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Talent just seems so unpredictable. Sitting in front of our laptop screens, we can read stuff about players and look at the numbers, and based on that information, come to some basic conclusions. But when a player like Ackley can dominate Triple-A and then not quite succeed in ML, where does that leave us?
Some things that I think we know are that power and the ability to make contact are strong predictors of ML hitting ability, sort of. Ackley makes better contact than almost anyone, but his contact-first approach to hitting hasn't worked yet at the ML level, at least not since pitchers adjusted to him. And that's the other thing, the ability to adjust. How do you predict that? Because that's what Kyle Seager has that Ackley seems to lack. As for Peterson, or Kivlehan (or Gabriel Guerrero or Tyler Marlette or Alex Jackson or Gareth Morgan, etc.), we just don't know yet if they'll be able to make that adjustment. So it's a judgement call. How well do you know your own player and what's going on in his head as he moves up through the minor leagues?
With regard to trading DJ Peterson, we know that the Mariners had a book on him long before draft day. So I guess they knew him pretty well then and they know him even better now. They know the power is there and they know that 1 year out of college ball he's able to hit for a high average at AA, which is pretty impressive, even in a limited number of games. And I would assume they know better than we do about the particulars of his ability to to make contact, how he approaches the task of hitting, how he adjusts during an at-bat - that sort of thing. So if they decide to trade him, they probably have the best information to make that call. They're informed.
But then what do they really know? Are they thinking DJ is an above average ML hitter that has a nice career, sort of like Kendrys Morales? Or do they think he has a chance to be a truly special hitter like Edgar or Paul Konerko? And what are the chances of that?
I think the "is he a special hitter?" question is the big one for me. If I think there's a good chance this is a player that can maximize his potential and hit .300 or better with 25-30 home runs for most years of his career AND play a position on the field, then I probably wouldn't trade him, at least not for Zobrist. I would look around for another deal. Special hitters are hard to find. We thought we would have one in Ackley, but it didn't turn out that way.