1
I see that season as being like the 10th-50th percentile outcomes for K-Pax. Given 10 possible outcomes for Paxton, from worst to first, I see the MtGrizzly prediction as being outcomes 2, 3, 4, and 5.
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And if so, how would that compare to Gio Gonzalez' first 25 starts at a 6.50 ERA, or Mark Mulder's rookie season at 5.44?
Mulder won 21 games in year two, finishing #2 in the Cy; what he had in common with K-Pax is the ground ball rate.