.
JOE SAUNDERS
In fairness, he'd thrown like 4 good games before getting destroyed by the Pirates on Tuesday.
In added fairness, his K/BB/HR is running at perfect RPM redline:
| Season | K | BB | HR |
| 2011 D'Backs | 4.58 | 2.84 | 1.23 |
| 2013 Mariners | 4.69 | 2.87 | 1.24 |
The 2011 Joe Saunders wouldn't have gone out and run a K/BB/HR as similar to 2011 as the 2013 Saunders has. I dunno what I'm sayin'... he was what they thought he was. He's the same; circumstances are not.
Okay. Saunders was brought in on a one-year deal. There were reasons for that. Those reasons are now well-and-truly extinct. Seriously. List the reasons he was brought here, and now ask whether those reasons still exist. Hint: they do not.
.
KENDRYS MORALES
Hitting .146/.205/.220 the last two weeks, as the Mariners attempt to rise from the ashes and fan the flames of their "attack" on being anywhere near .500.
Dr. D has imperiously ruled his 2009 a career spike, never to return. That would be rather important as it applies to his bank account. Two months ago, we were discussing his shot at a career year and a $75M deal; the "qualifying offer" for him, coming in to this year, was what, $13, 14M? We have presumed that he'd cost way too much to stay in Seattle. But as you point out, he'd be a cool DH, at the right price.
.
BRENDAN RYAN
.118 AVG with a .147 SLG the last two weeks. For a short time there, it looked like maybe he'd salvage a "nauseating" offensive season. He has collapsed back in to "gasp-inducing."
In 2003, at age 30, Pokey Reese hit as bad as Ryan ... well, almost, not quite. In 2004 the Red Sox brought him in to back up as a glove specialist. At that time, the Founding Father told me acidly via e-mail, "Our field manager thought he was the best defensive player in baseball, which we conceded might be worth a #25 roster slot." Pokey retired the next year.
It's a creative idea, using him as a defensive specialist, and Earl used to love highly-specialized bench players. Not this one, I don't think. He's obviously a strong personality in the clubhouse, and it's not clear to me that glove wizards make good backup infielders anyway.
That's my opinion I could be wrong.
.
MICHAEL MORSE
He hit 6 home runs in the first 10 games, was thrilled to be here, and it wasn't his fault that he took a nasty fastball off the metacarpal. That's not injury prone, getting hit on the finger like that.
Also, he's hitting .375 with a .563 SLG the last two weeks. He's a big guy, takes a big rip at the bawl, and it takes him ten days to get his timing back after one of his many injuries. His OPS+ is 115 and when he's right, he is a serviceable MLB(TM) Cleanup Hitter.
That said, Dr. D agrees with youse guys: as he turns 31, he's a proven health question. Only once has he played more than 102 games.
The UP scenario for him, as with Morales, is for him to take a Hisashi Iwakuma-type cut rate deal, and then to "surprise" with a career year in 2014 or 2015. That's perfectly feasible.
Youse guys prefer Morales in that scenario. I prefer Morse, would still be enthused to see him re-up, but it's kind of a matter of taste. Part of it is Morse being able to play the field, and part is the fact that Morales is somewhat similar to what the U-26 crew brings to the table.
.
JASON BAY
Slugging .125 the last two weeks. We didn't say, "batting" .125. His health seems to be flagging already in June. See the last Joe Saunders paragraph, please.
.
ENDY CHAVEZ
OBP in the 2's and SLG in the 2's, lately. See the last Jason Bay paragraph, please. The young players are now doing well enough that the swap-out looms, and we haven't even gotten to Spec's topic of the pitching rotation.
What kind of delta do you expect now, the rest of the season, between Endy Chavez, OF, and Dustin Ackley, OF? Between Jason Bay and Justin Smoak? Seems here that Rauuuul, Morales, and Morse are plenty 'nuff retreads from here on out.
.........
All things considered, I'd rather be in Philadelphia, sez the Mariners' pennant chances. But we like the fact that the right players are the ones coming on.
...you have E-Ram detonating AAA, Walker looking nearly ready, Hultzen getting healthy (though I still think the Ms will play it safe with him and shut him down in late August), and Miller looking just as good as Franklin.
"Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people."
I quit betting on Ryan many furlongs ago. He looks like one of those horses that walk in circles at carnivals with 5 year olds on their backs compared to the frisky, dashing foal name Miller that is grazing in Tacoma.
Bay was a cheap claiming race find. We got 8 homers out of him, way more than we expected. Count your money and run on this one Z.
You are exactly right, Doc......the factors that once deemed a Saunders' signing somewhat near-to-astute no longer exist. Somebody has a bag of resin and sack of balls they will give us for him and we have some wild, hard-charging colts worthy of a Trifecta bet (Man o' Walker to Win, ERamtariat to Place and Seattle Paxton to Show, with SeaHultzen charging along the rail) chomping at the bit. No bag of resin offers? Off to the glue factory for Saunders.
Morales has turned into too much of a mudder. He's no longer able to electrify a fast track. There are teams, however, that would like a stable, proven war horse like him for 1/2 a season. Off to Detroit or NY with him. But for the right price, he could be a capable draught horse for us for another year, as long as we don't overbid.
Morse? I'll hang on to him for a bit. DH him and hope he's still capable of being the mashing Stud he once was.
Endy? He's not great, but he's a versatile quarterhorse and still useful. Until we get 4 healthy OF's in Seattle this season I'm keeping him.
Guti? Thank goodness he isn't a horse, If he were, we would have put him down.
Get yer tout sheets here!
moe
We're caught right where I was afraid we might be (again): the most talented players are the ones with the least experience, and we're in danger of placing the load of, well, everything on their shoulders.
I can't argue that these people should go:
(Two of) Saunders/ Harang/ Bondy, Ryan, Bay, maybe Chavez. That's a nice easy roster scrubbing well before the trade deadline, because we're getting VERY little for anybody on that list. The DFA line might wrap around the block.
And then these people should arrive: E-Ram and another starter (probably Maurer while we wait on Hultzen and Walker for another minute), Miller, Abe Almonte.
The 2015 versions of Seager, Miller, Franklin, Zunino and Ackley can probably carry the weight of the offense. Get em some kind of slugger for a corner and call it good, right? Maybe an OBP guy for first (hey, Choi will be around then, maybe Peterson too...).
I'm leery of that in 2013. Of course, how much worse could the offense be, right? Seager and Franklin are ALREADY doing the heavy lifting, with Morse and Morales having their injury nicks. I just think one of the things that hurt Ackley from a greed perspective was making him the #3 bat in a lineup that was just kids (because the corpses of the vets were worthless) and Smoak imploded right around the time we made him the cleanup hitter after 2 months with us. We can't really afford that, whether or not correlation = causation in those cases.
*shrugs* I just don't think the baseball is likely to get much better by moving Tacoma into Safeco Field. The upside might make it more bearable - if Miller hits .200 you figure it won't last, unlike with Brendan Ryan.
But we'll find out in short order. E-Ram and Maurer can come back now; their service clocks are running. Walker and Hultzen are gonna wait til after the Super Two deadline, and I would expect Miller to as well. It's 2 weeks away, might as well hang on til then. It's not like we're in a pennant race.
August and September could be interesting baseball. I dunno when we're EVER gonna get interesting May and June baseball, but there's always next year...
~G
For now it does look like another round of glittery prospects carrying the load in 2014. Some will succeed, odds are more will fail. A bit of help for Zunino would be great, they're doing all they can to snuff his bat in world record time. Perhaps a sturdy hitter or two will appear (or re-sign) over the next 7-8 months to keep the whole thing afloat this time around. Lots of guys moving around each offseason, how about fixing another teams broken 26 year old hitting prospect? Could we possibly snag another Jaso? Seems we rarely try that route, 90% of the time it is veteran bat on the downslope.
Just get all the kids a tangerine sized plug of chaw like Franklin! Problem solved.
And Blanco and Ibanez are the old plow horses we get out once a week to pull the carriage on Sundays - and they high-step and show the young colts what it's all about - happy to be in harness.
Chavez is not a great lead-off hitter, but he's reasonably effective and comfortable. I keep him until Miller is up and comfortable and can take over at lead-off. Then I bring up Almonte. I agree that putting guys into critical positions too fast is not a great idea. Endy lets us ease into at least one.
This is a good point. I'm especially worried about Zunino and I hope they're making the right call in having him take AB's at the ML level this early in his development.
Zunino, Ackley, Franklin, Saunders, and Miller are super-important. They don't need to be superstars, but they do need to be average to plus regular, everyday starting ML players.