And when I say skeptic, I mean I think he's much more likely to have a Bedard career than a Kershaw career. That's still something of value, of course.
1) Paxton is 25. It's not not like we don't have a pretty good idea of what he is.
2) He gives up lots of baserunners, consistently and not just sometimes. Kentucky: 1.42 WHIP. Clinton: 1.34. Jackson 1.31. Tacoma 1.48.
3) To make up for the walks and hits, he has to be extremely difficult to hit hard. Can he sustain a low HR% and low ISO-against so as to survive his high WHIP? Possbily. And I expect that often he will. But his Tacoma record (.122 ISO-against in 28 starts; PCL average .144) is not a great indicator.
4) Is it possible that his WHIP in the majors will be a lot lower than it was in college and the minors? Yes. This is Doc's argument, I think. That his BB% will drop a bunch against MLB hitters. I don't rule that out, but I don't think we can tell anything from his first 24.0 IP. His WHIP dropped compared to Tacoma because of a .203 BABIP, not because of a dramatic drop in walk rate.
5) There aren't a lot of guys who consistently have success while averaging 4+ pitches per plate appearance. Obviously, that has been a huge problem for Bedard, who only once averaged more than 6.0 IP per start. Scherzer and Darvish succeeded at 4+ P/PA in 2013, but they were striking out around 30% of hitters. If Pax will see his K% jump up that high, then sure. But it still looks like a problem to me.
I'm not advocating trading him. He is very good, but he is not showing the hallmarks of a mega-star prospect to me. I expect mixed results, but that's just my view.
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