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On July 19, 2013, the Seattle Mariners started both Dustin Ackley and Raul Ibanez in the outfield against the Cubs. They gave up 7 runs, but scored 10, and won.
On July 9, 2013, the M's started Ackley and Ibanez against the Red Sox, and gave up 11 runs. They lost, 8-11.
How's this OF config working for them?
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Defense ... vs Offense ... vs Roster Config. THREE Subjects, Not Two
Hm. I wasn't biased either way when I started typing, but at first glance, the 1B/DH answer looked like kind of a no-brainer to me. The center field defense was kind of kludgy there for a few weeks. On the other hand, our offense went from vomit-worthy to the team strength. Not meaning to be snide, why are we talking about this?
Well, there is a reason, or could be. The team's DER is .700 this year, #24 in baseball. Last year it was .718, #4 in baseball. If you want to angle the discussion 10 degrees, and debate offense vs. defense in 2013, that would be a legit debate (and we all know where it would wind up).
But the center field defense, as such? How much of that .718 to .700 DER dropoff is due to CF? Saunders HAS played the lion's share of the CF defense in 2013.
Ackley's played 24 games in CF, and he will play there in 2014 whatever your roster config. Ackley's CF play isn't going to be a cost associated with anything. Except with the 2009 draft.
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The DER is way down. Has that changed since the rookie DP combo came up? UZR gives -11 runs defense the last 30 days, the worst in baseball. Okay, is the Miller-Franklin Team Defense in fact terrible?
Your Mileage May Vary. Other defensive metrics will show the M's as less terrible.
You ask me, it is clear that team defense needs attention (not necessarily to say, different players). Whether you can do that with Morse and Raul both coming back, that would be my Core Question. A dominating defensive outfielder would certainly be a clean approach to it.
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Scout's Eye
My own opinion on the defense:
THAT SAID, the outfield defense has been a joke. With a capital J.
It was a stipulated team weakness in 2013. That was okay. But
SSI believes that you have a safe conclusion here: the 2014 Mariners need to handle Ackley OF and Rauuul OF very, very gingerly.
If Ackley's in the outfield at all -- unless he improves -- it needs to be tentative and he needs two excellent gloves with him out there. The same applies to Rauuuul. His games in the OF should be limited and should be in the context of "balancing" an outfield that has good defensive players in it.
If you gamble on Ackley in 2014 as a guy who is going to play a lot of OF defense, it better be because you believe he is going to improve, and quickly. Zduriencik is very willing to bet on defensive improvement. As Gordon told us Right. Off. the. Bat., Dustin Ackley's routes are not major league quality. (That ain't his fault.)
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These are two different types of outfields the M's will look at in 2014:
That second outfield probably drops below the Tipping Point. You better have a 10K, groundball pitcher on the mound....
It's a funny thing, though. Go down Dustin Ackley's game logs, and in the far right column you see where he started in CF. In the 8th column, you see the runs the team gave up. Whale of a lot of low-scoring games with Raul and Ackley out there.
Defense is part of the game, but it's not the most critical aspect. Put nine Edgars out there with Randy Johnson on the mound, and you're going to be okay.
These problems are so complex, ain't they :- )
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UZR actually thinks he's been a huge problem, his CF UZR is actually -24/150, his LF UZR is the excellent 35/150. After a -5/150for Saunders last season, the Mariners decision to play Ackley in Center might be as much a judgement on Michael Saunders struggles to fulfill the position as anything else. Michael Saunders strong July coincided with his shift from primary Center Fielder to back up, and he has amazing range in a corner to cover for a novice CF.
Saunders is a fringy CF and a phenomenal COF...he'll be a whale of a stop loss against Ackley's continued struggles in CF if we can add a RF who can both field and hit (Beltran?) or if we choose to go with a decent bat/bad glove at the other corner.
You guys remember the classic Trek series? Every episode some nameless security guard ended up getting blasted into particles by some ticked off alien. Those guys must have had an avg. mission survivial rate that was less than a B-17 tail gunner. They were, in a word, expendable.
I think we're getting there with Ackley. Getting there pretty quickly, in fact.
He isn't showing much in CF. He got Pipped at 2B. And we're not seeing him in LF or at 1B. And his bat stinks.
Beyond that, we have Ty Kelley in Tacoma, who is only hitting .333-461-.452 there. Basically those numbers are exactly what Ackley did in AAA this year. Just about the same number of PA's, too. Kelley has started at 2B, 3B, LF and CF. But let's call him an IF.
Abe Almonte is continuing to whack away (.300-.372-.451) and has played in 441 MiLB games as a CF. He translates nicely to LF, too.
Stefen Romero is down some in AAA (.281-.331-.429), but he hits doubles at a 40+ clip. He plays COF, 2B, 3B and 1B.
All those guys are in-house options who make Ackley and expendable dude. I suppose you keep Ackley into '14, hoping he finds his bat, again. But as a near GG 2B with an100+ OPS+ upside, he might have value in swap-talks, too.
Paired with a prospect arm, we might get something shiny in return. Of helpful, anyway.
I can't see us brining Guti back next year at $7.5M. Renogiate and keep him as a 4th OF, playing only against lefties (and not playing in CFR) might be a nice thing....but I figure he's a goner, an expendable security guard, himself.
Ruling out Choi and Morban for next year leaves us with the same COF whole we've had, one just right for a RH bat.
What would an Almonte-Saunders-Morse OF look like guys? Actually Morse playing fulltime vs. lefties at !B, and getting half the starts in the OF vs RHP would be fine by me, too.
And I still think we sniff at Kyle Banks. Smoak 1B's agains't RHP. Montero DH's 140 times. That leaves 70-80 1B/DH starts for Morse and Banks. Give 'em RF and you get 240 starts between them. You could do lots worse.
Saunders and Almonte play + one of versatile Ackley/Kelley/Romero.
All doable. And decent offensively, too.
2 years ago, Dustin Ackley was our bright and shining light, outside of Felix. The bulb is now considerably dimmer and we have others. It is quite expendable.
moe
How is Abraham Almonte's defense? Can he play a credible CF in the bigs? The kid seems to have a nice package of tools: speed, eye, enough power to keep pitchers honest and draw walks. If he's a plus defensive center fielder I like him about as much as these other names getting thrown around.