I would definitely agree that it's useful to compare current "lesser" leagues to MLB leagues from earlier eras and I have been arguing since about 2004 that the way to compare major leagues from across eras is to "curve fit" those leagues so that they have matching skewness and kurtosis (stats lingo for removing the changes in separation between star players and scrubs). I don't believe that Babe Ruth was much different in ability from Barry Bonds unroided, for example, but Billy Bergen would never have had a job in today's game (which is why the comparison to other earlier leagues works for me...because I think Cuba is much like an earlier MLB era in which the bad players were much worse, but the star players were the same).
I would guess, from looking over Castillo's profile, that he is more a star than a scrub...and that he will be paid as such. But the scouts would be able to tell me more here.
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I said, in the Level 101 shtick, that the last three big-money signings from Cuba had no minors experience, yet slugged .500+ from the word Go.
Fortunately at SSI, the community will help you triangulate the truth real quick. :- )
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LR (and Bat571) sez,
Puig did have about half a year seasoning in the minors, though he probably didn't need it, which is the point you're making anyway. Just pointing that out. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/rusney-castillo-level-101-scan#s...
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LR (rather too kindly) excuses my error as not very important. In Gaston and Alphonse manner, lemme one-up him by conceding --- > actually, a taste of high-minors ball would be pretty helpful for a guy like Puig, so the observation is material and helps us draw the noose on the truth.
Dr. D doesn't know much about Cuban or Japanese or minor-league baseball -- that's not humble pie -- and somehow he glanced at Puig's b-ref.com minors card, and thought he saw only Cuban baseball. Just working too quick, too many windows open.
Not to blow sunshine up LR's skirt, but... that's a model of how to correct an author. Not the "excusing errors" part, but the part about moving the discussion forward in an authentically friendly manner. Do unto others, right? If you write an article here, simply imagine the manner in which you'd like to have your errors pointed out. No reason that should be hard to understand.
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Mojician sez,
Cubans don't disappoint. ... There is not one major bust out of all of the big money ball players.
Admittedly, the jury is still out on Martin, Arruebarrena, Geurrero, Gonzales and Iglesias, but all of those guys are brand new except Martin.
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/rusney-castillo-level-101-scan#c...
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First of all, Mojician's comment -- it's buried in the comments thread ?! -- has over 25 hyperlinks in it, which is a level of effort you'd never see in a Dr. D article. :- ) But don't miss the table he presents.
By "big money players" I was thinking of Cubans and Japanese who get offered $8M+ per season, the 2 WAR level. Puig got $42M and Abreu $68M .... Cespedes got $36M from the poverty-stricken Oakland A's, so you have to put him in that basket too. Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, obviously, were paid as if they were current ML stars.
But I didn't even realize that there are 5 recent Cubans who fall into the "sorta biggish money" category. They got about $25M each. Arruebarrena, for example, got 5 years x $5M from the Dodgers -- that's 1.0 to 1.2 WAR per year. He got a shy half year in the minors -- this season -- and just got the callup. He's hitting an "empty .313" in his first week-plus.
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My basic suggestion had been that if you see MLB teams offer Castillo $50M, $60M, then you've got a statement from those teams that Castillo is more-or-less Jacoby Ellsbury, probably instantly. After help from LR, Bat, and Mojician, I'm comfortable with that.
And it's easy enough to peg the [5 years x $3M] contracts, like Leonys Martin's deal, as "impact prospect." When you talk 5 years, $15.5M, that's something like what the #17 prospect in baseball would get if he were a AA player suddenly released into the FA market. Remember, a blue-chip prospect in the American minors is more likely to fail than succeed.
Martin, by the way, got 533 AB's in the minors and then started delivering 2.5 - 3.0 WAR per year in CF.
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The question in my mind, now, is where you project Castillo if he falls into the "gray area" -- if somebody gives him a 5/$25M type deal.
Speaking from an F-500 point of view, I would take that as a "hedge" -- that he looks like he'll probably be a Puig or Abreu, a star in the majors, but there is something here that bothers you. You're fairly confident but the % chance of impact is lower.
In this case, I would take a lower contract offer as occurring because of percentage chance of success, rather than because of upside or expected performance.
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Dr D sez,
The Cuban, Japanese, and Negro Leagues have always been fascinating. It's like inviting Martians over here to play baseball, ONLY in the sense that they're so quarantined. I fancy the following comparisons:
- NPB last 20 years = National League, 1901-19
- Cuba last 5 years = American League, 1921-1939
- Negro Leagues = National League, 1940's
Early in the 20th century in America, the stars were just as good* as they are now. The problem was, the #500 player in the league was not comparable to the #500 player today. 100 years ago, American baseball just wasn't as consistent; the burrs have been filed off it by huge money, TV and corporate competition.
But Tanaka, Iwakuma and Darvish are as good as it gets in other countries, Aaron and Mays were as good as Trout and Cabrera, and it shouldn't shock us if Jose Abreu is as good as Jose Bautista.
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Branch Rickey sez,
Add Jackie Robinson at 2B, Roy Campanella at C, and Don Newcombe at "Opening Day Starter" -- to what ever you already got, and you're liable to win 7 pennants in 12 years or something.
The M's broke a mini-color barrier with Ichiro, and they seem to relish the potential bargains in the international market. Without a doubt, it is also part of their "corporate brand" to emphasize their "inclusive" finds. They need a center fielder, don't have a top prospect on the way to CF, and you'd be surprised if they didn't bid strongly.
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DaddyO sez,
Isn't the Safeco* workout after the trade deadline?
The optimist in us says, the Mariners will do what they find 100% comfortable whatever that is, and then a Japanese / Cuban signing will be a side issue.
I mean, if they sttreeeeeeettttch their budget on some kind of Kemp or Price deal, then they drop out of the Castillo bidding pretty early, but ... if their deals are for Jon Lester and Marlon Byrd, you could see the Committee treating the Cuban signing as a side issue.
Or not,
Dr D