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the idea of a quantity > quality package for J. Upton. It makes sense. The names are even fungible if you're getting both Upton and Gattis back. Gattis' spray charts make me want to run screaming into the night when envisioning him hitting half his games in Safeco, though even I have to admit that his plus power is legitimate.
 
But eight extra base hits, TOTAL, to the opposite field in two years?  Gattis' WRC+ on balls in play to RF in his MLB career has been 73, with last year's 56 being a truly cringe-worthy result.  Compare that to his pull field WRC+ of 239 for his career and you've got a classic, dead pull hitter moving to what is likely still the worst park for a player of that profile to hit in.  I'm not saying he isn't a valuable piece, but him being a slightly better than average hitter in Safeco, in full-time duty and accounting for the league switch, is probably about the max of what I'd expect without a big step forward.  He's 28 years old, so it's not impossible for him to take that step, but I wouldn't be banking on it.
 
Compare this with Upton (who is fast becoming my #1 target of the offseason) whose spray charts show a hitter who looks to launch the hard stuff to RCF while reacting to -- and yanking the stuffing out of -- pitches on the inner half (sound like anyone we know and love?).  If you look at his charts, note just how little action he gives the LCF gap; also note how few infield flies he generates to the pull side (meaning he is almost never 'out in front' of the pitch, since the only way to sky a pitch to the pull-side on the infield is by getting pull-happy).  This, ladies and gentlemen, is what a right-handed Safeco killer looks like.  His career WRC+ to the balls in play to the opposite field is 116, with a 126 mark in 2014.
 
I'm not comparing Upton and Gattis as apples and apples, but their hitting profiles are wildly different and I think some of us are missing perspective on just what each one represents.  One is a one-tool hitter whose power just might allow him to transcend the park, and who still has some growth in his bat before he is declared Mark Trumbo 2.0, but he also carries a definite crash-and-burn-in-Safeco possibility (to my eye, anyway).  Worst case, he's a valuable rotational guy and killer platoon partner.  Best case, he's who...Richie Sexson?  I'd bet short on that one, but that's just me.
 
But the other guy is a lockdown, MOTO basher who truly does not care where he plays, or where the pitches are thrown.  Justin Upton, more than any other hitter I've looked at this year, seems to have been made for Safeco field.  Even Matt Kemp's straight-up-the-middle power game would suffer measurably from Safeco's LCF gap, but I don't see it happening with Upton.  He's also annually among the longest average HR distance in the majors, ranking 12th last year I believe while in the top ten the prior two years.
 
There's probably an argument somewhere for valuing Gattis and his extra club control years more than you value Upton and his one year, but if they're both on the table for anything remotely resembling a similar price, I take Upton and start sweet talking him about an extension ASAP.  If I whiff on the extension, I still get a ~1st round pick the following year for my troubles - and, oh yeah, I trot out one of the most fearsome 3-4-5 punches in the big leagues for a year.  That might count for something...not sure ;-)
 
If I'm giving up Walker I want both of them coming back, and I would work really, really hard for a negotiation window as part of the deal...but I'd probably do it without one, even though it would sting.  We won't likely get another chance at a prime years, right-handed, MOTO bat that fits the park and roster so well.  I don't want to cobble together a Yoenis Cespedes+Mike Morse offseason and then get in a foot race for Upton next year against the Yankees.  I'm fine with paying the man $20mil for five or six years, since this looks like the M's chance at a run and he's going to be worth it to us.