...but not harder than Erasmo does now. Still, if he honed his craft to an Erasmo-like level I'd have no problem with that.
Sanchez is a hard guy to project, because as you say he doesn't have a long frame to get better leverage out of. He might get some Bartolo Colon velocity out of a stocky frame, but there just aren't a lot of stocky throwers to determine possible paths. I've always thought that short pitchers should pitch up in the zone more, while taller pitchers can work down in it to get extra leverage - but working high in the zone has its own drawbacks. And again, not a huge sample size to pick from.
His attitude and his feel for pitching are great. If he was 6'4 then I'd be wondering about a Carlos Zambrano kind of body type and increase in velocity, since he already throws 90-94 as a teen. He's not 6'4. I'm not sure he's six feet even, though that's what he's listed at.
I don't know where he goes from here - but I DO know I want to find out. He's already showing he likes some of the finer points about pitching and not just hurling the ball over the plate. He and Pike both have very advanced instincts for such young kids, and their stuff isn't as raw as you'd think either.
I expect Sanchez and Pike to both be in full-season ball to start the year in Clinton. That team will be fun if guys like Kivlehan and Lopes are also hanging out in Iowa. We should get a nice long look at our recent additions and the next guys trying to climb into our top prospects list.
~G
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Spec, Lonnie, and Gordon are sky-high on Victor Sanchez. Dr. D isn't yet; he hopes they're right. Don't confuse that last sentence with "Dr. D is skeptical on Sanchez."
Talking points. Sanchez:
- Has a motion that is very solid and correct, but not special
- Is wayyyy ahead of his age for makeup
- Does not have "projectable" velocity gain
- Has a body type that is a very significant negative
- Has an Erasmo Ramirez arsenal and template
- Is wayyyy ahead of his age for command and change speed
My big concern with this guy is ... Willie Bloomquist. Nick Collison. Rick Mirer. All the guys who, at age 20, were incredible for their age, but who could not advance from there.
I am not saying that Victor Sanchez will NOT improve! I'm saying I'd be "worried" (sic) that maybe he's one of those guys who can't.
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=== Mechanics ===
Here's a good vid. For age 18 he is .... well, for his age he's awesome. For major league baseball he's about average. He's got baseball hypnotized with admiration.
- His organization down the centerline is good. Not great, good.
- His rate of acceleration is good. Not great. Not average. It's good.
- His deceleration is good. Not great. Not mediocre. It's a mild positive.
- His repeatability is better than good. His repeatability is major league from the word Go.
- His leverage is good, maybe better than good.
He gets his front shoulder and hip into a beautiful place. But! He doesn't connect his shoulders to the CF. Not only does he NOT drop-and-drive, but he also does not "keep his weight underside." He's floating more than you'd like.
We could go on, but that's the 30-second audio memo.
........
Obviously, for a teenager to show a functional MLB(TM) delivery, that's the cat's pajamas. At 18, Taijuan had zero leverage. He showed up last fall with outstanding leverage. Sanchez could gain additional torque and power.
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=== Arsenal ===
BaseballHQ sez,
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Fastball 90-94 ... 4 of 5 stars
Changeup 83-87 ... 3 stars
Slider 82-84 ... 2 stars
"Short SP with thick build who was youngest player in league. Frame doesn't leave much room for projections, but has good arsenal. Changes speeds with advanced [changeup] and can drop hard SL in for [called] strikes. FB is bread and butter with excellent location. Still work to do in delivery and can show arm speed on changeup."
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That's how Erasmo's file would have ... actually, should have looked at a similar age, but Sanchez is more advanced than Erasmo would have been at that age.
The problem for both pitchers is that the short arms, and short stride, create an "invisible shortening" of the fastball and that's a huge difficulty to work around. It's one thing to have a slow fastball; it's another thing to have a fastball that's slower than it looks. Ask Ian Snell.
Another problem for Sanchez is that he's probably got pretty much the pitches now that he will have in four years. This is part of the body issue that Gordon's been talking about.
...........
All that said, there is SOME reason that Victor Sanchez, at age 17, is doing things that Ian Snell never did learn to do. A lot of sports success is based in the mind, the personality, not in the arm.
How far will Sanchez' inner personality, and location, and changeup, take him? Nothing for it but to watch.
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Comments
... to throw up Erasmo comparisons when it comes to Sanchez. Lemme explain...
Victor Sanchez was born and grew up in Venezuela, and so was given the opportunity to learn the game in one of the best baseball cultures south of the US.
Erasmo, on the other hand, was born in Nicaragua where baseball is almost nonexistent.
From the time he was 12, Victor Sanchez was playing baseball at some pretty high levels and getting some of the best instruction available.
At 12, Erasmo Ramirez had to leave his home in Nicaragua and traveled to San Salvador, El Salvador to attend a school that gave boys some basic training in baseball. During this time, Erasmo was determined to become a professional baseball player in the US, so he taught himself to speak English.
At 16, Victor Sanchez was the prize of the international scene and commanded top dollar, which the Mariners paid when they signed him.
As a 17 year old, Erasmo Ramirez was spotted by Jorge Bahaia, who in turn introduced him to Mariners scouts Ubaldo Heredia and Bob Engle, and in September of 2007 Erasmo signed his first professional contract.
Sanchez was brought stateside as a 17 years old.
Erasmo spent his first two years as a professional playing in the Venezuelan Summer League, and was then brought to the US after having a spectacular season in the VSL in 2009 (2009 Mariners Pitcher of the Year).
Sanchez, with the training and experience that he gained from the time he was 12, and with his own natural talents, went to the Northwest League and dominated and is on everyone's lips as a phenom.
Erasmo was sent to the Midwest League in 2010 where he owned the league and was a Midwest League mid-season all-star and a post-season all-star. Erasmo was also named the Clinton LumberKings Pitcher of the Year. In 2011 Erasmo finally got some love and jumped over the cesspit known as High-A High Desert and went straight to AA Jackson. After showing that he knew how to pitch at the AA level, Erasmo was promoted to AAA Tacoma where he struggled a little bit. During his time in AA and at AAA Erasmo had a jump in his fastball velocity from 90-92 mph to 93-95 mph
2012 Erasmo repeated at AAA Tacoma and dominated the PCL and was promoted to the Mariners where he quickly slipped into the rotation.
Ok, so now you are probably wondering what my point is (and, so am I all of a sudden...). My point is that Erasmo embodies what a blue-collar worker is. He came from very humble beginnings, had to leave his home at a young age to chase his dream, busted his rump until he was noticed, and then busted it even harder. Erasmo did not have fans early on because he was so... projectable. He gained a few fans (me, G, and a field full of crickets) from his hard work and maximizing the talent that he has.
If Victor Sanchez has one tenth of the drive and determination that Erasmo has displayed, then he could be a force to reckon with. I'm not saying that he doesn't of course, but the comparison isn't fair until we start to see some of that drive and determination from young Mr Filthy Sanchez.
I remember when ERam first popped up on the radar (here or at MC). Someone noted this young guy in the VSL with miniscule walk rates and great control ratios...
2009 sounds about right. Good call (I do believe it was Lonnie or G that sounded the call) guys!
How sure are we that he isn't 25?
... of high character, I would be shocked to no end to learn that he is actually older than he is. Also, he has that baby face thing going on for him. I guess that I'd have to say that I am more sure of his age than I am of a lot of things.
I was thinking of Sanchez. He's huge. He gives the appearance of being a man among boys. Just sayin'.