Young presently has an xFIP of 5.37 - his career xFIP is 4.81. Means he has, thus far, been about half a run worse than average for his career (in which he posted a 3.72 actual ERA). So, your baseline under equivalent conditions would be a 4.30 ERA. But Safeco Field is worse for hitters than Petco Park. By like 4%. And Young has upside still - his xFIP by month has gone 5.98, 5.44, 4.69 - seems to be rediscovering his career form. When he was at his peak, his xFIP was 4.44.
With that as my guide, I think I would project Young to throw the next two seasons with an ERA of around or just below 4 in Safeco. What is that worth to a team that has two injury-prone young pitchers, Felix Hernandez, injury prone Iwakuma getting old, a #3 starter with upside (Elias) and then crickets after that for at least three years?
I would be willig to give Young a 2 year 16 million dollar contract. Think he'd take that?
Add new comment
1