Per my imperfect memory: 1) Gutierrez was healthy & uninjured in 2009 and for the first half of 2010, 2) The IBS started in mid-2010, causing weight loss & loss of strength for the second half of 2010 & all of 2011. I don't recall any significant injuries for this 1.5 year period, 3) Cured of the IBS, in 2012 Gutierrez regained the lost weight & strength but tore a muscle in the upper body, experienced plantar fasciatis, and was beaned by a pick-off throw -- all these combining to make him miss 120 games. He played successfully in 20-30 2012 fall league games. We can now safely assume that the IBS is under control. A slightly riskier assumption is that the plantar fasciatis is under control, but let's assume that for now. We can safely dismiss the beaning as a 1-time event. So, if my memory serves, Gutierrez, in the last 4 years, has had one serious injury (the 2012 muscle tear) that may indicate vulnerability in 2013. But he has had no leg, shoulder, or elbow injuries in the last 4 years. Based on that re-ordering of his afflictions, it appears to me that Gutierrez has a better-than-commonly-perceived probability of getting through the 2013 season intact. As the M's are short quality MLB outfielders, a full 2013 season from him would be a major boost, and set the M's up to pick up his option in 2014. My $.02.
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HOT SEAT: Does it mean anything that the M's have won six in a row?
DR. D, WORD-ASSOCIATION SPEED: It doesn't mean anything in this sense. 6-and-0 means nothing different than what 5-1 or 4-2 would mean. Many of the "wins" are decided by minor leaguers in the late innings.
But 6-0 means something different from 0-6, when you're winning the 5-inning games too. Our starters are kicking their starters, into the bargain. Today, Smoak and Franklin homered off Franklin homered and Smoak long-doubled off Matt Cain. Cain's not out there enjoying the sight of his own detonation. I don't notice that Robert Andino is homering off Matt Cain.
Earl's Fourth Law: Nobody cares in June, whether you won a game in March. These games will be well-and-truly forgotten. But everything you wanted to happen in spring, is happening.
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HOT SEAT: Eric Wedge is asked about a resurgent 2013 offense. Wedge immediately brings up .... Franklin Gutierrez. (?!)
Dr D: We remember 2011, when Gutierrez would load up, cover a ball, and just launch it as hard as he could ... in order to see the ball caught five steps in front of the warning track.
I'm no Gutierrez fan, not the way everybody else is. But! It's clear now that Guiterrez' disease was a larger percentage of the problem than I realized it was. I thought his disease was 50% of his problem, and the "fact" that he couldn't hit the other 50%. Nowadays I'd call it 80-20, and that means a re-think.
If Gutierrez were genuinely to get over his disease, he'd be a starting CF for anybody. A healthy Gutierrez might reprise 2009, and indeed hit .280 with 20 homers and 20 stolen bases -- while contributing +15, maybe +20 runs in center. That's a borderline All-Star. Maybe not 7 WAR on the grass, but it would be in the stats.
As defensive-specialists-up-the-middle go, Gutierrez is liable to add more to a ballclub than would Michael Bourn. If Guti's strong and swinging good, he's in there.
If Gutierrez hits six homers this spring, he's Roto-ly UP. With a bullet. I got your "spring training stats mean squat" right here, pokey. Gutierrez' SLG this spring means a whale of a lot.
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HOT SEAT: Nick Franklin goes yard Thursday off the aforementioned Matt Cain.
DR D: We remember 2001, and the M's would win their 14th or 15th straight, and you would hear the most gorgeous words any sports fan can hear. "It seems like it's somebody different every night."
It's like there's good news on every front. 9-to-make-5 baby. One or the other of these guys is liable to have a good 2013.
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HOT SEAT: Justin Smoak with a double (a near-homer) off Matt Cain and then he turned around to ground one over second base for a single. Geoff Baker is saying, pay attention here.
DR D: Intelligent Seattle web denizens should weigh up the fact that Geoff Baker is as valid a "tools scout" for them as anybody else they've got access to, except for me, of course. BOO-YEAH!
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I like Jason Churchill's reports on players; I don't value Baker's judgment any less than Churchill's. If you are not grok'king Baker's onsite reports, you do not have full information.
Smoak said the one thing that Dr D wanted to hear: that the game has slowed down for him. Just so.
Yesterday we got our first look at his 2013 swing. POTD upcoming.
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Ain't baseball fun?,
Jeff
Comments
I think Gutierrez homered today, not Smoak. Overall, I think the M's had 4 extra-base hits off Cain in 3 innings - 3 doubles & 1 h.r.
Go here. Isn't that a pretty swing? Smoak's not getting em out of the ballpark any faster and he's got the leverage and weight advantage. And yes, it's desert air, but the ball does tend to jump off the kid's bat from the Left-hand side. I don't think it was a coincidence that he was playing 2B while Miller played SS, but I hope we give him a shot at short. Unless we plan to trade Ackley, anyway.
I still have my fingers crossed for an early-season platoon if Ryan and Franklin. Defense when we need it, offense when we gotta have it. Cuz the kid can flat crush a ball when he wants to.
~G
Game 1: SS for Andino, 2B to Romero
Game 2: 2B, SS to Miller
Game 3: SS, 2B to Andino/Miller
Game 4: SS for Andino, 2B to Truinfel
Game 5: 2B for Ackley, SS to Ryan/Miller
Game 6: 2B, SS to Miller
Overall, 3/6 games have been at SS, the other 3 at 2B. For Miller, 2/5 games have been at SS, he's played 2B to Franklin/Romero, Franklin, Ryan/Truinfel, and SS to Ackley/Franklin and Franklin. So actually so far, Miller's seen less game time at SS than Franklin has. It's just the way the Mariners work, unless you're Brenden Ryan, you're playing half your games at 2B because you never know. That goes for Andino, Miller, Franklin, or Truinfel. Also because they have five SS in camp, vs two 2Bs, and they need to see their bats.
As one of 2 backup IF makes a lot of sense when you consider Andino is a capable backup everywhere but 1st and Catcher. If Franklin starts getting work at 3b I'll start getting excited with that possibility. I don't think a platoon is very likely by itself but I'd be happy with that too. With Miller on his heels why not build Franklins positional repertoire? A util that can hit from both sides would be capable of getting 600 AB spread over 5 positions and he even has a little speed for days that he's on the bench and a Montero or Morales type are on base in a close game. A gym rat like him seems like a good player type to try and mold into that.
..., but, I guess Nick Franklin did the whole weight gain thing without the knowledge of the Mariners, and they were not very happy when they learned about his 6500 calorie diet. Word is out that he has dropped the weighty regimen.
.. when the TV game arrives.
Good 'put amigo. :daps:
Can you imagine Sammy Snead getting up on a dog-leg left hole and deciding to swing lefty, just to hit a fade? Heck no, Sammy had the one of the most buttery swings in the history of the game.
It would make no sense.
Franklin and switch-hitting from the right side fit this very same scenario.
Has he faced a lefty this spring?
Franklin as McLemore, with 25 starts at each of 2B-3B-SS-LF makes a whole lot of sense, until he gets his full-time slot.
I forgot about his splits when posting that. Tacoma to practice hitting LHP as a LHB seems better with that consideration. Still could eventually fit that role, but with adjusting to hitting same handed pitchers maybe he shouldn't pick up another position at the same time. No word on that change happening anyway, but why not?
Nobody else other than Andino that can backup shortstop has done much this spring. Not that its necessary, just worth looking at.
B-ref has his 50/50 K/B ratio against a quality of opponent metric of 7.4 this spring. Could be noise but worth a scout's take on if anything has changed in his swing or approach. Anyone down in AZ able to grab Chris Gwynn's ear and ask about Carlos?
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Kinsler against Paxton to open the game. Perfect STEE-RIKE ONE. Next pitch, even better location ... whup! Okay, 1-1, beautifully thrown ... WHUP! ....
This by the way IS one of the differences between (say) Joe Saunders and a rookie pitcher: Saunders will come back from a situation like this.
Rookies not only get rattled, but also don't know specifically what to do next.
Big difference between Felix and a rookie pitcher: this Will Not Happen to Felix.
10-pitch AB, and the worst pitch missed by the width of the catcher's mitt. One of the balls, actually, was the ball that Elvis Andrus hit for a double.
Five FB's ... 94, 96, 95, 95, 94.
............
Boy, if you click through the GameDay .... link here ... there are GOBS of green balls within the strike zone. Couple of 'em in each of Maurer's other AB's in the inning.
...Maurer got out of his jams. He is clearly a better major league pitcher than Paxton right now...because he kept to his gameplan and adjusted to the craptacular umpiring.