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All he has to do is pitch 180 innings and it's automatic, I'd think. Safeco was built for pitchers like him, and his peripherals are all trending the right way to suggest that 3+ WAR isn't out of the question.
And with his relative injury history, I think he takes a 3x$10mil per deal rather than riding a QO year-to-year at half again the annual value. I know I sure would if I was him; that much money doesn't come your way many times in life. Similar to what you said in the Kyle Seager article, it's that first (fill-in-the-blank amount of money) that matters most.
And really, if Happ does explode this next year and pushes his ERA to near 3.00, who do you take going forward: him or Kuma?
I like this deal more and more as I think about it. Obviously I still don't think it's even 'good' in isolation, but it's a heck of a draw at the #2 SP deck.