He'll have to hit .265-.270, to get there Spec. He's a career .270 guy....but only .241 outside of the launching pad. He did walk 106 pts last year, a career high. That was driven by a 129 pt walk rate on the road. Mostly he just churns our 95 pt walk rates. That's nice! OK, you could argue that his his eye has taken a leap, it is possible, but I think we're hoping he can sustain a .260-.265 Avg.
He's hit .236, .211, .286, .262, .214 on the road, over his five full seasons. For fun, if we throw out the worst of those, would we be pleased if, in 4 seasons in Seattle, he hit .236, .286, .262, .214? You would certainly get a bargain if he hit .280+ for us in any season. That's what the Fowler bet might just be about. Get him for 4 seasons: One will be not worth it at all but one will be way better than what you're paying him.
Would you be pleased? I would. A lot! But to get there we've cherry picked a bit, haven't we.
He's not an easy out, he can run (although his 67% SB rate isn't great), he can field, he hits from both sides of the plate.....he has value. Oh, he's cheap.
If you add a power COF guy, then I'm not sure you don't just move Saunders to CF again.....but Saunders might well go as part of some swap and Fowler can surely help a team. It isn't impossible that he could be ours. I wouldn't throw a party, but I wouldn't kick either. Right now he's good for two years, $7.35M next year and one final arb in '15. If I'm giving up something pretty to get him, then 2 years isn't enough. 3, with a team option for the 4th, would be just right. 3/$25M...would he sign? And if so, is your $ better spent elsewhere? Are you $8M a year better off than with Almonte? He's a CF, but he's certainly not a great CF......so you're getting no glove premium.
He isn't a no brainer acquire, for sure, but if he hits .260-.280, he's a very nice player.
If you have him for 4 years, he'll do it at least once.
moe
Add new comment
1