As he's the teenage lefty who demolished the AZL this year. And Jason and I agree on his potential, which is unusual - we tend to look for different things in prospects. If I like Romero or Catricala or Franklin at lower levels, he's pretty much guaranteed to hate them. When we agree on low-level guys, either the guy must really be a consensus can't-miss or somebody's wires are crossed...
Pike has everything except velocity at this point, and as a teen with a good motion I expect his velo to climb. It's not a huge deal as a lefty anyway. He'd be a good choice if we're not throwing Capps in there.
If you wanted a hitter, Ji-Man Choi is still unstoppable when he's on the field (whether at 1B or DH). The catching experiment ended after he broke his back and lost a year and a half...but the kid can hit. Even with no experience, coming from a foreign country where baseball isn't exactly a national religion, and missing so much time due to injury, the kid can hit. He's the 1B version of Chris Snelling - or if you prefer, Shin-soo Choo, his countryman. Choo 2.0 can make my org Top-10, though the health thing is a concern.
Julio Morban is a 20 year old who did very well in the Cal League, though again has had a fragility problem - but as a potential CF with a great swing he's very interesting. We have a couple of teen hitters (Lopes and DeCarlo) who performed well in the early going at (very) low levels. DeCarlo especially is very raw, but if he was a raw million dollar foreign bonus baby at 18 he'd get consideration, so I'm not holding that against him.
Just as I'm not holding it - or his age - against Kivlehan. You don't take 4 years off from baseball, pick up a stick again on a whim, win the Big East Triple Crown and POY awards, then step into pro ball and win the Northwest League POY award, and HR and slugging titles without being some kind of baseball savant. And he did all that while re-tooling his swing, adjusting to wood bats after just getting used to college BBCOR ones, fixing his footwork at third as well as his throwing motion... He had an incredible year back in baseball. He's got that Brian Jordan in him and I can't bet against the guy.
I don't think you can go wrong with the upside of most of the raw hitters, or a couple of pitchers either. The exceedingly scary thing about the Ms minor leagues is that the difference between 1 and 6 in our system isn't large - and and neither is the difference between 7 and 14. Come the middle of next year Lopes might be a top 50 prospect, or Kivlehan might be, or Pike...
Or someone completely different. The next wave doesn't look quite as good as the wave currently cresting toward the bigs in Zunino, Franklin, Paxton, Hultzen etc... but there's still talent in the up-and-comers, and there's another draft in a few months...
~G
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Spec is keeping us clued in, as is his wont, to the kids' celebrity tours in Arizona. Here's a stats table. Mike Zunino is slugging .630 in a week's worth of games. Nick Franklin is 8-for-16 with an .813 SLG. Stefen Romero is 4-for-9. James Paxton, who's always been my fave of the Big Three, probably has the best stats of any pitcher down there.
I read a statement somewhere that AFL stats mean exactly the same as batting practice stats. This goes to the same issue that we take on in the next article: if I don't think much of a given piece of evidence, do I get to declare that it is not evidence? Spoiler alert: the definition of "evidence" is a teeny weeny bit different from what some guys seem to think that it is.
The AFL is most certainly not batting practice. You'd be fine taking an AB against a pitching coach throwing 75 MPH BP pitches. You wouldn't be as fine, taking an AB against Tyler Chatwood in Arizona.
Admittedly, you aren't going to make a lot of soup off of the AFL stats oyster; we all know that. But if you'd bother to take a look at the stats leaders from previous seasons in the AFL, you'll find that they're packed with players who were shortly about to do very, very well. In 2005, the total base leaders included Dan Uggla, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, and Stephen Drew; Kemp's performance was a real harbinger of a sudden leap in his prospect status. In 2006, TB leaders included Ryan Braun, Ben Zobrist and Mark Reynolds. etc. etc.
We're not saying that you revamp all your prospect lists based on 100 AB's in the AFL. But Jack Zduriencik doesn't fly down there because the games are meaningless. It means one thing if Mike Zunino slugs .600, and another thing if you see him go 2-for-43 with 20 strikeouts.
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John Sickels takes the top 30 WAR players this year and revisits the way he graded them as minor leaguers. Last year, he did the same thing.
There are a decent number of Jose Bautistas, Robinson Canos and Shane Victorinos in there. But overall, the lists of top WAR players of 2011-12 were packed with more "pedigreed" minor leaguers than I'd have guessed.
Sickels' WAR-in-review articles --- > cause Dr. D to bump up the value of a John Sickels A/B+ grade. Dr. D isn't saying that he now lives and dies with these grades. But it's worth considering that Jose Bautista is perhaps more unusual than we'd believed. Perhaps SSI needs to spend a bit less time arguing that A/B+ grades aren't absolute, and a bit more time listening to see who's getting those grades.
Nine M's make Sickels' most recent [top 120 in baseball -- more-or-less].
- James Paxton, LHP
- Danny Hultzen, LHP
- Taijuan Walker, RHP
- Victor Sanchez, RHP
- Brandon Maurer, RHP* (!!)
- Mike Zunino, C
- Nick Franklin, SS/2B
- Brad Miller, SS
- Stefen Romero, 3B/2B*
Sickels may wind up giving six Mariners the coveted grades of B+ or better, positioning them for (?) enhanced shots at WAR leaderboards in a few years. You know about the Big Three; Sickels has Zunino, Franklin and Miller at #8, #16 and #25 in baseball, respectively. Among hitters. That's basically six Mariners in the top fifty.
Maybe Gordon, or Spectator, can pick one additional minor leaguer and then we'll get to slobber over an Org Top Ten that is composed entirely of BBA Top 100 type players. ;- )
Who rounds out the top 10? If Carter Capps is still eligible as a prospect, he's my first thought. If they'd consider him for the rotation, you might toy with the idea of putting him first on the org list. Maybe Spec will argue for Jack Marder, a 2B/C who had a 1000 OPS at High Desert. Are you guys still in love with Andrew Carraway? Jason Churchill likes Tyler Hicks, a teenage lefty with tons of K's. Come the All-Star Break next year, people may be wishing they'd given Alex Liddi more love; he's got quite a shot to pull a Kyle Seager in the new stadium.
Comments
Gordon, that is a fantastic recap.
Because of this track record of drafting though, I think it is critical that the M's do NOT sign some high dollar free agent and lose their first round pick.
While McNamara and crew have not been perfect, they have been a whole lot more accurate than most teams, and thus that first round pick has a very good chance of helping us in the near future.
PLUS, since I am sure that the M's will do what they have done in the past, save money for later rounds - like how they saved over $2 million last year on signing Zunino way under the assigned cap dollars. Thus, with this saved money, they can pick some of the diamonds in the rough like Pike, Lopes, DeCarlo and several others in prior years. If the M's lose the first round pick, that not only lose that pick, they lose the extra money to spend in the later rounds.
To tie this to other threads then, Jack really needs to have a good off season where he can find ways to package a couple of more of our prospects to get the stars for 2013 M's, because the waves of new talent are coming... and it does us no good to have 5+ MLB ready 2B guys and 10+ MLB ready pitchers all in the minors when the big club can't hit the ball out of the infield.
Come on Jack!!! Work that Sodo Mojo!
I actually think that Jack et al's ability to get great value out of later rounds might be a reason that we wouldn't miss giving up an early pick to sign a big FA.
Sickels may be patting himself on the back too much. I mean, how many people would not have thought Trout or Posey or Wright or Cabrera or Zobrist or (you get the idea) weren't great projects. Great projects often become very good MLBers.
What would be more telling is a look at what guys he rated a B's or A's who aren't special (Top 30 WAR) players. Or at least to include them, too.
Man, even Piazza (62nd round pick) was rated #38 by BA before he came up. He would at least be a B/B+ project.
Out of the top 30 players in the game, one would certainly predict that they were VG minor leaguers.
You get the idea.
BTW, Catricala is 1 'fer 17 in Peoria. Drats.
The other guys are bashing, however.
Romero is riding a rocket to Seattle.
Moe
I think Tyler Hicks was the bad guy in the last Dirty Harry movie :- )
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Ya, that IS interesting, if both you and Churchill agree here. I think he had, um, Hicks (new nickname!?) in like his top 5 for the year.
Was hoping you'd throw a couple of non-cliche'd names out there... if you don't do POTD's on Choi and Kivlehan, that puts them in my basket... Julio Morban has been rated "9E" by HQ. That's not a military classification; for those who don't follow HQ it's a "10% chance of becoming an ML All-Star" type grade.
Lopes? Hm: teenage 2B/SS with a great EYE. Possible Pedroia style prospect or ?
Although I've come to really enjoy reading his evaluations. Would be interested to know what G, J, Justynius, 13, Spec or others think of Sickels.
The fact that most current 5+ WAR players had B+ or A grades, that doesn't prove a lot; obviously he might have had 9,000 A grades who are not on the lists. All I was saying was that I thought there would be a few more non-heralded prospects in there.
Then again, I didn't really count the guys he gave low grades to early, and who wound up with higher grades only as they neared the bigs.... didn't seem like there were a ton, but...
He's good with picks outside the first round, but ... is he also way above the norm as it pertains to high picks?
Of the three pitchers and three hitters in Sickels' top 50,* five were originally first-round draft picks, though we got Paxton under special circumstances ... hm. Perhaps that's all Jack would need to do with a lost comp pick: grab somebody who has been sitting a year. Or somebody who is 5'10" and too short to play quarterback.
...this winter. Gotta have something to talk about while waiting for Jack to trade one of em away for our new shiny LF/1B/whatever. :-)
Choi and Kivlehan get a huge thumb on the scale from me, because as you know from Balentien and Franklin and the like, I like raw players who show well. There are some players who are so well coached in warm-weather states, with their travel clubs, that they're already maxing out their talent levels. When a kid like Franklin is dinged for being a slap-hitter with a power swing like that, then lifts weights one summer and blows up on the power scale, I take note. I love baseball rats and diamonds in the rough both.
Lopes isn't all that rough - his warm-weather-state baseball skills are pretty polished. But his eye is good, his field skills are very good at 2nd, his base-speed is outrageous, and he was 17 when we drafted him (turned 18 in the AZL). His swing isn't a power swing: he's not Pedroia/Nomar. He's more a Starlin Castro type (with a better eye). If he blows up all over the MWL next year, then he gets exceedingly interesting. If not, he's got Joey-Cora mid level potential.
I definitely want to see him in full-season next year though. We'll see if the Ms push him that way. DeCarlo will be in Everett - he's not nearly as advanced. But Kivlehan-to-Lopes-to-Ard could be an interesting around the horn in Clinton.
~G
Of the guys Sickles listed, only one, Stanton, went from a C grade to an A grade (C/B+/A).
Cano, Molina, Jackson, Montero, Rollins all moved from various C grades to a B grade.
Guys went from B to A, or stayed at C,...but moving up two grades only occured with one guy.
For those who aren't aware, here's Jack's history with 1st round picks:
1999 - Ben Sheets
2000 - FAIL (bought out Corey Hart in the 11th)
2001- FAIL (took JJ Hardy in the 2nd)
2002 - Prince Fielder
2003 - Rickie Weeks
2004 - Mark Rogers (weak...but took Gallardo in the 2nd)
2005 - Ryan Braun
2006 - FAIL
2007 - Laporta (fail, but took Lucroy in the 2nd)
2008 - Brett Lawrie
2009 - Ackley, Franklin
2010 - NONE (took Taijuan Walker in the 1st supp)
2011 - Hultzen
2012 - Zunino
So that's several All-Stars, a couple MVPs, a future All-Star in Lawrie, a 3 WAR second baseman who can't hit yet in Ackley, and 4 of the top 50 prospects in all the land.
His record in the first two rounds is ridiculous. You don't take the gun outta that guy's hands when it comes to shooting fish in the draft barrel.
Unless it's for a guy like Hamilton. Ya don't do it for Nick Swisher. Another reason I also expect a trade that would allow us to reload through the draft while moving some of our positional duplicates for a position of need (hitter or #2 starter).
~G
... who were originally assessed as non-factors based on physical tools. Then their performances moved them up the ladder.
So, yeah. That pulls me back a bit more toward my original understanding of the situation.
I wonder why this principle doesn't get talked about more.
It's a light bulb that applies in all realms of life. A freshman class hits a university environment and some of them are very well prepared, scoring high grades as frosh, but that doesn't mean they'll have the raw brainpower to handle the tough stuff. Only after correcting for the high school background might you be able to forecast their outcomes three years on.
We should routinely include this factor in our discussions of low-level minors players; not sure why we don't.
BTW Gordon how does this apply to international signings? As a very broad rule, how does a Dominican teenager's background compare to that of a teenager from (say) Oregon?
Don't take the gun outta the guy's hands for shooting fish in the draft barrel...
... what's the M's draft position next summer? To be fair, most of Jay-Z's fish were floating around in the first 5 overall picks, right? Franklin and Taijuan were tremendous picks, but it's the Zuninos, Brauns and Hultzen type picks with which he's been death on a stick. Or no?
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I don't fantasize about becoming a baseball exec -- as others here don't -- and my interest in GM'y transaction rules is exactly zilch. Signing Nick Swisher would cost the Mariners their #1 pick next June?! YOWCH
I put Pike right with Maurer after the Big 3.
Among hitters, I have to admit that it was Gaby, Nephew of Vlad who made me sit up and take notice (that would be Gabriel Guerrero).
So he played in only 18 games in the U.S. He had base hits in 17 of them.
And on Aug. 24, some new light bulb went off, and in his final five games he had 8 hits, 4 HR and only 2 K. All this after putting up a .989 OPS in the Dominican.
A guy who might slug .500 with a K% under 15%? They don't come around often, and they tend to make frequent appearances at All-Star Games.
He's not Top 100 yet, but another year building on this one and he will be.
Most foreign players, especially from Latin countries, barely play organized ball. Their showcases as 15-16 year olds are taking BP, sprinting as hard as they can from home plate to the OF wall, and throwing as hard as they can to home plate. It's like old-time horse trading. "Trot around the yard, young man, and let me look at your hooves." They also play essentially barnstorming events, but it's not the same.
We obviously play more organized ball in the states, so kids from cold-weather states see breaking balls. Oregon actually has a pretty year-round baseball presence. It's more the Ohio/Maine/Pennsylvania type players that have trouble - that snow's a killer and they can't hop a border for a Cali team like the OR kids can. They don't tend to hook on with travel teams and can only play a few months of the year. It's all local coaching garnered in a few warmer months. NY/PA vs FL or CA kids is a big difference. If you see a Pennsylvania kid who's holding his own at 17 with CA kids (or exceeding them) then take the PA kid.
Which we did with DeCarlo.
Did I mention that Kivlehan went to the state university of NJ (ie, Rutgers) and grew up in NY? He was a raw(er) ballplayer type coming out of HS even without taking the 4 year break. When his pitch recognition catches up to his phenomenal strength and very good batspeed, look out. We'll see if his increasing skill can make up for a .400+ BABIP that's sure to come down a bit, but like I said, this guy isn't betting against him.
~G
Assuming the Yankees make him a "qualifying offer" of $13.3 million for 2013, he'll cost the M's that #12 pick.
... in a Freudian kind of way. John Hicks was the catcher we drafted out of Virginia who was Danny Hultzen's battery mate. He had a sneaky good season at HD with less of a home/road split than folks think. If Zunino wasn't in the picture I think we all might be looking at Hicks with a bit more interest right now. I place him right behind Zunino in the system depth chart at catcher.
That Jack Marder is absolutely not a catcher any more due to fragility? Or do you see Marder as getting nothing more than emergency training back there, or of course just see Hicks as being better?