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"When faced with two equally tough choices, most people choose the 3rd choice - to not choose." - Jarod Kintz
"And when you don't know what to do, wait for your opponent to get an idea - it's sure to be wrong." - Bobby Fischer
"But a broken clock is right twice a day. One time out of ten, letting the players choose makes you look pretty smart." - Dr. D
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Word is, these days, that the Mariners' offseason plan is to reel in One Big Bat. This looks peachy keen from the Stars & Scrubs camera angle. Imagine a +100 runs differential, and add a 5-WAR (+50 runs) player on offense. Deee-lish. I'll take the hearty portion, and give it wings, garcon.
Two extra reasons for Stars & Scrubs next year, besides the eleventeen that always exist for any ballclub. These are true for the 2015 Mariners from anybody's standpoint. These reasons are true not only in Dr. D's noxious mind, but are more importantly true in the Mariners' minds. These reasons be that (1) the M's use only 3 bench players (!!) and (2) the M's young talent is piling up.
There's no sense adding two or three position-player Scrubs to this roster. You ain't going to see any free agent Chris Denorfia types this winter, that much we can assure you.
The traffic jam is ex-pecially true as it concerns the SS position. No matter how many relievers you want, and Lloyd McClendon wants very many, you still gotta have:
And preferably you should have the first two STILL IN RESERVE while you are playing the 8th inning. Knowwhutuhmean?
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Brad Miller is the only choice for backup SS, because he won't be a SS. That's obvious. Anybody could see that.
You did know that he's drawing rave reviews as a defensive outfielder? At least, he's drawing rave reviews in comparison to what any other career infielder would draw, suddenly switching to OF without ever having played a single minor-league game there. And that makes sense given his crazy legs and baseball-rat instincts. Hey, Brad Miller is the new Willie Bloomquist, give or take the massive talent part of it, and Willie was able to learn OF quite serviceably.
Don't forget that just before Opening Day last year, Peter Gammons (from Boston, now) said there was one young player that all of baseball was watching out for in 2014. This isn't a fish you throw back into the water.
You would think ... and by "you" we mean "Dr. D and therefore every Mariner fan alive," naturally ... that the Miller vs Taylor future would play out this way:
| Timeline | Result |
| April 1, 2015 | Taylor SS, playing at a 2-3 WAR clip |
| August 15, 2015 | Miller SS, having jelled into a .280/.330/.500 hitter, and Taylor slumping |
| 2016 ff |
Miller a 4-5 WAR player, Taylor a 2.5 WAR player |
| Every time point | Obvious caveats apply, but Miller is a blue-chipper |
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So the point is: everybody is on Taylor's bandwagon because he is the one who has most recently succeeded. What have you done for me lately? But Brad Miller is the MLB logo here. It will shake out.
That don't mean a 2-3 WAR shortstop like Taylor, under club control for six years, is exactly a fish you throw back, either.
The M's young talent is officially Forcing Tough Decisions now.
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It would be easy for the Sabermetric Med Student to dismiss Taylor's 2014 slash line of .290/.350/.350. After all, his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) was .398 when it's supposed to be .320 (for a shortstop like him). Hey, simple equation here. Chris Taylor is a light-hitting shortstop. Right?
But!
That's the kinda math that Dr. Gaffney got bored of, ten years ago. If you haven't noticed, me too. What say we analyze in three dimensions?
So, LrKrBoi28, it ain't as simple as adjusting BABIP back and calling it good. This kid was nothing but a prospect anyway, when he played in Safeco.
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Choice 1, Choice 2, or don't choose?
Chris Taylor has a really unusual ability to cover the whole zone, See Ball Hit Ball, get on top of it, line it all over the place. Chris Taylor takes a swing, you got no idea where the zinging line drive is going to wind up. Don't undersell that kid. He's a battler.
Brad Miller, with that huuuuge swing, figures to take longer to jell. Maybe a lot longer. But if we can get him playing RF/SS/1B/DH while developing, I'll certainly take that over Willie Bloomquist. It feels odd to have such a talented player, with such a drop-dead gorgeous swing and attitude -- who can't make the club.
And: the Taylor/Miller platoon or job fight or whatever, it worked out really great in 2014. Both of them went at it with foil on their knuckles and brotherly love after the game, as if two Hanson Brothers decided to fight just for the sheer joy of it.
Let's just hope that it isn't Willie Bloomquist or Joe Beimel that forces Miller back to AAA?
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Trade Value
It's a beautiful thing to have two young starting shortstops, but even more beautiful when you're trying to wheel and deal for proven offense. Seattle bloggers in particular are going to wayyyyy underestimate the possible return for either of these players, but remember the M's just traded Nick Franklin for Austin Jackson. The facts of that case:
The M's got a really good American League center fielder for a player much less tradeable than Chris Taylor. Tat's because it's blinkin' hard to trade for a high-upside player with 6 years of club control. Fans are hot for minor leaguers; GM's are hot for young talent that has held up well against ML pitching.
Whichever one your trade partner is hot for, Brad Miller or Chris Taylor, he would become be the KEY to a major deal.
Be Afraid,
Dr D
I ain't trading one. Odds are that you need both over a long year, or series of years. Those guys are a Felix (the other Felix) and Oscar pair that I'm keeping. But I've always said that one would learn other positions as well. I really don't care which, but don't tell me that Brad Miller wouldn't be a heck of a LF'er, "just in case" Ackley goes for a RH bat.
moe
I think both Miller and Taylor can play multiple positions and get 400+ at bats for this club in 2015. Dueling supersubs is a very good thing. Taylor can play SS half the time and spell Seager and Cano when they need a day off against a tough lefty every once in a while, Miller can play SS half the time and play some OF if we need. They render Willie Bloomquist totally irrelevant.
I totally agree that I'd absolutely rather have Miller & Taylor on the roster than Willie B. But I think there is room enough for all three and I think Willie B is a perfect fit for this bench. Right handed hitter who can play anywhere on the field and won't hurt you. Run a bench of Sucre, Jones, Miller and Bloomquist and you've got your bases covered.
El Baldo and The Pencil think he's a wimp?
Both Taylor and Miller were among the best hitting talents, at any position, recently promoted from Tacoma. If one gets traded for an OF/1B/DH bat, I'm fine with that. If not, they may turn out to be among our best bats at the MLB level also, so they just need places to play. Miller as a jack-of-all-trades player that gets playing time all over would also suit just fine, as long as he keeps hitting. Bloomie is going nowhere for the next year, assuming he recovers from his surgery. This is still the last leg of his $5.8M victory lap/farewell tour. I just wonder what incriminating photos he has on Howard to have "earned" this last hurrah.
Would anyone include Taylor in a trade for Van Slyke or Kemp?
Another suggestion I saw was to flip Elias for Kemp/Van Slyke and then sign Lester. I think I like shelling out for VMart better though.
And I don't think we can let go of our pitching depth, what with questions about Paxton and Walker's long term health prospects. I would rather just sign VMart and trade for a lesser outfielder (lesser than Kemp I mean) with upside.
WWFD - What will Friedman Do? The question of the day.
If I were the Ms, given the Dodger's needs, I'd try offering:
Taylor - for Van Slyke straight up
-OR-
Taylor, Medina, and Furbush for Puig
-OR-
Taylor, Medina, Furbush, and Guerrero for Kemp with a Ms salary of
I would much rather trade Marte or / and Noriega with young bullpen arm instead of Taylor.
That's quite a visual Moe. In a lot of ways, trading Ackley and installing Miller LF would rewind the LF clock by 3 years and give us another go at it. Would be interesting.
It seems a shame to waste Miller's legit SS glove, but then again, it's a shame to waste Ackley's legit 2B glove.
I wonder whether they would find a way to do something about Bloomquist's $3M.
They're as aware, as anybody, that the "net value" of a player like Miller can be $50M+. Just as a conversational question (as opposed to fact-based analysis) I'm honestly mystified as to whether they'd consider a roster without Bloomquist.
Let's assume your 4-man bench, and the Big Bat replacing Kendrys. Who would you predict as the 7 relievers? Carson Smith made those questions kinda dicey - the more so since McClendon seems closed to the idea of 1 lefty.
That would be my preferred roster as well. With one LHP reliever.
That's what it sez here.
A "doghouse" is one thing. A blacklist is another.
And speaking in general terms, the winter usually empties doghouses, unless you're Jesus Montero.
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That said, I think McClendon's "two bats" thing means (1) sign a VMart and then (2) flip Saunders for somebody equal to Saunders.
The Dodgers' shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, is just hitting the FA market, right?
Captain Obvious Says:
Of course they'd prefer to buy free agents, like Victor Martinez
Of course you need a cascade of options, moving on as each preferred option fails
$$, other players, etc would have to be fine-tuned in a deal based around Taylor and Kemp / Van Slyke
But right now I'm figuring that Victor Martinez is going back to Detroit, and assuming Stanton isn't going anywhere, your Dodgers call is pretty high up the list.
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The Dodgers do have a hyped SS prospect, Corey Seager :- ) who was in AA. But we all know the Mariners would put a guy like Taylor, ML audition passed, in front of two nice minor leaguers. Teams work out options if and when they wind up with multiple shortstops.
They've said several times they would rather use the FA market, and keep their young players. (Among other things, Z is *proud* of his young talent.)
At the moment I'm pretty pessimistic that VMart will be available. Hopefully one of youse guys can counter me.
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It might even be more likely that the M's pay James Shields or Jon Lester than that they give up quality talent for a bat. Spot on.
Because this is the M's.
I don't mind flipping Elias for Lester, because ... to me there's a good chance (40%) that Elias is going down shortly with a major injury. And Danny Hultzen appears to be locked-and-loaded.
Felix, Iwakuma, Lester, Paxton, Walker, and the M's org behind that, I'm giddy ...
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I wonder how much of Kemp's salary comes with him, right now, after his resurgence. Depends on prospects given out, of course.
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But you've also got Van Slyke, if the Dodgers have suddenly warmed back up to the Kemp melodrama.
Can I ax a coupla followup questions?
1. What do you see as Van Slyke's slash line, going forward?
2. I love love love the idea of packaging 2 RP's in a mega-deal. You think anybody will accept Medina in view of the superior talent around him? Hope so.
3. Your trilemma implies that you'd much rather have Kemp $14M than Puig at $5M? That part I'm not sure I get ...
Each among the top 6 in BABIP last year (150+ AB).
Run them out there and see who falls the farthest the fastest.
A task which is now 100.00% moot. Particularly because McClendon won. You don't need to seed "org guys" onto the roster at this point.
Without any doubt, WB was there (in part) to accelerate "clubhouse buy-in." Which is critical. That task has been well accomplished.
These days that "curtain" is more important than it used to be. The curtain being the barrier between having had ML success, and not. (Club-controlled starting players are worth millions upon millions now.)
It's first principles that you'd rather give them players who are standing behind the barrier.
Assuming no trades, it's obvious that Felix/Kuma/Paxton/Walker/Elias is the rotation. Of course, that's not nearly enough.
My option #1: Sign Carlos Villanueva for two years. Perfect long man/sixth starter, and should be affordable.
Option #2: Williamson starts the season in Tacoma, as a starter. He comes back in whatever role we need him.
Option #3: Hultzen also starts in Tacoma, and if he's healthy, he's the midseason boost that Paxton was this year.
Option #4: Jack goes bargain hunting the middle of spring training.
Save the Lester/Shields dollars to help pay for Kemp.
My trilemma is actually based not on what the Ms might be best with, but what the Dodgers might be willing to do.
Another blog has a good article on Puig and coming to the Ms, noting the influence Cano and Felix (and Rodney) could have on focusing him. In many ways, that would be the ideal outcome, with Puig maturing into a superstar away from the scrutiny of the LA press. (tjm may have more useful things to add about this). But he's very popular, while Kemp has worn a few welcomes. I consider the Puig trade the least likely. But the tri-offer might get the Dodgers thinking pointed in a way the Ms will benefit from.
I think Kemp is the ideal "ready-made" solution, but I doubt if the Ms pick up all the remaining $$$. Guerrero gives the Dodgers the distinct possibility of a Guerrero - Pederson - Puig OF in a year or so, which might make the Dodgers assessment of the trade package worth sending some money with Kemp. For 2015, that's the best boost for the Ms, and I think Kemp would settle in as one of the big stars in Seattle and find it quite nice. But it would certainly crowd out Saunders.
With Ramirez either leaving, or shifting to 3B fairly soon, the Dodgers need a SS, one ready to start Opening Day 2015. Arizona has a couple that close and the Ms might have 3 that close, although Marte is more of a gamble. One of us will make a deal with the Dodgers; but Arizona may not want to deal in-division. Corey Seager, by the reports I've read, is either going to be a decent SS, or an outstanding 3B. If the Dodgers go get a true SS like Taylor now, they have a very good chance of having a stellar left side in 2016. And because Corey Seager and Miller are very much alike, and Taylor is definitely the better glove, I think that Miller may be of less interest to the Dodgers.
I think Medina would do quite well as a 7th inning guy (i.e., exactly what LAD lacks) without the maintenance of some of their current RPs. And Furbush has enough of a proven record that the pair might be very interesting. But I would offer the pair, with the idea that Leone or Maurer instead of Medina would mean Luetge instead as the 2nd RP. As a pair, I think they would look pretty good to a team with BP issues. And then the Ms re-sign Beimel and make a run at Miller.
If Friedman decided to defer the personalities issues and simply swap in Joc Pederson for SVS and grab Taylor on a 1-for-1, it might be the *safe* move for him; having Van Slyke come here as a secondary add would be just dandy with me. A .280/.360/.500/.860 line from VS in 300-400 PAs would be a regression from 2014's stats, but would certainly look good on the Ms. Even the Steamer prediction of .239/.324/.404/.728 would be decent, if his BABIP fell to .295. But I suspect will fall more to the .320 range, which would then give a .260/.340/.470/.810-ish line that would still be a definite boost to the Ms. Rotating between RF, backing up Ackley in LF, and backing up LoMo at 1B, the Ms could certainly get him more PAs than he's gotten in LA. He would also be the ideal partner if Lloyd would let Saunders out of the doghouse.
Getting VMart and Van Slyke, and keeping Saunders, might be my favored outcome from an emotional standpoint. I really like the Condor. And it would certainly be the cheapest. But as others have pointed out, JackZ really needs to turn some of the talent excess in the IF and BP into other solutions for needs, rather than letting the moment go by when value might be had. And I'm fairly certain the "food-fight" has not made this outcome more likely. At the same time, Marte's emergence does make losing Taylor a bit less painful.
On the other hand, the news from Detroit on Cabrera is VERY interesting. I'd say the chances of the Ms landing VMart just went up considerably. If Cabrera is hobbled enough after surgery to not be able to play the field, I'd bet the Tigers start looking at signing Headley for 3B, moving Castellanos to 1B (where he might be a better fit), and letting Cabrera DH, leaving VMart less of a spot. That, combined with the Ms general suitability amongst all possible contending clubs that 13 pointed out in the LL round-table, would mean the real competition for him - staying with the Tigers - just got less aggressive. Here's hoping.
Not because I don't like him, but because I do, and because other teams probably do as well. Though this could very well be a Fister-level mistake. But it depends what you get back. Van Slyke might work. Wil Myers would work. Are either of those players available though? If they were available, I would be having those conversations now and then getting ready to sign Jason Hammel to take the #3 slot in my rotation.
I'm not super-duper interested in giving up Taylor or Miller. I look at those guys and I see lots of upside and lots of years of club control. I would play Miller in the outfield and occasionally at short to keep him fresh there and give Taylor a break.
While no one knows what Friedman will do or allow to be traded, the scuttlebutt is that the Dodgers want to get YOUNGER and they want to get under $200M for a team payroll. Right now, the Dodgers are about $200M allocated for 2015, and they have a few holes that need to be filled. Thus, to help reach these goals, any team could trade for Puig. In return, the Dodgers want a couple of MLB ready players at positions the Dodgers need like SS/3B, SP. and OF... AND that team MUST take on Crawford or Ethier - both of whom are on 3 year contracts for roughly $60M total... AND one other salary like Haren, League or Wilson which all make roughly $10M for 2015. Lastly, the Dodgers need to clear at least 3 spots on the 40 man before the Rule 5 draft, so non rostered players are also very attractive to them.
If the Mariners traded Taylor, Saunders or Ackley, Guerrero, and maybe Hicks... The Mariners could get back Puig, Crawford, Haren, Van Slyke, and a couple of the young fireballing pitchers that the Dodgers have either on the 40 man or ones that need to be put on the roster... names like Zach Lee, Chris Reed, Onelki Garcia, Yimi Garcia, Pedro Baez, or Jose Dominguez.
Yes that would be too much salary for the Mariners to take on, but maybe then Jack could make other trades... but at least we would have some offense and more trading chips.
Which is why my first question about Martinez was whether he is worth over $20M a year to the team. The parallel may not turn out the same but at this point I don't see a large difference. If the Mariners offer 30+% more again it is not hard to see him taking it. If there is only 2 bidders it's mainly a question of who stops raising their hand first. We know both teams probably desperately want him, beyond that seems like guesswork to me.
After the Cruz thing I am not listening to claims that the Ms are so undesirable anymore. Upton was easily explainable as it was known he wanted to join his brother in Atlanta. Between being mentioned daily in national MLB conversations until the final day, showing numbers on the All-Star team and that THE OPPOSITE of how we thought the Cruz situation went is how it actually did I'm just not as worried that they're an undesirable destination. There's still reasons that people will prefer other teams, they just don't seem as pronounced or numerous as previous offseasons.
Taylor and Miller I'd rather have both as well. If Taylor is being overvalued as some have speculated and he can lead a package for the right bat, while Miller can't, I could see moves that would make sense. There's again some depth up the middle behind them, even if Marte is further away than Taylor was last year and Tyler Smith has a ways to go. Ex-Ranked prospect Noriega still has a glove and could be liveable as a short term black hole in the lineup if the need arose. He's already been playing around the infield and is RH as well, question is if he can hit in MLB.
Lots of great ideas, I'd be happy with that offseason.
In the Kemp scenario you note it would push Saunders out. My thinking is if $14M goes to Kemp, the RH #4 you otherwise might pay Martinez to be, you may have priced yourself out of Martinez while lessening the need for him. In that case having Saunders and Kemp share DH/RF seems ideal to me. For that matter Saunders wRC+ this year only trailed Ortiz, Cruz, Martinez, Encarnacion and Lind among DH with 300+ AB. Saunders was mostly in the field though. . . Maybe the conditioning comments are related to thoughts of keeping him off the field more, as primary DH even. I'm stretching, yeah. But additions of a bat that result in removing a player that's been among your best few bats on the team for years, even one of only a few decent+ bats a couple of those years doesn't seem ideal. He's been hitting here at the safe, no question of transitioning to the park. If we're robbing Peter here, Paul better get paid $1.50 on the dollar.
They could go with 8, and send Jones to AAA to get some actual at-bats. But I think his value as a high leverage pinch-runner may be too difficult to pass up.
My seven would be Rodney, Farquhar, Beimel, Furbush, Smith, Leone, Maurer. I'd start Wilhelmsen in AAA. No literally, start him, as a starter.
I'd also have my ears open all winter, listening to any and all offers on Medina, Leutge, and any of the above. If you can flip one or two for a stud prospect? As filler to a RF upgrade? As plan C if we swing and miss on V-Mart and whatever Plan B looks like... do it.
- Ben.
Another option to run an 8 man bullpen - including Wilhelmsen (since it seems that he may be key as the bridge between starter and pen) - is to utilize off days and the Rainiers to only keep four starers on the team at a time. Elias, Paxton, and Walker will have option years available, so, given the 'can't be recalled for 10-days' bit, you need 6 good starters to make it work. If Hultzen shows something, or Anthony Fernandez, or veteran starter scrap heap we eventually sign or re-sign (Chris Taylor), we can essentially have our 5th starter always ready to go 30 miles to the south. The "I-5th" Starter.
- Ben.
T-Rain's take on what the Dodger want/need mirrors my own except that I think they view Puig's contract as a bargain, especially compared to Crawford-Ethier-Kemp. I also think getting Van Slyke would be tough for the same reason. They really want to shed salary and trading your puppies is not the way to do it. Crawford actually had a good half-year, but I think he's their preferred trading chip over Kemp, who had a very good second half and is the only real power threat among the three. That assumes nobody wants Ethier, of course. They might have to give him away. However it happens, I'd expect both Crawford and Ethier to be gone.
Not sure they think they need a SS. Dee Gordon was moved to 2B beause they had Hanley. With him gone, I see no reason why they can't move Gordon back. And they think Seager will end up at 3B. They have another year of Uribe so that makes Seager's debut likely in 2016. They have two young Cuban middle infielders, also, so I don't see them as being desperate for middle infield help. Ironically, they could be a very young team in a couple years and Friedman will look like a genius (again).
What they obviously do need is a new bullpen which, of course, the M's have in spades. Maybe they'd pay half of Crawford's salary to get some of it, but do we really want him? I don't. I think their price for Kemp is going to be A LOT higher, in that they aren't going to pay as much of his salary. Maybe you guys are right and if the M's made the talent haul so rich, they'd have to go for it. I don't know. Friedman obviously has never been on the other end of a deal like that.
I think people greatly underestimate Bloomquist's value. I see him as the ultimate negative-WAR hedge bet. While Willie's performance may be the definition of replacement level, his positional versatility, and his track record of proven performance, means that one bench spot can hedge all of your positional players and help eliminate negative war contributions.
... in a vacuum, Bloomquist stoplosses a whole handful of positions by himself. Agreed.
There's some question whether the M's network of kids, as a spiderweb of sorts, is now a reliable stoploss in itself.
Makes 99 kinds of sense for them -- my question is which team will go for that? Perhaps LA is a long, long way from getting anything major done. Or not.
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Appreciate the more-nuanced look at the Dodgers' SS situation TJM. I wish we had one guy like this in every MLB city ... like we used to have Justynius in Baltimore ... well, we have Gordon in Colorado, Matt in Joisey ...
There aren't a lot of teams that could fill the Dodger's needs. The M's could. The antidote to the poison pill is prospect depth, which the M's have. They almost have to trade some of that depth. Assuming his medicals are ok, I'd back up a truck to get Kemp.
From the reports, Taylor and Miller may be the second and third best SS in the org regardless. Marte may eclipse them both soon, although a full season at AAA (age 21) probably wouldn't hurt him.
Although I don't think Martel's bat is going to be anything close to Miller's upside. If he could be similar to KC's shortstop, he'd be a very valuable piece.
Even though we seem to have a line of shortstops coming, I'd still like to add Moncada to the end of the list. Get ur done Jack!!
You still have Justynius in Baltimore
... or how bout your take on the possibility of Victor Martinez leaving Detroit?
Good to hear from yer,
Jeff
I prefer Miller as our SS, but I have no problem with him acquiring an OF glove and getting it sweaty a bit. .248-.311-.413 vR in '13 and '14. That plays pretty well at SS.
There is a precedent for the Mariner's situation on a championship team in the early and mid 90's Atlanta Braves who had Jeff Blauser, who had a good bat, but was Jeter-esque in the field, and Rafael Belliard, who was a great glove, but made Brendan Ryan look like a slugger (career OPS of .530 !).
Eventually Blauser played more and more until he was the main guy. Then the Braves got Walt Weiss. But a number of pennants and their series win in 1995 were with Blauser as the main SS. and Belliard used as a defensive replacement at SS, allowing Blauser to also backup 2B and 3B.
I would say that Miller is a CONSIDERABLY better SS than Blauser or Jeter, who between them had more championship seasons as shortstops than anyone since Rizzuto and Reese. And Taylor, even after his BABIP comes down to earth, promises to be closer to Weiss (.677 OPS career) as a hitter than to Belliard.
But like the early-90s Braves, the Ms have the pitching, but need the offense, so my money is on the Miller-starter, Taylor-defensive-replacement/pinch-runner alignment being the norm. And like the Braves and Blauser, Miller might be the guy to cover for Cano and Seager while remaining the #1 SS. But I expect Miller to get >100 starts at SS in 2015 to get his bat, energy, and leadership in the lineup.
No comment on the Royals. Too soon, lol.
Martinez and Detroit seem to be very high on each other, but not sure where he fits in with their other priorities. Scherzer about to become a free agent and possibly gone. Price a free agent after next season. Their bullpen completely failed them in the playoffs. They seem to be becoming increasingly aware that defense can't be ignored. Someone made a post on here a few weeks ago comparing the M's to the 2000 team. Detroit reminds me of the '97 Mariners, perhaps my favorite team of my lifetime - superstars and scrubs, but with the same perfect flaws.
Haven't followed the M's too closely, but I question if Martinez is even the type of hitter the team really needs. I think he's one of the best (and perhaps most underrated) contact hitters in the American League. Safeco probably eats his HR power alive, particularly as he gets older. No position flexibility, obviously no speed. Not saying he'd necessarily be a bad fit (especially considering the lineup balance), just doesn't strike me as the right guy to go all in. Maybe he becomes the default choice because of lack of options, but I think the ideal would be a trade for a power-hitting corner OF preferably a few years younger than Martinez.
If not a bat like that then maybe just go all out on pitching and get Lester. With the new TV deal revenues, we're moving away from the environment where you can decide you want a premiere FA and just outbid everyone else. There are more teams ready to spend big money than there are elite free agents deserving it. The team needs to distinguish itself outside of money to snag a big FA. (I think Cano is a closet Griffey worshipper and JZ knew how to reel in Jay-Z) The M's have a path to Lester with the Tacoma connection. Maybe that's huge to him, maybe it's meaningless. Regardless, that's a starting point they don't have with other elite free agents and you know they can sell Safeco to any starting pitcher. I'd be a lot more comfortable with them committing $25-30 mil per year on Lester than $15-20 mil on Martinez. And if Paxton and Walker happen to jell next year, a rotation with Lester could be one of the best of this generation.