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Discussion thread :- )
Taro has been arguing for Seth Smith since before Dr. D was arguing for Felix Hernandez. G-Money wasn't far behind, as we recall.
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Ron Shandler sez -- Baseball Forecaster for sale here; you can download the .pdf right away --
For those who just joined us, "Hard contact expectancy" is a super-refined metric that tells us how often he's able to hit the ball hard. "Power Index" is a metric that tells us how hard he's able to hit the ball often. :- )
These both popped back to about 120 last year, his career norms, after a slump year in 2013 ... that's what Ron's first line was talking about.
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Smith played 50% of San Diego's left field games and 25% of their right field games. The Padres were -6 runs in left and +14 runs in right. That's all Dewan has.
He snicked 2.6 WAR off the Fangraphs leaderboard last year, in a short season.
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He hit .270/.360/.450 against right hand pitching last year, with a 100 speed score and a wonderful 53:78 EYE.
Comparable players, once you compare Smith's platoon game to their overall games? Actually guys like Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte and Jose Altuve, without the wheels, of course.
For one year, he'll give the M's a kinda-sorta MELKY generic drug substitute in the 2 slot. OBP figures to be a good solid .350 in Safeco, hits the ball with authority, lacks the "specialness" of a Melky or Altuve, but will get it done in (ugh) Orc-like overachiever fashion.
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Brandon Maurer is one whale of a talent to give up, but you gotta give something to get something. You got 13 red socks and one blue sock, then one-red-for-one-blue is doable.
Cheers,
Dr D
Saunders-AAAreliever-Maurer for Happ-Ruggiano-Smith works. We no longer need to worry needlessly about "potential" failing to materialize in RF. We retain a certain degree of flexibility with our payroll, and we keep Taijuan Walker. Check-off-the-box, Mister. Offseason essentially complete and satisfactory.
remembering the Benuardo acquisition for a DH platoon, but in reality the things that stung so badly about those acquisitions were A) that they ossified the position with putrid production, and B) they cost two blue-chip prospects who were both very, very strong bets to become league average or better players at the time.
I do like this sequence, though, as DaddyO outlines it. If you were to trade Saunders for Smith, that would be sideways at best and a probable loss for the M's because Saunders wasn't utterly useless against lefties. But after that, you're talking about trading Maurer for Happ, which is a clear win for the M's, and then the Ruggiano for fungible, albeit talented, reliever piece still looks good on its own.
It's not a clear-cut masterstroke, but it *should* solidify the team at positions of need without surrendering anything of major long-term value. A platoon for COF, and a shot at a #2-3 SP is a whale of a third-tier combo. Nelson Cruz, as a #1 add, leaves a bit to be desired but he most certainly helps the team for at least a couple of years at a position, and with a skillset, that the organization doesn't seem ready to fill internally any time soon - not to a high standard, anyway.
These are good moves. I do, however, think the team needs to keep fighting for one more impact bat. Don't sell the farm for a Justin Upton-type, but if Tulo really does go on the block then I think the M's need to be FIRST in line.
Are there any studies on how efficient or how much a platoon is really worth vis-a-vis a single batter?
I ask this because I've never been a fan of platoons in slots above maybe 7th in the batting order.
Now, maybe it's harder to build a complete lineup in a slight offense depression and maybe it has to do with comfort.
Yet, with the era of 11-man bullpens long gone and AL benches seemingly being shortened to maybe 12~13 hitters, wouldn't a platoon be depreciated?
Is there a model to look at when a platoon 'breaks even' with the equivalent single player?
With all these models, wouldn't there be a way to calculate how much more a single player is worth over a platoon?
Nowadays, you switch the batter, and the other team's gonna have a lot easier time just moving on to another reliever and smash the platoon advantage.
Of course my vision sucks but hopefully that's irrelevant. He made us better at a reasonable cost and is worthy of commendation for it. Not that any of these moves couldn't prove to be a bust in time but at this point I like them. I especially like how he hung onto our prospect talent, that is becoming more and more valuable by the month. The roster now has more flexibility than at the end of this past season and we have more depth to hold down the DL impacts we will surely experience. I would like another rotation capable arm that we could stash in Tacoma. It looks like they will have to stick Erasmo in the swingman role in the pen if they want to avoid having him clear waivers, which he almost surely would not. Hopefully The Incredible Hultz will be capable of filling that role.
I have asked this same thing. In an era of 4 man benches, when one of those 4 spots is back-up catcher, what is the penalty of having to be platooned?
Ideally wouldn't you want a bench with both a solid left handed and right handed bat, plus a good pinch-runner, and a defense specialist for the infield and the outfield. 3 spots.
That doesn't even count the moderate aches and sprains and illnesses that cause players to miss days without needing a stint on the DL. To me, it's the reason why you can't afford a guy who isn't available to play everyday, nor can you afford to ossify your roster with one dimensional players.
Personally, I greatly dislike the platoon, I think it's probably a 2-3 WAR reduction over a comparable everyday player when you consider things like later inning bullpen adjustments and the bench ramifications.
But would love to know if anyone has really studied it.
- Ben.
My schedule is weird, but it's a conversation worth starting. Is it better to have a more flexible bench? The Ms used to want 4 Mclemores on the bench who could do a little bit of everything but in most years were never great at one thing. Players like Willie could play multiple positions (poorly) and hit slightly and pinch run.
Is that more or less valuable than someone who can destroy opposite handed pitching and counts that as basically his only skill? And how many people ever get the balance right?
I would posit that a team with AAA blue chippers is in better position to deal with injury and doesn't need as much stored bench flexibility (as long as they're willing to burn option years).
But mileage may vary. Hopefully I get some posting time in the next two days.
Methinks Ackley may be the one platooning with Ruggiano, rather than Smith...
Ackley in 2014 vs LHP: .212/.255/.298
Ackley in 2014 vs RHP: .259/.310/.442
Smith in 2014 vs LHP: .240/.424/.320
Smith in 2014 vs RHP: .270/ .359/.455
Obviously Ackely has more long-term upside but Smith has been a better hitter. Period.
If you're successfully "shortening the game" you can maximize your platoon advantage to jump out to a lead early, using the oppo-handed batter for those starter innings. As it turns out, both sides of our RF platoon were pretty good in 2014 against the same handed pitcher, and Ruggiano has demonstrated long term success at being at least average against the opposite hand. Plus, he can play CF and Smith can shift to left, so I think this makes us even more flexible (consider also that Ackley can man first base, and second base in a pinch). But most of all, we need to maximize our danger in the early innings. What was so frustrating for me (and Z) in the Wedge era was the insistence of playing below average regulars when a platoon would at least take us up to "average". Is Seth Smith better against left handers now, based on his decent 2014 performance? Well, batters can get smarter at making adjustments as they age. I was amazed at how well Ibanez hit lefties in 2013.
I like this chart. For what we were looking for, and what was available we did pretty good. Saved a lot of money that we will hopefully put to use later.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/a-brief-note-about-seth-smith/
If you figure a Rugi/Smith platoon at something like .800 OPS, where do you get the .800 OPS RF for the cost of two relievers?
That's very hard to do.
Mariner's flexibility in '15 is going to be dependent on keeping Miller/Taylor AND Bloomquist (or C. Rivero). Add your one BA catcher and a RH 1B bat.....Then you are pretty flexible.
You might not have a LH bat on the bench, however...at least against RH starters.
If you're trying to win in the first 6 IP, then you're going with a defensive OF in IP 7-9 anyway, which lessens the impact of getting your platoon hitter LOOGY'ed in the 7th and 8th... that being a good part of the problem with platoon arrangements, the high-leverage runs you give back in that late AB ...
Pretty sharp there Rickster :- )
IS that 800 OPS Platoon really a 800 OPS Platoon or is it actually .700 in equivalence because it's a suboptimal setup since you don't get the advantage every time.
As I think about it a little more, the platoon does give you some advantages (you can PH for someone else who also sucks against the pitcher and cross your fingers for the other guy), but you can also shoot yourself in the foot (you PH for Zunino with Smith, end up with Sucre in the lineup in the 8th inning and you end up with a clump of LHers for their LOOGY too).
I also think that the platoon advantage will fade in a short series as well, as the Orcs have displayed for more than 10 years.
Some debate whether signing Aoki straight-up would have been a simpler move than trading for a platoon, but I don't think he is the type of player Z was ever interested in. Trading for Smith is much, MUCH better than doing nothing.
You might be a little young to remember Benuardo ...
If you told me right now that Ruggiano/Smith would replicate their '14's, AB-for-AB, then of course I'd be giddy.
That trade had me real angry that year...
I prefer trading Maurer for Smith than doing nothing, for sure.
It'll take a bit longer to find out whether the M's should have traded DJ & Maurer for Upton/Heyward/been more aggressive with other FAs/something along those lines.