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I'm in the Spec camp on Paxton. That said, I'm a heck of a lot happier with James in the #5 SP slot that I was with Jeremy Bonderman.
I think he will have those 6-7 disastrous starts. And 6-7 dominant starts. And another 12-14 Bedard "five and dive" specials. That's a wonderful guy to have at the back of the rotation as long as he's cheap. Maybe he takes a step or two forward. Maybe he doesn't. Gotta make the investment (aka starts) to find out.