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Is really great. Matt I know the the idea of offense being non linear ties in with what you've been looking at lately but I'd really curious to hear your thoughts about his larger point...
Pretty much all sabremetrics (or at least the publicly available stuff) these days is based on the idea that baseball is made up of a series discrete events that we treat as independent of one another. But that's probably not true. Sequencing matters but we don't have the tools to really study and understand it. Because the database tools everybody uses look at individual events devoid of context, that's how we think about them. Even though there's probably some very important stuff buried in all those circumstances.
Arneson compares it Newtonian physics, it'll get you most of the way there and there's some important stuff in there but it doesn't capture the full reality of things.
The whole essay is fascinating and well worth everybody's time. Probably the best thing I've read about baseball in six months.
Some great thoughts about roster construction too. The idea that a lineup should be composed of different types of hitters makes a lot of intuitive sense to me.