I'm not seeing Taylor = Brad Miller. Taylor power has evaporated in a normal ballpark. Miller is a much stronger hitter. Taylor OBP currently higher than his SLG. Can't shake the image of a Willie Bloomquist bat.
I look through the MiLB box scores each evening, but this season I have not clicked on the Cal League scores once. If someone rakes there, it means nothing in my world. If they can't hit there, yikes! It is good to see Taylor can still hit a bit at AA unlike many of our other High Desert mirages. Taylor strikes out at a pretty darn high rate for a guy with no power, thankfully those BB and SB make up for it. Will be interesting to see where he ends up in a couple years.
Nice call on Romero, I liked him quite a bit after last year but now the shine has dulled. Never cared for Kivlehan, waaaaay too many K's at Everett. Then cut the K's but couldn't hit for power in Clinton. We'll have to find out if he can keep the K's down and hit for some power in AFL and AA next season. If yes then could be a nice piece but not counting on it.
Overall this AFL group is a bit on the dull side. We've been spoiled following so many great prospects the past couple years!
Javelina Fever commences!
The team named for the hairy desert pig-like creature will feature seven Mariner prospects, all of whom will be familar to frequent visitors to this space:
Hitters:
One of them took the slot reserved for D.J. Peterson, who was scratched due to his jaw surgery.
I guess we'll never know which.
***
Romero is hitting .282/.332/.432 in 93 games, almost all of which are at Tacoma. That's plenty nice, but .150 ISO for a corner guy with a .332 OBP is not blowing folks away.
Everyone except me fell madly in love with Romero last year, but I had some red flags, and I think I've been pretty much vindicated. He's still a good prospect, but not someone on the verge of busting out in the majors.
***
Taylor, on the other hand, is a guy I ranked higher than the consensus, and, boy, did he come through. Between High Desert and Jackson (almost even split), he's hitting .314/.408/.458.
Consider his organizational rankings:
- Hits: 1st with 159
- Doubles: 5th with 27
- Triples: 1st with 11
- HR: 24th with 8
- Steals: 2nd with 36 (but just 5 CS; leader Jamal Austin has 38 and 12)
- Walks: 1st with 80
- OBP (at least 300 US PAs): 1st at .408
- OPS (at least 300 US PAs): 4th at .865
Does it remind you of anyone? It ought to. Just in 2012, there was a shortstop who led the organization in hits, doubles and walks and was in the top 10 in steals.
Brad Miller (Talk40 #6). Maybe you've seen him lately.
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There have always been plenty of Kivle-fans, but I said I was a Kivle-skeptic.
I was never down on him. I was wait-and-see, since he had some big red flags.
So I waited. And I saw.
And now he's screaming up the chart. Gordon and others had him there already, of course.
Since July 1: .348/.416/.593
That's a giant bust out, but we've seen those at High Desert before (yes, we're looking at you, Alex Liddi and Johermyn Chavez). But I do like Kivlehan's overall numbers better than those guys. AFL will be a good test.
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Pitchers:
- Danny Hultzen (Talk40 #4)
- Brandon Maurer (Talk40 #9)
- Carson Smith (Talk40 #13)
- Dominic Leone (Talk40 #25)
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Of course, you ought to know Hultzen's story. He was off to a brilliant start (four starts, no more than 2 ER in each), then got hurt, then came back with another strong appearance (6.0 IP, 1 ER), then got hurt again.
He's just now getting back, and the plan is to build up his innings in Arizona.
***
Maurer is also familiar. He's been pitching in the MLB pen but the team wants him to go to Peoria to work as a starter again. He started the year in the Big Club rotation after a flying leap from AA.
I thought he'd struggle with that, since he had a history of getting hit harder than he "ought to," and that's been the case this year. But Arizona is good move for him, also.
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Smith and Leone!
Two guys that I was touting very highly at the start of the year, and was putting right after Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor in my pecking order.
Smith: 1.88 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | 3.2 BB/9 | 12.8 K/9 | .046 ISO-against | 14 saves
Leone: 2.21 ERA | 1.03 WHIP | 2.5 BB/9 | 9.3 K/9 | .087 ISO-against | 16 saves
Leone's ISO-against is inflated by 29 games at High Desert. At Jackson it's .055.
He also had streaks of 13.2 IP and then 17.2 IP without allowing an earned run (all of the first and most of the second in the Cal League!).
Smith throws kind of side-arm-y, despite being 6-foot-6, and is known for his "unhittable slider."
Leone, if you recall, was "just a guy" (5-foot-11, 195) who was a nondescript starter for Clemson before figuring out a cutter (starting from watching YouTube videos) and becoming a relief ace all in the space of a few months.
It'll be fun to see how those guys do.
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Also appearing in Arizona will be Byron Buxton of the Twins, who's already looking like what you'd want your Upton[s] to turn into: 18 triples, 12 HR, 53 steals, 75 walks, K% under 20%.
Comments
Of course, it wasn't long ago that Brad Miller wasn't seen as Brad Miller.
Absolutely, Taylor is unlikely to have the HR and ISO numbers he had in California. And you're right ... he can't be ranked as high as Miller because of that.
But he's shown consistent on-base skills and excellent speed, and he's considered a better fielder than Miller. Don't discount the triples. That's a good sign of basepath speed that also leads to extra bases and higher BABIP.
I disagree on the strikeout rate. He's well under 20% and I don't see that as a problem.
And for your overall assessment, you're a tough crowd! It would have been much better with D.J., but I like these seven.
Good stuff. Keep it coming, bliss.
Brad Miller slugged the heck out of the ball at every single stop. Never below .471.
Nothing against Taylor, just don't see him as a special player like Miller. Looks like single digit HR's while piling up around 120 K's in the process. Even in his red hot August hitting 336 his slug is below 400. Speedy, light-hitting SS. We need speed and guys that can score some runs. Don't see a place for him on the M's squad though besides utility.
For giggles, what is your UP scenario for Miller and Taylor?
I would not be shocked to see Miller put up a few Tulowitzki seasons. 300+ average combined with 25 HR's. Slug 500.
Tougher to think of one for Taylor. Elvis Andrus? A down Jose Reyes year?
When you look at post-PED shortstops, Tulo is in his own league. Nobody else is ISO over .180 and there's Tulo at .216.
I've said for quite awhile that Miller's upside is "Seager, except at shortstop."
That makes him potentially -- what -- healthy Stephen Drew (2008-10 version)? That looks about right, except Miller ought to have more steals.
That's a mighty valuable player. Fangraphs had Drew at 4.7 WAR in 2010.
Taylor's harder, as you say, particularly because there aren't a lot of shortstops who draw walks at a high rate.
I can see your Andrus comp, though I don't think Taylor's K% will be as low as Andrus or Reyes.
Maybe Asdrubal Cabrera's 2009 season? .308/.361/.438 and 2.9 WAR per Fangraphs. Before Cabrera had a power spike in 2011.
Don't have time to look for more comps, but that's a rough idea.
is something like Rafael Furcal: triples but no HRs, good OBP, better shortstop D than Miller. Might have a few more walks and likely more Ks than Furcal, but he's in that sort of mold of a .280/.350/.400 SS.
The bigger question: if Taylor is Furcal, can you really trade him to keep Miller at SS? I have Miller as a Carlos Guillen type (.280/.350/.440) who will move off SS as he ages. So do you like slugging or defense better? Both guys can run the bases (though Taylor takes better advantage of his wheel for stealing bases - he's the best in the system at it).
If Seager, Miller, Franklin and Taylor all hit their mark we have a surplus of 30-WAR players on that side of the infield. *laughs* If they don't, well, it's nice to have another draw at 30 WAR sitting there, but you can only hold it for so long. Might have to cash it in for the slugger we need.
But if that's the case, then Miller is going not Taylor. Miller is worth more, having shown well against the league as a rookie (and Taylor can help shore up your defense a little to boot). If you believe in Taylor, do you trade Miller as part of a package for somebody like Stanton if you can get him?
Walker + Miller + some stuff should get you in on the Stanton, shouldn't they? The rumored Pirates offer for Stanton was:
Gerrit Cole, outfielder Starling Marte, and prospects James Taillon and Stetson Allie for Stanton, Steve Cishek, and Justin Ruggiano.
What do we have to do to top that? Might be the question of the offseason.
~G
Taylor might be going to the AFL either to increase his trade chances or to make the Mariners more comfortable with trading their leadoff man and the apple of their eye, Miller in order to fix the MOTO for the next half-decade.
Unless we think Stanton is on PEDs and is gonna come back down to "only" being a 125, 130 OPS+ player for the future...
~G
wouldn't Franklin bring almost as much as Miller or has his recent slump dampened his value? I definitely would keep Miller over Franklin if possible due to intangibles alone.
I would MUCH rather have Franklin over Miller.
Franklin may be in a slump now, but I have full confidence that Franklin will make the needed adjustments soon. Plus, he has greater power, a switch hitter - sort of, and just seems like a smarter player or at least more aware of what is happening on the whole field.
Do not get me wrong, I like Miller. However, I do not think Franklin would have made half the errors that Miller has because a lot of Miller's errors come from trying to hard versus thinking through his actions... from footwork to whose running to where are the runners currently and etc...
Miller isn't going anywhere. The org looooooves him.
Spectator,
Do you know which one is assigned to the Taxi squad? Where they only get to play Wednesdays and Saturdays? Last fall it was Romero.
By-the-way, I would guess that D.J.'s replacement is Kivlehan, since they both are below AA.