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Deductive = taking a general principle, and slapping it onto some specific case.
We see this constantly, the Fangraphs editor being the most egregious violator:  "23-year-old hitters average 82 points of total OPS gain at their peaks.  Therefore Mike Zunino's correct projection is to gain 82 points of OPS."
From a scientific point of view, you would ask for a more fine-grain demographic .... can we ask what 23-year-old CATCHERS gained?  can we ask what they gained if they were the #3 overall?  Can we ask what they gained if all the people around them said they worked harder than Jesus Montero?  Can we ask what 23-year-old catchers gained, if they'd missed the minor leagues?  Can we ask what they gained, if the scouts singled them out as special?", etc.
From a chessplayer's standpoint, it is precisely the awareness of exceptions to general rules that makes the difference between tournament-class play and coffeehouse play.  I hate to see this oversimplification, and over-reliance on a single isolated idea.