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Emphasis on the below Sizzlers ...

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James Paxton

In our pregame on Friday, we gave these as the keys to his short-term futures price:

• LO:  Paxton finally takes a mulligan, unable to find the strike zone, loses badly
• MID:  He throws strikes, has no pitchability, and sheer stuff produces an Ultra Quality Start
• HI:  He finally gets a whipsaw, and pitchability, going, fanning 8+ (Orcs' fan excerpts tomorrow)

Oddly, he was --- > 65% LO ... 35% HI ... with 0% MID.

He had less command than we've seen in a long time, maybe ever.  This seemed to arise from the home plate ump squeeeeeezing him the first 10-15 pitches, and then Paxton rattled.  A blizzard of 2-0 and 3-1 counts followed.  After two batters, and certainly after the 3rd inning, we took it as a given that Paxton would finally blow up his sparkling ERA.

Like Muhammad Ali playing rope-a-dope for seven rounds, Paxton absorbed the 3-1 welts under his eye and punched back with 97 MPH fastballs right down the pipe.  Along about the third inning, his curve ball became really dangerous -- the first time that's been true since April.  Voila:  a combo of LO and HI.

The result:  6 IP, 1 ER, three pitted-out undershirts, 8 strikeouts ... and Lloyd McClendon calling him "The Glue."  Paxton's the glue already?  That's a little bit like saying "Percy Harvin Or Bust."

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Do keep in mind :- ) James Paxton isn't actually the 2nd BEST rookie SP of all time.  He's undoubtedly outside the top 50, if we are talking baseball history.  

Just in Seattle, we'll give you two recent ones.  Michael Pineda was a tad better overall pitcher as a rookie (though Pineda had nowhere to go from there; he had absolutely no way to get better).  Certainly the rookie Felix was better than Paxton is.  Paxton's ERA is flavor text; you don't predict Paxton's ERA to be below 3.00 in his next 14 starts.

But Paxton is very good already, and he's not supposed to be.  His FIP and xFIP are already comparable to Jeff Samardzija's.  Paxton's early success is in reality a mere seismograph as to what is coming.

Like we sez in Mo' Dawg's thread, James Paxton's value to a franchise is obviously comparable to that of Tim Lincecum, Steven Strasburg, and Justin Verlander after 10-15 starts.  

You tell me why the Seattle blog-o-sphere soft-pedals this guy so much.  They act like if they got excited about Paxton, somebody would type HOMER in all caps at them.  :: shudder ::

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Felix

Still not back on form.  But Saturday, he did get some changeups back to knee level, with bite.  He looked sloppy, like there was play in the steering column, but was not laboring.

Don't forget that ALL starting pitchers, except Randy Johnson, frazz in and out.  Felix's frazzouts tend to be Ultra Quality Starts.

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Robinson Cano

Hit his second (high-leverage) four-bagger in as many days.  My son wandered into my 6th DVR of it, and savored the Griffey Walk down the 1B line.  "Wow!  What were you thinking when he launched the bat?"  I was wondering, where has this been.

That's not a complaint.  Cano's ability to choose a .390 OBP -- that's .440 in Fenway Dog Years -- is unique in my experience.  (Ichiro, of course, is not included in the universe of baseball experience.)  But it's time to start changin' the scoreboard.  And ride that Griffey Walk wave until it hits the beach, wouldja?

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Charlie Furbush and Danny Farquhar

These two guys absolutely cannot be chased off the strike zone.  Farquhar, in particular, pitches as if he were in giddy amusement at the events going on around in the background.

Watching these two guys is a joy.  When you know for a fact that ANY pitcher is going to give you strike one, he's fun to watch.

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Chris Taylor

Still hitting .300, and playing a dynamic shortstop.   Came off the bench, stone-cold, to line a hot grounder up the middle for the GWRBI.

Only, it didn't win the game...

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Carson Smith

We thought it was remarkable that Brandon Maurer started protecting leads, only 8-10 games in.  Carson Smith was given that role when?  Was it game #2 or game #3?  

And two innings at a time!

And he made it look great!

Dr. D does not think that Carson Smith has Brandon Maurer-type talent, but he does suspect that Smith could do a better job, starting yesterday, of closing than Fernando Rodney could.

Puzzling roster note:  Smith is reliever #9 on this club.  He would be #1 for some clubs.  We have moved past the point of having TWO bullpens.  They now are approaching THREE.

.......

In terms of trades this winter:  You could pick one of these guys -- Smith, Maurer, Wilhelmsen, Farquhar, Furbush -- and he'd be a VERY solid second player in a blockbuster megadeal.  While costing us nothing.

Hey, one time the Mariners traded an uber-prospect rookie hitter, Jose Cruz Jr., for two setup relievers even steven.   Imagine two of these bullpen guys (and a spect, or Chris Taylor, or ...) going out for a really valuable young hitter.   The M's have crazy depth from which to deal.

Stars & Scrubs, babe.

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Lloyd McClendon and the Speed Outfield

Three speed burners in the OF on Saturday:  Chavez LF, Jackson CF, James Jones RF.

It looked odd, but ...

• Chavez opened the game* with a clean base hit
• Chavez later pulled in a deeeeep blast to left-center that Ackley might well have not
• Chavez made a tremendous running catch of a 3B-line pop that was surely a hit
• Jones tripled and scored the first run (the A's gathered the ball off the wall and hustled the throw ... HOME!)
• ... and Jones singled later

How many times has McClendon pulled this stuff?

It almost worked.  But, of course, he doesn't have a lot to work with offensively.  His 9-to-make-5 shtick has been precisely what has kept the M's offense on life support.

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Fizzlers

Fernando Rodney.  Great stats, but he isn't a great pitcher.  He was worth $14M, not much for a closer, because it was getting late and the real impact moves had dried up.

Dr. D has been envisioning, all season, the M's scrambling into a playoff berth ... and things ending the way they did Saturday.  I mean, Rodney's fine, for a team that believes "being a competitive team" is a trophy.  The point is fast approaching, at which Fernando Rodney is the 6th or 7th best reliever on this roster.

Kendrys Morales.  It's going to be thoroughly enjoyable to watch Scott Boras field contract offers this offseason.  (We can afford to be a bit snarky because Kendrys is hardly going to be poor, compared to you or me.)

As you guys have emphasized in the Shout Box ... Kendrys stands for all the urgency that the Mariners' front office does NOT have.

Action Jackson.  We heard some stat tonight that he came into the game 0-for-12 with 8 strikeouts?  We didn't notice that he splashed any walls Saturday, either.

The Mariners.  They're still right in the thick of it, of course, but are -1.5 to Oakland and Detroit, are -1.0 to the Royals, and have seven (7) games with the Angels.

On the bright side, Pythag is claiming that the Mariners the 4th-best team in baseball, far better than Detroit or Kansas City or Oakland ASB.  I'll take the best team and spot you one game over 3 weeks.

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Enjoy,

Dr D