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Stubs
stub, n.: the truncated remnant of a Pencil, cigarette, or similarly-shaped object. The predictable sort of mid-cost Civic. Mike Hargrove wore through his entire pencil writing Jose Vidro's name onto his lineup card. Finally his pencil, and his sanity, wore out and he went home.
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Stars & Scrubs isn't an absolute. Every team has a few mid-cost Civics carrying the org spears. But Melky Cabrera in right field for 5 years at $16-18M? You've got DH ossified, for 4 years, and the clock hasn't started on those 4 years yet. You've got 3B ossified for 7 years. Now you're going to ossify RF for 5 years.
What happens when D.J. Peterson, or Patrick Kivlehan, or Brad Miller, turn out to be the White Whale? (Benihana's instant classic re: 'net rats and our love for club-controlled 5-WAR players.) You see what Dr. D does not like about Civics. The ideal is to funnel 99% of your money into the biggest supertankers you can find, in about 5 roster slots, and to have a Zdurienckian farm system wasp's nest that has the wasps stinging each other.
Cabrera is the opposite of this.
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Scars
scar, n. The warts and tumors that prevent an otherwise-appealing player from generating any real enthusiasm. The unpredictable sort of mid-cost Civic. Mike Morse can hit a mortal ton, but his injuries, footspeed, and iron glove prevent you from getting any real use out of him.
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Melky had a benign tumor on his spine that probably caused his down year in 2013, so we shouldn't kid. But he's got that, and he's got the fact that he spent eighty years as a mediocre player before the PED's. And he's got the PED's. And he's got the fact that people who watch him play go "Huh? This guy get 5 years?"
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The Melk-Man and the Prime Directive
So Melky isn't Dr. D's kind of player. Especially with the D.J., Kivvy, Logo, et al. back pressure. That said, I actually like Melky's game a lot. And it would balance the current M's offense like salt balances pepper. Or like Pepper balances Tony Stark.
The Mariners could definitely use a reliable hitter up at the top of the lineup, allowing the kids to take 'em on in the third inning. We've also heard that they could use a righty, but that's just a rumor.
You flick through the almanacs looking for comps and ... there aren't really many. The .300 hitters do that because:
Melky, though, is neither of those things. He just a good old-fashioned .300 hitter, like Ken Griffey Jr's daddy was. He adds in 35 doubles and 15 homers with his forty-odd walks.
He's got really great bat control - he can drag the bat through the zone on a curve, like Robinson Cano, and he can adjust to pitches in-flight, like Ichiro. He throws the ball really well; his upper body is powerful and the slugging percentage isn't soft. He's not an illusion.
You could compare him to:
Morales is also a reliable, predictable, "hard" out who bats switch. Melky has a little less power and a little more AVG, but they have about the same 120 OPS+. Make Kendrys a bit more of a contact guy, and put him in RF, and you've got a whale of a nice little Civic there. (Dr. D drives Civics in real life.)
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Michael Saunders last year had the same 120'ish OPS, and they ended up about the same place but did it in every opposite way you could imagine:
It would be pleasant to see, for a change, a Coin Op Hitter who didn't bellow *$!%# at the top of his lungs twice a night as he walked back to the dugout. Hey, you grok me. I love Michael Saunders. Am just sayin'.
At Safeco specifically, it would be pleasant to see a right hand .300 hitter who gets on top of the ball. And I'd love to see if he reacted like this to thunder with the roof closed.
Would Dr. D, as a GM, bid 5/$75 for this player? If I needed him, and if there were some reason to depart from my Stars & Scrubs Prime Directive, sure. But those are two big fat hairy IF's.
If the M's can't do anything else, Melky would be very "pleasant" to watch as a #2 hitter. Dr. D isn't looking for pleasant, but that's okay. Explain to him what you do with the minor-league beehive and he's content.
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There's new shtick up at my second site, D-O-V. Oh by the way: comps for Melky, as far as .300 with 35 doubles, 15 homers and 0 garbage swings per year? Yadier Molina was the most-similar hitter that I scraped off the sides of the mayo jar.
Dozing off watching the Melk-a-thon,
Jeff
Because I don't have to give upmy top SP prospects to get him and I need those SP spects. If we can get Kemp for just Walker and Taylor...then I'd rather have Kemp. But the rumor is that Kemp costs a lot more than that. I also want Melky because we can afford to expand payroll a lot...why not do it with a low risk civic that gives you dependable production and is a great fit for Safeco.
I don't think Melky necessarily blocks the Farm. He's an adequate RF, but a better LF. So put him in LF, and have the hornets from Blash (or Souza) to AJax try for the RF job. It's the same number of roster spots, granted, but I see Melky covering the Black Hole that has been the LF position for the Ms until Tank O'Neill or the like is ready to wrest it from him. But then you're talking about Melky blocking the secondary prospects - the 1B/LF types - rather than the uber prospects with all five tools (Jabari/Austin/AJax/Gareth, I'm talking about one of you!).
If the Ms can get Melky into a 4-year contract with a 5th-year option, knowing if he's still producing he's a trade chip when the cubs are ready to be tigers, it makes the next 2-3 years much stronger. Ackley may or may not become a major contributor - I'm about ready to cut bait, though, and just move on with that Civic (or Pilot - Melky's pretty heavy duty, even if he isn't that 450hp 34mpg Volvo XC-90).
...into LF when Ackley got too expensive and was traded.
Even if in 2016 you did suddenly get D.J. and Kivlehan doing a Rice and Lynn 1975, it's not like you couldn't shed Melky at a tolerable loss. Trader Jack would have options.
:: cpoints ::
Melky is the superior player...you'd trade Ackley for whatever you could get (which in Z's case would be yet another awesome MOR starter no one ever heard of) and call it good.
With DH blocked, wouldn't you almost have to trade Melky in a couple of years anyway? He's not a good defender today.