Add new comment

Doc/Matt: A "prospect" (pitcher) is only a prospect at AA...once he masters that level, he's ready.
Looking at your above list, here are the total number of innings they threw at AAA on their way up.
Strasburg 33
Felix 88
Verlander 0
Lincecum 31
Ogando 15
Cain 145
Liriano 91
Webb 25
Oswalt 31
Brett Anderson 13
Feliz 77
Pineda 62
Cain really never dominated AA as he had a 1.3 WHIP and 40 BB's/72 K's at that level.
The other guys were basically MLB pitchers as soon as they were done with AA. AAA was just a brief respite to throw against guys who had actually been in the majors. It wasn't a real growth stop. The average of those guys was 51 AAA innings.
Taijuan has 57 AAA innings/Paxton 145.
There is pretty good indication that they aren't "prospects" any more. They belong.
moe
Edit: Bumgarner 82, Hellickson 57, Price 52, Billingsly 70, Kershaw 0, Hughes 57, Buchholz 181, Bailey 317.
Buchholz was up in '08 after 82 AAA innings in '07-'08. He was sent back down in '09 for 99 more after a poor MLB start.
Bailey bounced up and down in '07-'09. But you can argue he's been the least dominant (at least fora season or two) of all the guys on that list. He did dominate at AA, though. He breaks the mold of the guys mentioned.
So, if you've recently been a BA Top-10 Prospect AND you're a pitcher who Dominated AA.....there's a pretty good shot your ready at that point. I've listed 20 guys you did. 2 of the 20, Buchholz and Bailey took a bit of time to be TOR (1-3) guys. Hughes basically was, as soon as he got the shot. That's 3 of the 20 (not all starters, understood).
I like the odds. They're well in our guy's favor. When you stack one on top of the other, there looks to be almost no chance that one of them is not a TOR guy right not (and that's without the eyeball test we've all had). That's nearly a lock. If you figure that they each have an 80% shot, you're looking at a 96% chance that one is TOR right now, and a 64% chance that both are (if I've done my math correctly).
And actually it goes up from there, because that doesn't include the fact that they have both already dominated in starts at the MLB level. Paxton was 4/4 in quality starts and three of those were terrific. Walker had one start where he allowed 6 baserunners in 5 innings, but 4 ER's. Combined they had 39 innings with 27 hits 10 ER's 11 walks and 33 K's. Their WHIP was less than 1.00, in case you missed it.
We don't have two prospects. We have two TOR guys chomping at the bit.
Secretariat was was no longer a prospect after Oct. 28, '73. He won by 6.5 lengths in that race, his first.
We've got a couple of that kind of young "stud hoss."
moe