... at least not in the sense that Fangraphs usually means it. You can show your work that Erasmo's ERA is misleading. You can't show your work that Kendrys Morales is or isn't the right signing for 2014. It was the Fangraphs* guys who made the assertion that --- > $/WAR, and $/WAR ONLY, wins pennants.
THAT is the thing to be proven. Show your work.
;- )
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Bill James is glad to tackle micro questions about baseball: Does a good first 5 starts mean that a pitcher has above-average chances? Is it a bad thing for hitters to strike out? Is it good to shift the defense?
As to macro questions -- predicting which team will win the pennant, he studiously avoids it. A famous quote: "We do not have near-perfect measurements of baseball players. It is foolish to assume that we do."
Another: "Theo makes 10 or 12 big decisions a year, and if they work out, he has a good year." Another: "If I'm ever given the chance to be a GM, I'll do the best I can."
I don't think I've ever seen Bill, since about 1997, make a forward prediction on a player that wasn't very hesitant.
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Statistics are BACKWARDS-looking. Pennants are won in the future. The idea that you could use algebra to "solve" human baseball players, as you would a chess position, is obviously .... ::shakes head::
Cameron showed his work on Nick Swisher, 7 years $105M, as the best possible deal of last winter. How's that looking for the 2018-19 seasons?
The assumption that you CAN 'show the work' on a Pat Gillick championship team is the problem here.
That's all probably harsher than I mean it; Thirteen's work, and style, we all thoroughly enjoy. The "show your work" posse, present company notwithstanding, can get my dander up pretty quick. :- )
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