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...maybe they were talking to the Braves and the Braves were interested in Zunino.
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The Shout Box analysis has taken things to another level. There are advantages and disadvantages to (1) making the attempt to exceed such a level, while (2) being blitzed out of your mind by (entirely legal) prescription medication. The main advantage: you don't feel the blows when they land back on you.
So, do your worst. Rules limit the foreign objects to 1/2 inch pipe and down. For the very simple reason that we can't detect blows landed with such light artillery.
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Q. What in the name of all that is Dan Wilson, Jamie Moyer and Willie Bloomquist are the Mariners doing bidding 5/$80M for Russell Martin to catch.
A. It's called being shrill. Next question.
Hey, at least we know the M's have money to throw away. Here's for throwing, and from the top balcony.
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Q. SSI is in, or out, on Justin Upton? One word.
A. In.
Remember last winter, when Nelson Cruz was somethin' brown and unpleasant you'd stepped in on the way down the block to Placido Polanco? And SSI was bleating something about taking a second look?
That second look was based on a Shandler concept called "Power Index." Cruz' was 160+, and that positioned him for a big season, up to and including 40+ homers.
This time around, Justin Upton is the one with "Power Index" to burn, and several 40-homer seasons lurking.
.........
Upton's PX splits tend to run month-by-month, like 220+ one month, down two months, here comes another 200+ ... probably he has more enticing UP side than anybody around. If he doesn't improve, he's 3-4 WAR with a distinct animosity towards left hand pitchers. (Common for him to slug .600 vs LHP). So, yeah, he'd be a primary target for SSI.
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Q. To the extent of coughing up Taijuan?
A. If and only if there's an extension locked and loaded. Have Matt define IFF for yer. And don' forget that 4 Cy Youngs are not the only possible future permutation for Taijuan.
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Q. Is Dr. D an Evan Gattis fan?
A. In. As a bit player. Like Montero was gonner be.
More PX absurdity and a re-draw at the Montero deck. I think we established, at the point of Russell Martin, the way the M's feel about right hand RX. This from the org that stomped in, blew open the double doors to the building, and shrieked, "Why is this club not built for the park?" ... Now here we are, bidding on Russell Martin when Mike Zunino is our 3rd-best player. But yeah.
Cano hits well in this park; Seager does fine; it's not like we are four Vlad Guerreros away from addressing stadium fit. But :: shrug :: Evan Gattis will probably jell as a Jarrod Saltalamacchia-type hitter, but there is some shot at the Bautista scenario.
Gattis' #8 most-comparable player on B-Ref.com: Brad Miller :- ) Which, if you could deal one of our SS's for Gattis, it would be strength-for-weakness on both sides.
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Q. How about Drayer's idea of Taijuan and Taylor for Upton and Gattis?
A. If you liked your chances to extend Upton at a reasonable deal, it's a chance to turn a collection of talent into a ballclub.
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Q. In general terms, you'd rather cough up D.J. or Taijuan?
A. I don't understand that ongoing conversation. Scouts can already tell that D.J. is going to be Alex Gordon? Dr. D can't.
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Q. How about Bat's proposal of Ackley, Saunders, DJ and Erasmo for Upton, Gattis, and goodies?
A. Now we're cookin' with peanut oil. If there were one Q we could ax a GM, it would be this one. Cain't you trade three good prospects instead of one Taijuan? Can't you do 5-, 6-, 7- for one and play real Stars & Scrubs? Clears out your 40-man issues, too.
You got a team full of 25-year-olds, a vault bursting cash, and a target-rich environment. Good time to be a Hot Stover.
So sue us,
Dr D
Comments
2
As I said in the shouts, I would rather trade DJ than Walker. Not because I think Walker is a surefire successor to the King, but because what I currently have in the minors is a lot of right-handed 1B/OF types, and what I DON'T have, are a lot of synonyms for Walker.
I already posted my thoughts on DJ as a Cuddyer/Tino type. I would love to have one of those manning first for basically free. Nothing wrong with that at all - but Walker's impact ceiling is higher, IMO. And while Paxton is Baby Kershaw, pitchers also get hurt. Gotta have a backup plan. We talk all the time about 4-to-make-2 draws at position players, but for the playoffs you're looking for a couple of monster horses and a couple-three unhittable relievers, and you should be able to make a run.
I'd like to keep our draws at monster arms if possible while building the offense, and at this point it should be feasible to do so. We'll see what Atlanta thinks, I guess. DJ would instantly be their #1 prospect, IMO, so it's not like we're passing off our dregs to em.
I don't see the extension for Upton happening, and without an extension I dunno that it should even cost DJ to get Justin (except that prospect value is way down the last year or two). 1 year of Heyward cost Elias + Brazis, basically (as Matt stated in the shouts). Upton commands THAT much more value? I dunno.
But we should have enough good pieces that we don't HAVE to move a Paxton or Walker for anything less than the ransom they should deserve. Fingers crossed, right?
3
No idea about Martin. None. Unless Matt is right about outside interest in Zunino. But then you trade a free guy for $80M of commitment and probably get an expensive guy in return for Zunnie.
Don't know.
I'm in on Upton if he's affordable. He's not affordable if Walker is the price. Not for one year of Upton. No way. No how.
Gattis in LF or DH'ing is just fine by me. Way fine. Finer than Carolina in the morning! For DJ straight up? Wooooooooo, now things are tight.
DJ may only be 40 games from the Majors. Such things are possible. Heck, he could be here in less. Gattis got a total of 22 AAA PA's in '13.
Assuming DJ is 40 games from being a 100 OPS guy, right out of the box, why would you do that? Assuming, of course. and that's not a stupid assumption.
Ditto Kivlehan.
By June 15th they could both be 100 OPS guys, right out of the Tacoma box, were we to give them a go.
But I would give up a ton of other young bats/arms AND Ackley for him.
4
the idea of a quantity > quality package for J. Upton. It makes sense. The names are even fungible if you're getting both Upton and Gattis back. Gattis' spray charts make me want to run screaming into the night when envisioning him hitting half his games in Safeco, though even I have to admit that his plus power is legitimate.
But eight extra base hits, TOTAL, to the opposite field in two years? Gattis' WRC+ on balls in play to RF in his MLB career has been 73, with last year's 56 being a truly cringe-worthy result. Compare that to his pull field WRC+ of 239 for his career and you've got a classic, dead pull hitter moving to what is likely still the worst park for a player of that profile to hit in. I'm not saying he isn't a valuable piece, but him being a slightly better than average hitter in Safeco, in full-time duty and accounting for the league switch, is probably about the max of what I'd expect without a big step forward. He's 28 years old, so it's not impossible for him to take that step, but I wouldn't be banking on it.
Compare this with Upton (who is fast becoming my #1 target of the offseason) whose spray charts show a hitter who looks to launch the hard stuff to RCF while reacting to -- and yanking the stuffing out of -- pitches on the inner half (sound like anyone we know and love?). If you look at his charts, note just how little action he gives the LCF gap; also note how few infield flies he generates to the pull side (meaning he is almost never 'out in front' of the pitch, since the only way to sky a pitch to the pull-side on the infield is by getting pull-happy). This, ladies and gentlemen, is what a right-handed Safeco killer looks like. His career WRC+ to the balls in play to the opposite field is 116, with a 126 mark in 2014.
I'm not comparing Upton and Gattis as apples and apples, but their hitting profiles are wildly different and I think some of us are missing perspective on just what each one represents. One is a one-tool hitter whose power just might allow him to transcend the park, and who still has some growth in his bat before he is declared Mark Trumbo 2.0, but he also carries a definite crash-and-burn-in-Safeco possibility (to my eye, anyway). Worst case, he's a valuable rotational guy and killer platoon partner. Best case, he's who...Richie Sexson? I'd bet short on that one, but that's just me.
But the other guy is a lockdown, MOTO basher who truly does not care where he plays, or where the pitches are thrown. Justin Upton, more than any other hitter I've looked at this year, seems to have been made for Safeco field. Even Matt Kemp's straight-up-the-middle power game would suffer measurably from Safeco's LCF gap, but I don't see it happening with Upton. He's also annually among the longest average HR distance in the majors, ranking 12th last year I believe while in the top ten the prior two years.
There's probably an argument somewhere for valuing Gattis and his extra club control years more than you value Upton and his one year, but if they're both on the table for anything remotely resembling a similar price, I take Upton and start sweet talking him about an extension ASAP. If I whiff on the extension, I still get a ~1st round pick the following year for my troubles - and, oh yeah, I trot out one of the most fearsome 3-4-5 punches in the big leagues for a year. That might count for something...not sure ;-)
If I'm giving up Walker I want both of them coming back, and I would work really, really hard for a negotiation window as part of the deal...but I'd probably do it without one, even though it would sting. We won't likely get another chance at a prime years, right-handed, MOTO bat that fits the park and roster so well. I don't want to cobble together a Yoenis Cespedes+Mike Morse offseason and then get in a foot race for Upton next year against the Yankees. I'm fine with paying the man $20mil for five or six years, since this looks like the M's chance at a run and he's going to be worth it to us.
5
Based on how this trade market is setting up, and the over spending on the free agents so far... it is time for a change.
Sign two of the following: Rios, Hunter, Aoki, or even Morse (if you can talk him into it) or Morales. Get one for a one year deal, and the second on a two year deal... and let's watch the kids develop another year.
Make the big splash a pitcher or my favorite Cuban - Yoan Moncada. Yes I know he will not play in the MLB until 2016, but he is the best bet for long term success that is left on the market.
6
Tacoma,
Interesting. I was about to re-post (after thinking about my post above while working out) that we may have enough young RH bats in house, really.
Say you could get Upton for Ackley and Wilson and Marte....or some such.
It is better than a 50% bet that ONE of Romero/Kivlehan/Deej would be in the area of 105 OPS.
And it's way better than that that one of Miller/Taylor is a 95-100-ish SS. Heck, it's better than 50/50 that BOTH of them are.
If Upton is Upton and Cano is Cano (Ditto Seager and Saunders and LoMo, etc) you would have a pretty decent team right there....and not be doomed with long term money. Buy a 6th arm and be ready. You could always move in July if you weren't getting it done with the OF youngsters above.
This would be classic Stars and Scrubs stuff and Doc would be in Hog Heaven if it worked! And it might.
I think I would really like this direction. A lot.
Jones/Choi/Blash would all be pulls at the 100 OPS DH/COF deck, as well.
BTW, I wasn't kidding above about Miller in CF some if Taylor is Aybar, as suggested. Dale Murphy played one game in the OF as a 20 year old in AAA. That was it for his professional OF experience until Atlanta moved him to CF, fulltime (125 starts) in 1980. In the bigs he had started 75 games at C and 193 at 1B before that move. Starting two years later he won 5 GG's in CF. Murph was 6'4, 210 and far less nimble than Miller. jackson may move on after this year (he'll get expensive). Miller in CF? Wouldn't John Fogerty be proud?
7
here's my proposal: Taijuan Walker for Jorge Soler.
That is all.
8
My post was a bit off the cuff, and really a reaction to your and G-Man's posts.
Between your two posts, you got me thinking. Looking at the names being thrown around - from Saunders to Zunino, Ackley to Walker, DJ to Austin Jackson... Despite Jack's efforts, the Mariner scouts / coaches / braintrust really do not seem to know who they can trade yet. Either they are all too good to trade, or they have no idea which one is going to flourish. Yes, some of that is baseball and rookies, BUT EVERYONE KNEW Walker and Paxton were going to be a stars 3+ years ago. I mean STARS, not just roster filler. Yet no one knows who will stand out between DJ & Kivlehan, Miller & Taylor, Saunders & Ackley. That is mind boggling isn't it?
Both you guys are correct that the Mariners should not, and really can not afford to trade Walker, Paxton, and possibly even Elias. After those guys, there really is no one that has even a 10% of being a number 2 quality starter. After the disastrous seasons by Gohara & Pike, multiple injuries to others and the reports of just mediocre stuff from Sanchez, Missaki and Diaz... just ouch. Yes, several COULD bounce back, but they are all long shots.
However, on the position side, there are massive piles of spaghetti at most positions... and yet we really have no idea on which ones we should keep. Thus, why not buy another year. As many are reporting, this current Mariner team should above average, and should be very competitive well into the summer. Buy a couple veterans to help the current kids grow, shore up the rotation, spend big on Andrew Miller, and why not go get the most exciting young player available - Yoan Moncada.
Just my two cents...