I definitely agree that you have to consider in-clubhouse factors and the mental state of your closer. It's why I hardly ever give Wedge (or Thompson) flak about their lineups; they're the ones on the ground there, not me. If there's some reason why your closer needs the late-game atmosphere to be really effective, or whatever, then... sure. The manager'd know that better than me.
But there's not a whole lot of reason to believe that with Farquhar, is there? I mean, he's basically been a middle reliever for the last couple years... he's got, what, six saves? You're right. Very weird to treat him like a marquee closer. You'd think that the new guys on the job, like Farquhar and 2012 Wilhelmsen, would be the ones to get used in tie games, but I guess not under the Wedge regime.
I don't buy that ALL premier closers need to come in only in save situations, either. Part of why this ticked me off is because we'd literally just seen Ron Washington throw star closer Joe Nathan out there to hold the Mariners in a tie game (sure, Nathan imploded, but I also remember Wash having done this with him before and getting very good results out of it.) Texas doesn't seem to share the belief that closers should be exclusive to save situations.
It wouldn't be that hard, to allow yourself to get the closer warmed up in time for a tie. You don't even have to burn him before the ninth in close games. Just, if it's a tight score, warm him up to be ready for the ninth inning, just in case you take the lead, and then if you're tied - hey! Our best reliever's ready to go!
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... none of which was to say, that a manager CAN'T go against convention, risk his job, risk his relationship with the team and GM, and use a Closer to win the game in the 8th inning.
Dr. D's little heart burst with admiration in 1995, as Lou Piniella used Norm Charlton in one tie game after another. He joined the M's in July of 1995, immediately became their best relief pitcher, and you can see from his game logs how many 2.0 and 2+ inning stints he had -- even while saving games. (Add to that the playoffs, where Charlton pitched 13+ innings in 7 appearances.) You're talking about a manager who would use Randy Johnson in relief if that's what it took to win a game.
It was thrilling to watch the 1995 Lou Piniella use a bullpen as if he were playing Strat-O-Matic, but compadre Thirteen wasn't born yet, and the next year Randy Johnson was injured. Norm Charlton's BB ratio went to 4.5 the next year to 6.1 the year after that.
A manager can get away with Strat-O-Matic if he is a towering monolith of the game, like Lou Piniella or Earl Weaver. (Earl didn't care for the 1-Inning Closer, either, that I recall.)
Dr. D is not sure that Robby Thompson is quite in this category. Whether Robby Thompson has the political capital to make daring, asset-risky decisions from his manager's seat, that sounds a little bit dubious to Dr. D. Thompson is like a squirrel trying to collect acorns for the winter, trying not to tick anybody off while he fills in for Wedge, trying to plaster in the cracks in the wall of his future in Seattle.
That said, my own impression of Mr. Thompson's interim managing is not at alllllll positive .... another day, gentlemen. They say Wedge is back this Friday. This month, most of us probably have gained in respect for Wedge's job performance. People who can do Wedge's job, as well as he can do it, number .... well, how many astronauts are there in the world? :- )
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Caveat on Danny Farquhar
As it applies to Faquhar himself, there is a 1,001st light bulb. In the comments to James' 2008 article, commenter sgoldleaf opines,
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I believe this is one way that the [save] stat, as defined, has affected strategy, and I find it has affected strategy for the worse. I dislike this stat because it discourages managers from thinking. The manager now has a ready-made excuse whenever his closer is ineffective: “Hey, that's his role,” neglecting to mention that the manager knew full well that his closer had pitched in three straight games, increasingly ineffectively, that another pitcher was ready to go, that this other pitcher was healthy while the closer had been vomiting prior to the game, etc. That was his role, ergo he pitched. QED. The manager is not responsible for picking personnel—the stat determines who is used and when.
It also makes all managers closer to being equal, the smart managers and the dumb ones alike. The manager who knows his players, knows his matchups, distinguishes a crucial spot from a merely scary one, has a huge advantage over one less gifted but, under the current save rule, that smart manager is going to use his smarts less often, because he's going to employ his closer in a fairly tightly regimented role, same as his dummy counterpart. Did I mention that I hate this rule?
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Well, yeah ...
It's like people think that the NL has more strategy because you pinch-hit for the starting pitcher. Actually everybody does the same thing in that situation, so it's not strategy....
As we all know, Danny Farquhar is not Rafael Soriano. The M's have not invested $11M per season in him. Farquhar is just a guy who has 42.1 innings in the big leagues, fewer than Yoervis Medina. He's a guy who has saved seven (7) games since Tom Wilhelmsen went to the PCL. Why would he be getting the Precious Asset Treatment?
At Tacoma, Tom Wilhelmsen is still being treated as if he were the Seattle Mariners' Closer (TM) on a rehab assignment. On Sunday, he pitched 2.0 innings in relief.
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Why is Carter Capps being lit up? That's another article. But the fact is, whatever the reason for it, Robby Thompson knew that Capps is quite hittable right now, and knows that Farquhar is kicking tail and taking names. In the 9th inning Monday, Thompson chose to give the Rangers a clear uppercut at his solar plexus, in the name of Using Danny Farquhar As His Closer.
Two variations ensue from this position.
- As sgoldleaf said: The Closer Strategy prevented Thompson (and Carl Willis) from thinking.
- The Seattle Mariners organization already is beginning to think of Danny Farquhar as the American League's next star closer.
My counseling sensei gave me an interesting definition of "gullible" a few weeks ago. "When a person says one thing and does another, and you believe what they say, that's gullibility." Ever since she dropped that on me, I've been intrigued to find cases where people's actions and words don't line up. It's fun to find situations like that. It's kind of like body language and poker tells: once you become aware of this simple idea, it's very, very easy to read people's minds.
Not that the Mariners have said much, but the way the Mariners have ACTED with respect to Danny Farquhar has been quite intriguing.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
... 80% of your bullpen decisions will suck, too.
On the season, the Seattle bullpen is among the worst in baseball. Houston's pen is probably truly worse ... but only Houston, LAA and Toronto have worse bullpen ERAs, (and Seattle still has a substantial home field pitching edge, even if not as large as it was previously).
Yes, Capps has had major gopheritis. But, if he is EVER going to be an MLB pitcher, he is going to have to remedy that problem. You have a choice of either giving up on him and sending him down (paging Colin Moran!) ... or, you can continue to give him chances to resolve his problems.
So, why not let him resolve his problems in something other than a 1-run game? Because you don't WANT a pitcher who can only pitch in games with 3-run differentials ... regardless of whether it is the 6th or 9th inning.
Since returning from the minors, Capps had pitched 5 times. EVERY use of Capps out of the pen in both July and August (prior to the August 19th HR) had been in a Seattle blowout loss. Capps has the highest K/BB of anyone in the pen other than Farquhar. Is the plan to develop Capps REALLY to simply *NEVER* pitch him in any game that is winnable?
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Hey, I get that fans want to win every game. But, the season was over a long time ago. Winning games is nice ... but the focus SHOULD BE on developing your players for 2014.
Which is going to be more beneficial to the club long term? Capps getting used to pitching in pressure situations in 2013 ... or waiting until 2014 and finding out NEXT YEAR that Capps wilts under pressure and should be ditched?
I'm not saying that's the conclusion to draw from this one outing ... but the question of which pitchers you PLAN on bringing back for 2014 is (at this point in the season), vastly more important to figure out than a victory in any single game.
Oh ... and just fyi ... that was the first HR Capps has allowed since returning from Tacoma, (no HRs in his previous 11 innings).
Because Nathan's usage seemed routine in some vague, undefinable way. The tight division race? The idea that Washington figured that the win vs. the lowly Mariners was 'inevitable' and so it was a pre-save? :- )
Couldn't define the corollary, but could tell you when I see it. And per Wedge's corollaries, I doubt the $10M closer was used when out of the division by 15 games...
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Am just talking about what MLB(TM) suits DO, not what would be best amigo. Agree with everything you say in that post, and don't disagree with anything in the original post. Keep it comin' :- )
So when 99% of Lou Piniella's 2001 bullpen was awesome, 99% of his decisions would be awesome too? But you said it better.
Great line, that first one. Is that from Bobby Cox or somebody or did you write that? :- )