 31 was his crash year.
Dr. D wouldn't imagine that Swisher crashed next year, but if he did, it would be nothing that Jason Bay and a ton of age 32-33 hitters of 120 OPS+ quality hadn't done.
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