Add new comment

Seriously, lr - thanks for coming by the thread. This has been a great convo (even if I'm not getting enough work done this afternoon - new job next week, so I might as well post here while I can during the day, right?).
Slugging expectations: twenty dudes posted a .220+ ISO last year.  I don't know how many guys have the natural power you're talking about to do that consistently any more.  It may only be the Gallos and Bryants, and everyone else will have to be park-assisted by doing it in Cincy or Fenway.  I don't think Peterson is in that slugging weight-class, not in the Safe.
I think of DJ as about an 18% K guy (so he's running a little hot for the season), and he was taking his bases in June.  10% walks would be fine even if he ran 20% Ks with his approach (which was basically his June).  He also took his walks on the road (9% for the year, 8.5 for his career).  It's at home that his approach has suffered, and that was a High Desert problem.  I'm glad they got him outta there.
I believe after whatever his adjustment period is, DJ is gonna hit .280-.300 in the Safe (which would be higher elsewhere, obviously, thanks to Safeco's BABIP depression), take 50-55 walks, strike out 110-120 times, and net himself 65-70 extra-base hits.
Basically, I expect him to have Seager's year so far, minus a few walks and plus a few singles. I think Peterson is an .800-.850 OPS bat, but in the Safe that's still pretty plus.  I would absolutely take a RH Seager at first base and be pretty thrilled. Maybe the Mariners have made me lower my expectations too much. ;-) 
Maybe you're right and he's gonna crash into a Beltre's line with the Mariners of .265/.315/.445 (which is close to that Montero line you posted earlier).  Beltre for Texas: .315/.360/.540.  It's entirely possible to be THAT crushed by a ballpark, and perhaps DJ's power isn't plus-enough for him to make it work.
But man, when he hits em it looks like Zunino, who tags em out as arcing fly balls that are in NO danger of being held by the park.  I expect DJ to be more like a 130 wRC+ and not that 115-ish figure, but I won't argue that he could fall in at that .270/.330/.440 line, certainly to begin with. I don't think that's an especially flawed mid-range projection. I just think he's faster than Kendrys and makes better contact than both Morales and Saunders, which leaves it up to how much he can drive the ball. If DJ's power goes up in Smoak, I'll be very disappointed. But I'm willing to risk it - unless the absolute right hitter comes along to put us over the top NOW.