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Q. You said you saw this guy once - that being this once. Any idea whether his effectiveness will hold up?
A. Here is an article that starts you out on the fact that --- > 13 K, 3 BB, 0.5 HR do not go with a 5.00 ERA. Search baseball history and, yep, it turns out that 13/3/0.5 aren't commonly found attached to high ERA's.
Sorry. You know I can't resist. :: winning Anthony Hopkins smile ::
OK. Thirteen strikeouts and a low walk rate lead to nice ERA's. Stipulated. Now as to the rest of it, where Danny is likely to go from here, you know what to do. Click on SSI, baby!
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Q. What was your first impression?
A. This is a guy who Loves. To. Pitch.
Mo' Dawg, Lonnie, Terry, Bat, you guys remember Al Hrabosky. LOL. This is the closest I've seen since...
I mean with some guys, "makeup" is a cliche. With Danny Farquhar it is part of the fabric of what his life is written on -- starting with 77 MPH strike ones to Ben Zobrist in the 9th.
Maybe you oldtimers remember Leon Spinks as a young toothless kid at the Olympics. Right out of the gate, afraid of absolutely no one. That is the way with Farquhar. He loves to fight. He would be the same way in game Seven of the World Series. I'll go to war with a man like that on my side.
.........
It is precisely that makeup which --- > soothes Dr. D's jangled nerves about that change-slider to LHB's. Only with the stones of a Tom Gordon, or a Trevor Hoffman, can a righty make that kind of offspeed sneak-o-rama work.
Hoffman loved, loved, loved to triple up on his change. He sold it, sold it every pitch of his career, because he loved to throw it. Farquhar is a man who loves to crack his arm through there and pull the string on the yo-yo halfway to the plate. It is that "makeup" factor alone that mollifies me about Farquhar's arsenal.
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Q. Comparables?
A. Want to hear something weird, Danny Farquhar looks like a mirror-image Erik Bedard. That slow hook is the truth. Especially the wrist snap at the finish.
You want to make your own lists of comparables, they would have those righties with decent fastballs, great yo-yo pitches, and a lot of elan. Funny thing: Isringhausen, and Gordon, and Hoffman, those guys did rack up K's. Even with 90-92 fastballs.
Thirteen strikeouts a game, no way. This guy isn't Aroldis Chapman. But Jason Isringhausen, he used to consistently produce 8.5 to 9.3 strikeouts with stuff exactly like Farquhar's.
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Q. Is the effectiveness totally reliant on the inverse-Bedard curve?
A. He's got this 88-90 MPH "cutter" that really breaks like a slider.
I couldn't believe my eyes. He threw it backdoor, like Jeff Nelson, or like Randy Johnson from the other side, breaking to just catch the corner. Usually you can't do that to lefties - it breaks onto the barrel of their bats at "slow fastball" speed. But Farquhar's decisions are just a scream to watch. Every single pitch is an attempted thumb to the eye.
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Q. Is he a slow-curve guy, or is he a three-pitch guy?
A. Far as I can tell, he's both. (?!) The hook is good enough to put him in a Tom Gordon template, or it may be. But the super-slider is tough too, and the guy hits 95 MPH with the challenge fastball.
Considering the three pitches and the guts to throw any one of them at any time ... why worry? That was DrMikeMarshall.com's whole thing. Three pitches, random sequences, why wouldn't you be effective? Or so Marshall says.
Marshall's 33-33-33 concept -- right down to the dice rolls -- sounds good in principle. In practice? The "dice roll" approach only looks good on a select few guys. Especially in relief!
Farquhar, it actually looks good on, don' it?
Give me a "concrete variation," as they say in Russian chess. Name me somebody, RHP, who can come with any of 3 pitches in any count. The list is short. Especially out of the pen.
Well, it includes all Japanese pitchers :- )
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Q. Three pitches. Maybe he should start?
A. He carries that back elbow real high, and there's something that just doesn't feel right about him using the same pitches as a starter. Like they wouldn't wear well, or something. That was the way with Isringhausen. Just my cornball guess.
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Q. Platoon splits?
A. Farquhar's pitches sweeeeeeep wayyyyy across the plate, right to left. It appears to be a given that he'll give RHB's a rough ride.
We only saw him against (ummm) Evan Blinkin' Longoria, and DF started with two 89 MPH super-sliders low and away. Both made Longoria look like a class-A hitter. Note very carefully that the slider "cutter" is Farquhar's worst pitch.
Tough to imagine how Farquhar could fail against righties. Against lefties? That's what they'll be watching, but it looks very exciting so far. My guess is ... 65-35 ... that in a month, he'll still be freezing lefties with that hook.
..........
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's early, real early. But! Those 13 strikeouts are comin' from somewhere, and tonight we realized they're comin' from somewhere pretty real.
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Q. So Dr. D would install him at closer?
A. Well, he's going to get to surf this wave until it hits the beach, you know that. He's 5-for-5 and EVERYbody in baseball loves an attitude like that.
Right now my idea would be the same as the M's actually is, right now. Let him close for a month, try not to die laughing, and look up in a month to decide what we've got.
Hey, you Mariner-type execs. You suuuure you don't want to give the Bartender an (um) shot at starting?
In stitches,
Dr D
The next month or even the rest of the year... what happens if Danny is still perfect?
I wonder who would be the favorite to win the closer role in spring training?
Is it even a guarantee that Danny is in the Mariner's pen to start next year?
I do not know, but I bet Danny has a lot of people to convince over the next 40 games...
If you've seen him once, that's one more than me, Doc. But, even if I had seen him a dozen times, your visual take would bash mine over the head.
But, what whispers do I get when I look at the numbers?
1) In 2009, at age 22, in the Toronto org, (A+ and AA), he put up a 10.6 K/9 with a 1.87 ERA in 62.2 IPs. Though relievers' small samples tend to make their TTO rates erratic due to the small samples, the kid was whiffing double digits from day one. No clue about the velocity or motion change in regards to Ks ... but, the numbers show the kid had MAJOR control issues early on. Initially, as his control improved his K totals fell.
Year - HR / BB / K (per 9) - IP
2009 - 0.1 / 5.9 / 10.6 --- 62.2 - (A+ / AA)
2010 - 0.8 / 4.9 / 9.3 --- 76.2 - (AA)
2011 - 0.6 / 3.2 / 7.8 --- 59.2 - (AAA)
The control problems have subsided, but it's a clear tradeoff of Ks for the walks. Then, in 2012, he pitched in 7 different minor league towns.
2012 - 0.4 / 2.8 / 9.3 --- 68.0 - (AA / AAA)
2013 - 0.4 / 1.8 / 13.5 -- 20.0 - (AAA)
What amazes me about the 2012 season is that he pitched for TOR, SEA, NYY, and OAK all in the same year, (and hit both AA and AAA for almost everybody. It was about the least conducive circumstance to attempt to master your craft. The kid didn't care.
But, yes, this season is the first where he was posting 13 Ks per 9. One should shrug that off as above reality -- except, of course, that rate didn't drop when he got to Seattle.
Numerically, he looked like an easy MLB transition. But, early on, it seemed every body that reached base found a way to score, (even though he didn't have any gopher issues). I don't think it was "all" bad luck. I got the sense there was some major flaw that was probably getting magnified by bad luck. But, his H/9 wasn't all that bad.
Through July 19, he had allowed 28 hits total (only 2 dingers). Yet, 22 runs had scored. The 10 walks doesn't explain that. That's in about 23 innings. It's insanely bad luck.
That said - Doc says he shoould devastate righties and lefties are a danger. That is not what has happened. Oddly, he has faced a near equal number of hitters from both sides.
vs RHB - 77-PA; .299/.364/.418 (.782) --- BABIP = .487 -- 8-BB; 29-K - 1-HR
vs LHB - 81-PA; .162/.225/.216 (.441) --- BABIP = .250 -- 6-BB; 29-K - 1-HR
His TTO stats are nearly identical ... but how does ANYBODY run a .487 BABIP against while striking out every other hitter?!?
Okay, small splits are volatile. His overall line is still: .227/.293/.312 (.605).
Most of his troubles have (oddly) come at home, (.646 OPS in Safeco ... .561 on the road). The Safeco OPS is driven by a .415 BABIP.
Numerically, when he gets hit, it is not hard. No gopheritis. An aggregate ISO against of under 100.
For most of the year, if he gave up even one hit, he was giving up runs. Whether his run of bad luck was really luck or some subtle part of his total package, I have no clue. All I know for certain is over his last 10 outings his 'luck' changed, and while he has allowed a hit here and there, he hasn't allowed a run.
While the K rate will most likely drop back to around 10, (it's HARD to maintain double digit K rates over long periods), at the moment, I'm inclined to believe that whatever the root problem was that led to the inordinate number of runs given his peripherals was either luck (and luck so off the charts bad as very unlikely to return), or the underlying problem has been resolved as part of the development process.
I completely get why one would be antsy about a kid so far out of normal templates ... but then again, I personally believe that much of the "closer template" MLB mindset is cultural hogwash - where 90% of the closer decisions are based on the same faulty premises, so way more of it than should be is simply self-fulfilling prophecy. If you throw 100 mph - you get a shot to close ... if you fail, you get some additional opportunities - and some guys figure it out. If you're "off template", mostly you don't get a shot, and only close when the "real" closer is unavailable. And when you don't fit the mold and ARE given a chance, and are immediately successful, you are pegged as a "well, nobody else could do that". There can be only one Trevor Hoffman.
I think a lot of the problem is fear and ego based. No manager is going to be questioned for "trying" a guy who can throw 98 as a closer. If he fails, it was still a reasonable decision. It just didn't work out. But, if you go with a soft tosser and he fails, you were an idiot to try.
Things are better thanks to SABR. But that doesn't mean there are not still arenas where common wisdom prevents data from surfacing to even have enough to potentially challenge accepted wisdom.
I'm not really sure why you think he throws 90-ish. He does, but it's with his MOVING fastball, not his straight one. He's not fooling people out there, he's brutalizing them.
He began his life as a bullpenner with basically one pitch, the mid-90s heat. He first noodled around with a cutter a couple of years ago, which is what one of Jack's scouts saw the same season we got him and why we picked him up in the first place (Jack noted it at the time). And now he's got the curve that he keeps bombing on people.
Dude throws his fastball at 96, his cutter at 90, and the breaking-whatever in the 70s. His problem earlier in the year was getting too much of the plate and being afraid to pitch inside. Thankfully our 41 year old catcher had a word with him, told him to make batters uncomfortable and that he was too good to get lit up like that:
“I had a little rough spell a couple of weeks ago,” Farquhar said. “And he said, ‘With your stuff you need to start pounding hitters in.’ And I really took it to heart and I started applying it. A lot of my success is due to Henry’s talk with me.” Farquhar admitted he was getting too comfortable pitching away to hitters. It’s a common affliction among big league pitchers, leading to predictability and poor results.
“I have noticed that relievers like to tend to stay away in general,” Farquhar said. “Away is a very safe part of the zone. But if you live away, they are going to hit you hard. They are just going to sit away.” So with Blanco’s urging, he started busting hitters inside with his mid-90s fastball and hard cut fastball while mixing in a slow curve to keep them off balance.
“I was mostly going along with what’s comfortable for me instead of making a conscious effort to make hitters uncomfortable in the box,” Farquhar said. “But the talk really woke me up.”
He was Brandon League, who only cared to do what he wanted and didn't get the proper results for his stuff. Since that conversation, in the second half:
1.20 ERA in 15 IP, 23K / 4 BB, batters are OPSing .323 (!) against him. And more than one team's opposing announcers - and players - have gone, "who is THAT guy?" on the air.
Farquhar is for real. Now that he's comfortable throwing the breaker (btw, Doc, he never threw it before, it was all fastballs up in the zone and away) he's demolishing people, as he should with a FB that runs away, a cutter that runs in, and a breaker that cuts the zone like a slow samurai sword.
He has Wilhelmsen's heat with a cutter on the fists to righties and a breaking ball he can actually throw for strikes. No trickery involved, Doc, just eviscerations. When people sit on your 96 MPH heat because it's the only thing they have a prayer of putting wood on, life is pretty good.
The lightbulb went on with Farquhar, IMO. Consider his plateau jumped.
Somebody tell Blanco to talk to Capps next.
~G
Maybe DF can teach Beavan his breaking pitch.
He apparently believes the axiom "he who walks the fewest guys, wins" which might be true if you pitch like Cliff Lee, but he doesn't.
Beavan is a huge guy with big hands. I would be willing to start a Kickstarter to buy Putz a plane ticket to come out and show Beavan the forkball. He should have the hands for it. At SOME point he's gonna find a breaker and be a useful pitcher, right?
~G
I saw the Longoria AB: No contest!
I thought that Farquhar looked all gangly and arm-ey and odd. Hard to pick up the ball odd. I thought his FB had more pop than advertised. It played faster. But if your best pitch is essentially a bending/ephus/Hooten-esque knuckle-curve/change....then your 94 MPH heater becomes a red corvette. It just looks fast, standing still.
The Mad Hungarian loved to pitch. Eckersly loved to pitch. Hoffman loved to pitch. And they had mojo-sized nards, too.
Don't know much yet about F'q, but I was really impressed with the save the other night. I cringed when League came in as a closer, because he had one offering. If you layed off it, he was toast. He wasn't good enough to dominate with it.
The problem with the ephus-type yakker, for a batter facing the closer who throws it, is that you only see it in one AB. You might only see two of them in that AB. And the pitch in-between just hopped off your internal radar gun.
Give 'em three assorted pitches, anytime, anywhere. Make one of 'em a seemingly turboed FB. Add a Lee Treveno/John Stockton/Bobby Riggs/some Hungarian dude wheeling and dealing = not a bad template.
Give him the job for the next 50 days!
And IMO, short pitchers need to pitch up in the zone more than tall ones. Doc talks about effective velocity being different when you're Doug Fister and releasing the ball 9 feet in the air. That whole throwing downhill thing does matter. Short guys throw straighter-looking fastballs because the change in height coming to the plate is not as great, and so the hitters get more time to react. 96 from a short guy isn't like 96 from Randy Johnson. Them's the breaks.
But little guys can defeat that by throwing up in the zone, because it's an angle that most batters don't see often. They see tall pitchers work low, but not short pitchers work high. And it just seems to me that all the little-guy pitchers who immediately come to mind as being good weren't afraid to throw the high heat. When you can't throw downhill (though some shorter guys like Oswalt released the ball pretty high and got on top of it well) then you'd better do something else to change the eye angle.
Neither Farquhar nor Erasmo are afraid of the upper parts of the zone. IMO that's a good thing.
~G
did anyone else read something about Danny learning his cut fastball from watching youtube videos of Mariano Rivera? If true, and I am remembering correctly, I certainly like his approach more than pitchers we have had in the past (cough League cough). There is something really great about a guy who bounces around and does whatever it takes to find a way to stick. They always seem to become my favorite players.
It seems that is rare in baseball today. Front offices in MLB seem to be operating more and like NFL front offices, leaving no stone unturned. But I don't read much about the actual players following suit. With Farquhar and before him Saunders (remaking his swing and grinding his teeth and fighting his body for 2 years trying to make himself into a MLB regular we now have a couple guys who seem to be willing to do ANYTHING to stay up and contribute. And both, if they stick to these gains, are due for a nice little payday. Nice success stories.
It would also be nice if their attitude and approach rubbed off on the entire organization more and the Mariner "way" became doing whatever it takes for the victory. That is why I was a little upset when more wasn't made of Seager's bunt base hit against the shift a few days ago. This should be celebrated more instead of treating it as an oddity.
If Beavan came up with a quality breaking pitch, it would be worth millions to him in future contracts. Maybe $10 - 20 mm. You'd think he'd be working on one night and day.
Doc - what I remember mostly about Hrbosky was all the hub-bub he created. He had great production values, stompin around and spitting, but wasn't really that good a pitcher. Farquhar has way better stuff and already way better command. A lot of guys used to be closers cuz they acted like one. Hrbosky, if memory serves, threw a lot of not very fast fastballs with a little tail and developed a good forkball, but had really nothing else. Hard to believe the Cards won with him as their ninth inning man. In fact, I don't think he was a closer for most of his career, but a 7th-8th inning guy. Look at all the wins he vultured up.
Generally speaking, I think today's bullpens are way better than they've ever been. Not sure Al could make most rosters.
In any event, I agree with Gordon on Farquhar - his stuff looks dynamic to me.and I've watched pretty much every appearance he's made this year. His cutter makes his four-seamer pretty much unhittable when he throws it above the hands. I expect him, Williamson, Medina, Capps and Pryor to present a formidable bullpen back end, although making that list it seems likely somebody is going to get traded.
Back in high school, Beavan threw a splitter.
It was either the Rangers or Mariners coaches that made him stop throwing it, because they were afraid he would hurt his arm.
I wonder when Beavan will decide to try to start throwing it again...
Although for three or four years there, his K rate was pretty good for the 70's. ... his similarities to Farquahar begin and end with the exaggerated showdown body language, probably. :- )