In the past, Zduriencik has acted with great decisiveness when drafting his top players. "Give me THAT one." And in large part he's been very good at that. His returns in the first three or four rounds since he got here are as good as ANYone's.
But when it comes to picking which dude is getting and keeping the major league positioning, he's been far less charge-minded, dickering around at the bottom of the hill with several options rather than picking one and shooting the rest off for reinforcements. Almonte or Jones, Miller or Franklin... not a lot of decisiveness, and it's had to have hurt the trade value on those dudes. Replacements for Ackley and Smoak haven't truly been sought, because "one of these days their earn their prospect status." Well, that hasn't happened, and probably won't happen here. Romero was promoted for no apparent reason, then benched, then shipped back off after having his prospect status savaged.
Peterson is still playing 3B. Kivlehan is still mostly at first base after spending a bunch of this season and last at the hot corner trying to keep a job he has no prayer of doing at the big-league level.
If Peterson is a 1B, then move him there and prepare him. If you're keeping him at 3rd in the hopes of upping his trade value at the lower-producing offensive position, then TRADE HIM WHILE HE'S PLAYING IT. Otherwise you're making him work on his glove instead of his hitting, and keeping him from getting good reps at first.
We have a decent amount of name recognition in the system. Paxton, Walker, Franklin, Sanchez, Wilson, Jackson, Gohara... all those guys are first or second round picks (or talents), with Sanchez and Gohara as our international bonus babies. But if you're gonna trade your name-rec guys, then you need them not to have bumped up against a ceiling. If the Padres were gonna trade Hunter Renfroe, now would be the time. Blocking him off in AAA next year and saying he's not good enough to displace what you have is not a way to build prospect value.
Same with Joc Pederson. You trade that guy this offseason if he's not gonna crack your team. All he has to do is stall in his approach or get injured for his value to plummet.
Right now, I agree with you: DJ has the most "glam" of any of our available hitters (Jackson and Morgan can't be traded til after next year's draft). If we're keeping Walker and Paxton off the list, then DJ is THE name you can get out of us. He might not turn into the best player, but he's the most famous and he's doing pretty well. Kivle-who and Mart-huh? are not well-known. The only other real name hitter we have who can be traded is Austin Wilson, but his value isn't quite there yet. Give that a year. It's why a Walker or Paxton would HAVE to go in any major deal. Franklin is a second or third piece, and DJ is probably another.
But since the Ms don't believe in blockbuster trades that bring us the best player, I'm not too worried about that. If we're gonna trade DJ it needs to happen in the next 18 months... but I expect him to stay. The Ms can get Zobrist and Willingham/Byrd/whoever for less than the price of a DJ.
If I'm the Ms, fungibility also plays into it. Franklin, Marte and Taylor all play blocked positions currently and are in AA and AAA. If we love Taylor then we can trade Miller, but I don't expect us to do that. Right now the ONLY first basemen we have in system are Choi, DJ and Kivlehan, and Choi is a lefty (while we need a couple righties). If we're keeping DJ, I expect Kivlehan to go.
If Tampa's desires win out and we part with The Name to make a deal happen... then we'll hope for the best from Kivlehan and the remaining hitters. And for Zobrist/whoever to be the kickstart to the offense that can plate enough runs to get us to the playoffs.
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Because in the end, this year counts too - and that's a part of making decisive decisions. Beane traded away CarGo for Holliday, then flipped Holliday for Brett Wallace (aka the worst-case comp for DJ Peterson who faceplanted Smoak-style for Houston), Shane Peterson (who?) and Clayton Mortensen (pen arm, bounced to CO and BOS after his brief time in Oak-Town). Wallace was traded for Michael Taylor, who also faceplanted.
Billy got NOTHING but 3 months of decent-but-not-stellar service out of Holliday, and lost CarGo in the process. Has it hurt the As? It did... but not significantly. Most players are replaceable, and Beane isn't scared about finding ways to replace them. We horde our shiny toys until they're scuffed and broken, while he's flipping bubble gum to get a paper clip and then a box of matchsticks - eventually turning em into a new car. Or at least that's the theory.
DJ might be a future All-Star. He might be the next Brett Wallace / Justin Smoak / name a failed Mariners prospect. If he's Will Clark, you'd best NOT trade him. If he's Billy Butler, I prefer you don't. If he's Brett Wallace, you'd better be hitting your Dr. Evil drop-him-into-lava button immediately.
But in terms of trade? We restock the system every year. The ONE thing Jack is good at is picking well-liked prospects who do well in the minors. If that's his skill, and we wind up over-paying to get actual ML production the form of Zobrist and whomever... it's a recoverable loss. ;-) Be decisive.
~G
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