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It would be interesting for Spec to run Jimenez through his Spectrometer analysis algorithm to see what that turns out. Did you do this already and I missed it, Spec?
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If you don't want to plow through this MLB(TM)-state-of-the-art analysis, here's the Ubaldo stuff run through the Juice Bullet. As you know, we live to serve.
In the article, he focuses on the comparison between Jimenez vis-a-vis Garza and Santana, and tabs Jimenez. With gusto. In THIS article we're juice-extracting the Ubaldo material for yer.
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Tony -- not Dr. D -- reasons that:
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(Premise 1) When Ubaldo allows the hitter to make contact, everything is normal. So, with him you can afford to just focus on his K:BB outcomes, and confidently project him based on K:BB.
(P2) Jimenez' K's and K trends are smile-inducing. His BB trends are also smile inducing, though only as a personal trend. In a vacuum, his BB's are a problemo.
(P3) If you look at line drives and ground balls, you see an average-solid outcome. But Jimenez got "quite unfortunate" on fly balls, sending his actual ERA skyrocketing.
(P3a)His overall "batted ball production" looks average ... but, it says there, batters actually had low "batted ball authority" on Jimenez.
(Conclusion) The above three premises give us a "clear" pecking order, with Jimenez at the top.
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Putting it even more simply: Jimenez fanned 9.6 men per game, walked 4.0, and gave up only 0.8 homers ... and got ripped off on Balls In Play. His actual ERA of 3.30 is therefore, if anything, subject to improvement.
According to Tony.
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Dr's Diagnosis
Well, not diagnosis, but a collection of diagnostic data:
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(1) It makes me smile to see Blengino talk about "batted ball authority" as routinely as Zduriencik does about power.
When McCracken came out with his K/BB and BABIP dogma ... we were always arguing ferociously that "teams get better swings off Pedro Martinez than they do off Jamie Moyer." I think we were on the right side of that one, don't you?
Tony Blengino is -- essentially -- a holistic analyst. His window into the world is a wide one.
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(2) This idea of "batted ball authority" drives current MLB(TM) internal sabermetrics. Note carefully that public sabermetrics loathed the concept with the burning passion of a thousand suns.
So, what are they telling us, now?
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(3) Dr. D could not agree more with this trend. Just give me the MPH off a pitcher's, or hitter's bat, along with his Three True Outcomes, and I'm good. You feel me?
Even fly ball / ground ball ratios ... things tend to cancel. After you adjust for MPH.
The "back leg specials" are captured within MPH data. When a hitter guesses the pitch, plants the back foot and pulls the ball in the air -- AS HE DOES, AND ALWAYS DID, INTENTIONALLY -- it sends his MPH up.
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(4) Jimenez' published (not proprietary, which you and I don't have) Ball In Play data shows he's average; Blengino infers that Jimenez is better than average. I don't know if this is true or not.
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(5) I would assume that it might be, actually that it probably is. Jimenez wheeled out a forkball last year, baby.
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(6) My biggest question would be why the article treats [Ubaldo Jimenez 2014] as one pitcher. His midseason evolution is fundamental to my own assessment, but the article does not touch on the issue at all. I mean, are Dustin Ackley's 1H/2H splits of interest to you?
If we're going to spend all this time talking about year-to-year K/BB trends -- which the article does -- why step around trends within a season? Do all plateau leaps take place in December?
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(7) Blengino also mentions "makeup" as key to the decision on a free agent contract. Further sending sabertistas screaming out into the night...
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Great article overall,
Dr D
Comments
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...do not go deep into games.
Not consistently enough to be relied upon. I don't make a franchise offer to someone like this if it's also costing me a draft pick and bumping a cheap option like Erasmo Ramirez from my rotation.
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Full article here: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/different-case-against-walker-pr...
Not anxious to give up the draft pick, but at the time was comparing that to giving up Taijuan Walker for Price.
I'm hopeful that they're holding off on Scott Baker, which was reportedly imminent, in hope that the market for Jimenez comes down to a level they like.
I got no major beef with E. Santana, either, other than he looked like very much a No. 3 starter looking for No. 2 money. Lacks the possible upside of Jimenez, but if they can get away with paying him to be average, he certainly ought to deliver average.
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one of my favorite quotes to hear about a young minor leaguer. "The ball makes a different sound off his bat". Nice to see attention paid to something that has always been extremely important from the time we were kids. There were certain friends of yours you'd back up a step for or be extra-ready to field because they hit the ball harder than the others. Now many years later we'll probably have a tab at fangraphs for it soon. Great set of articles Doc!
As Matt pointed out maybe ERam isn't too bad an option but feels like he's frozen out. Hope my gut feel on that is mistaken. Maurer and Elias could force their way into the conversation any moment. Anybody have Elias velocity? I've read anywhere from high 80's to 96 on google searches. A lefty around 92 should have our full attention! His performance last year at AA wasn't too many notches below Taijuan.
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... and see Spectator's adopt-a-player jell over the next 2-3 years. I don't think anybody rules out a Darvish-like couple of seasons, if Jimenez has grooved in his release point.
Good stuff Jim.