If Felix were to pitch Saturday, every 5th day thereafter(no offdays on that schedule) he'd be on schedule to pitch the 29th of September, the day after their last scheduled game. Oh, hey. .. Look who's scheduled to pitch Saturday.
On that schedule he would pitch in both Texas series remaining, the Oakland series at Safeco but not in Oakland and miss the 4 gamer in Anaheim as well as the season closing homestand vs the Angels. He would get a start in the Toronto series before that as well as the Indians and White Sox series' along the way. The only other team with reasonable WC probability that he'd miss is Detroit who's probably going to keep their division lead anyway. With a little tweaking he could make all the A's and Angels series if needed, but if he pitches in the 3 game series vs LAAoA at the end it'd take short rest for him to do the WC game. Hopefully things are fairly decided before that series. But if you presume that the Angels and Mariners meet in the WC game, how much nastier is Felix if they haven't seen him since this Saturday?
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11 - consecutive Felix Hernandez "Ultra Quality Starts" (7 IP, 2 ER) -- and counting
13 - MLB record, since 1914
5 - Homers given up on the season, 144 IP (this makes Felix' UQS run possible)
0.31 - HR per 9 innings, Felix, 2014
Intelligence and improved command - how is Felix achieving this 0.31 impossibility
NO - is it a simple function of groundball rate and flyball luck
YES - is it a complex function of pitch sequencing, pitchability and concentration
6.2 CTL RATIO - does Dr. D have any other "1st-level stat" that confirms the idea of Felix' concentration
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60-30 with 2.74 ERA - the stats for "King and "Kuma" since July 2, 2012 (when Iwakuma joined the rotation
Koufax and Drysdale - what other pitchers went 60-30 for lousy offenses
#1 - Iwakuma's rank in ERA, American League, since he became a starter. Let's include the weak league here:
- #1 - Kershaw, NL (1.74)
- #2 - Adam Wainright, NL (2.67)
- #3 - Iwakuma (2.74)
- #4 - Felix (2.76)
BEST - where does Krueger rank Iwakuma among MLB right hand pitchers (except Felix)
TOP 10 - where does Iwakuma go on Dr. D's sticky note, draft day, AL starting pitchers
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25-14 - the M's record against winning teams (.500+ at time of game)
26-30 - the M's record against sad sacks
PLAYING UP TO OR DOWN TO OPPONENT'S LEVEL - the reason for the above. SSI has preached season-long sermons that the M's take Weaver and Scherzer seriously, while whaling away unprofessionallly against meatballs
SENSE OF DANGER - what is this sports phenomenon called
YES, ALWAYS - Is it a plus, to have a "sense of danger"
9-to-Make-5 - the quickest way to deal with a lacking "sense of danger"
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19 - Starts in 1H by Roenis Elias (setting Mariner rookie record)
CHICKEN DINNER - what should the M's buy Elias before bullpenning him
16 ER, 14 IP - Elias' detonation in 3 consecutive starts before ASG
YES - was there a root cause of this, other than "random fluctuation" (the grind, exposure, mistake rate)
YES - would a 2nd-half Earl Weavering in the bullpen be good for the player himself
YES - do the M's have mouthwatering replacement candidates
YES - is it Beane-like to gobble up a "surprise contribution" and then dispassionately move on to the next one
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12 STRIKEOUTS vs 4 HITS - what was Brandon Maurer's ratio in 6 relief appearances since return
SHUTOUT - what will occur if the M's get 4 hits vs 12 K's in their next 9 innings
2.0 to 2.2 INNINGS - what have 4 of 6 recent outings been (no loss in MPH)
NO - are relief superstars like Daniel Bard asked to go more than 1.0 innings (here's one game log)
YES - Could Brandon Maurer do this 2.0+ inning UBER-RELIEVER thing (see MVP candidate* Shields, Scot 2002-2005)
NO - Is Maurer yet a certified Alexi Ogando
YES - do we like his chances of becoming such, very soon
.........
4.82 - what is Chris Young's lifetime xFIP (1,002 innings)
3.72 - what is Chris Young's actual lifetime ERA (1,002 innings)
ERA - what decides W's and L's, ERA or xFIP
FRINGE - was Young a bona fide All-Star in the NL in 2006-2008
7.5 to 8.2 - what was his strikeout rate then
5.1 - what is Young's K rate now
VAST - what is the difference between 8.0 strikeouts and 5.0 strikeouts
5.6 - what is Shandler's minimum K/rate for a control artist to be an impact pitcher
YES - do exceptions exist to general rules
RARELY - how often does player/ballpark synergy truly work out this well (5-3, 2.45 at Safeco; 23% !! grounder rate) (Seager, Ibanez, Branyan)
TAKE A BOW - what kind of credit does Zduriencik get here
CYWYNPWTP - should there be any hesitation on K-Pax, Taijuan, due to Chris Young's heroic effort
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2.40 - what is the M's seasonlong bullpen ERA
3.00 - what is the A's (#2 in AL)
3.72 - what is the average AL bullpen ERA
72% - what is the bullpen's strand rate (70% normal)
NO! - Is the Mariners' bullpen as good as that, a 2.40 ERA
PRETTY CLOSE - is the Mariners' bullpen as talented as that
Maurer, Leone, Wilhelmsen, Furbush behind Rodney - When would the M's pen startle enemy lineups = look as good at field level, as it does from behind a monitor
Rodney's signing - what made all this possible in March
Lloyd McClendon - what made all this possible since March
......
+2.5 - how far up are the M's to make the playoffs
YES - are some pundits advising the M's scuttle the M's 2014 season (based on contempt for Wild Card game)
ONLY PLAYING FOR A CHANCE TO PLAY ONE GAME ON THE ROAD - what mantra might be replaced by "a chance to see Felix pitch on national TV in the playoffs"
1995 - When was most fulfilling Mariners game ever played (1995 Wild Card game)
Felix OR Kuma, plus Bullpen - what would the M's need to deploy, to powerflush the Angels, in prime time on national TV
GOOD PITCHING BEATS GOOD HITTING - invented in 1889, referring to Felix
NOT VERY - how tough is it to set up the last 3-4 days to get an ace into the Wild Card game
10 TIMES in 16 YEARS - how many times have Wild Cards been in the World Series (Mets, Astros, Tigers, Giants Rockies won pennants)
5 TIMES in 16 YEARS - how many times have Wild Cards won the World Series (Red Sox, Marlins 2x, Cardinals, Angels)
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
It's like a bbq where steaks, ribs, chicken, sausages, pulled pork, crab legs, salmon, shrimp, trout and hamburgers are all being served. Where to start...And that's just the meat? Great series here.
But who's your 3rd/4th starter in the postseason? That's the question I'm having. Pre injury I'm saying Paxton immediately then scuffling for which is next. Now, I don't know.
Chris Young is my playoff #4. It's not even a question, really. Taijuan Walker is, at best, a #5 starter right now. He is very...very raw and ugly o the mound. I almost don't want to see him in the bigs right now except that our alternatives are worse.
Elias should be bullpenned very soon...like...the minute Paxton gets called up.
With Paxton coming back from injury there is still more question as to whether he will be healthy than if he had been pitching. It did mitigate concerns over his innings total.
With Young there are questions about his innings total. He has never pitched 180 innings, logged 115 2 years ago but not otherwise over 100 Since 2008. He is on pace for approximately 156 innings before the postseason. Sure, he is not a young guy where you'd be as worried and he has gentler mechanics too. There is question there though.
It is entirely possible that they will both be fine but it is prudent to have a backup plan or 2. If Walker is traded I don't really see 2 possible playoff caliber pitchers. Even Elias, assuming he would pitch well enough to work out, has more serious innings concerns if he were to continue in the rotation. With the talk of acquiring Price or similar it does make a bit more sense in that light than just saying that their pitching has been a plus so why improve it. Not trying to put words in anyone's mouth with that, it's just a comment I have heard often in general.
As to how tough, to make the WC playoff, without setting up Felix to pitch that. On an extra days rest - be in Johnny All-Starr bullpen setupe, aferaas 2 - pr 3-game lead, an Iakmuma start or waterever. Hisashi Iwakuma beats playoff teams, also.
Then you get the One Big Day when only Felix is on tv that day. The efforts to mimize this are misguided.. They make it sound like a Felix Game would be trivial, when in fact it could well be part of baseball history. And a pole-valut into an epic 1995-style history.
Somhere we need a blend between disapassonate analysis, and the joy that baseball brings. Like Tarrasch said, "chess, like music, like love, like baseball, has the power to make men happy."
Dr D recommends enjoying the race for the #5 WC spot. This summer. That's just his $0.02, of course.
...the only way we give up Walker is for Price. So...Walker will be around as an (ugly) option if other guys run out of gas unless we have Price...in which case I'm cool with having some ? at SP4 since we'll be winning just about every game by the other three. :)