Add new comment

1

Everybody learns differently.  The reason you keep DJ in the minors for another year and a half is to hopefully avoid an extended learning period as he tries to learn TOO much in the pros.
Look, I used Moss and Lind as examples of the kind of impact I expect him to have.  If I'd used 23-25 year olds you have guys still in their "early learning curve" - those guys get discounted too.  Matt Adams is the same kind of hitter, if you want a younger example:
DJ, minors: .314/ .371/ .578/ .948, 7.9% walks, 19.7% Ks
Adams, Minors:  .316/ .362/ .560/ .922, 6.8% walks, 17.1% Ks
How's Matt doing in his expected 2 year adjustment phase at ages 24 and 25? .299/ .333/ .501/ .834, posting a 130 OPS+ over his first 700-ish PAs, even as his batting eye falls off the cliffs of insanity (9 walks against 61Ks so far this year).
Can Matt keep up his high-wire act at the plate with a 5.1% walk rate as a big-leaguer against a 22.8% K rate?  HIGHLY unlikely... but nothing says those values are permanent either as he matures.  And in the meantime he's the biggest bat in the Cardinals playoff push.
Of course, Eric Hosmer is that kind of hitter too. 24 years old now, plenty of big-league experience,  .275/ .328/ .417/ .745 career with a 7.5% walk rate.  He doesn't strike out as much, but he also doesn't have the kind of power that either DJ or Adams have shown. He also walked a lot more in the minors, and his 15% K rate isn't helping him be especially productive in the bigs so far. *shrugs* Prospects are malleable. 
It's all best-guessing.  I know you wouldn't want to dump him for some 7th inning LOOGY :-) but he's not automatically 5 years away from helping us, either.  Seager went from AA to plus major-league hitter in 1 year (AA to the pros in 2011, 108 OPS+ in 2012, followed by 117 and then 138 so far this year).
Is DJ likely to land as a 130 OPS+ hitter out of the gate?  No.  Could he?  Adams did. The Mariners are abysmal at developing players once they're in their big-league careers, but it's possible for DJ to break that streak. I don't know yet how good DJ can be, which is why it's hard to get a good handle on his evaluation.  I MUCH prefer hitters with good batting eyes, but Deej has average and power, and always has. He's a bit of a conundrum, so I don't mind at all the lower evaluations of him. I think it's absolutely possible that he low-ends and disappoints us all.
But trading him is betting on that. I would hate to let our .200 ISO prospect (the first one that can actually HIT in what, 2 decades?) get away because we figured, "well, he can't keep this up..."
I would trade him for another .200 ISO kind of hitter who can help us for the next few years, basically moving up the timetable on Peterson. Short of that, I'm very reluctant, that's all.  Righty power is getting more scarce by the season. If you find some - and have a park that scares off righty FA like we had the heads of past right-handers stuck on pig poles all around the stadium - it's probably best to keep it, unless you're pretty sure the dude CAN'T translate to the big-leagues.  I would have traded Halman and Liddi early.  And Tui. And Clement.  DJ doesn't have those kinds of swings, so him I'd keep.
But in two years this is gonna be a really interesting thread to re-visit.  MAN, do I hope he's crushing it for us in his first full season - or failing somewhere else while we polish our World Series ring.
~G

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.