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For SURE the real GM's are all over that territory.  No way they fail to consider that point.
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To be worth a $15M offer in Fangraphs terms, you only have to project Happ to 2.0 or 2.5 WAR in 2016.  Their estimate is up to $7, $7.5 mill per WAR next winter, I think.
From my standpoint, 2 WAR is a league-average pitcher, which Happ *already exceeds* in Safeco Field.  He'd rate a QO already.  That's not to say that I personally would lay out $14M for a league-average pitcher even though the WAR math says to do so.
A solid/average veteran SP might not be worth much at all to the 2016 Mariners (with Hultzen etc.)  Or, maybe he'll need to replace Iwakuma if the shoulder goes.
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Happ has some chance (20% ?) to be a mini-ace in Safeco.  In that situation the QO is a no-brainer and here comes the draft pick that we spent on Cruz.