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I think you got it right, Doc. The reason the 2nd month back is probably "mostly" related to muscle fatique (and repair).
I've been the one griping incessently about how age slows down the amount of healing the body can do in a 24 hour period ... and how with age, you start losing ground and accumulating damage.
Well, post-injury (ANY injury), there are a couple of things that are typically going to be true.
1) You will NOT have been going through a normal active DAILY routine of full-out professional level effort.
2) The difference between "pain" and "fatigue" has a LOT of gray area.
3) Having been out of competition for X amount of time, "returning" creates a psychological state different from "continuing to play".
Even given that rehab assignments are "supposed" to return you to 100% ... I suspect in the vast majority of cases, there is still residual damage to be repaired, (but is not pain-inducing).
I would bet that part of the reason for the 2nd month swoon is that once back playing every day at 100% effort, players start to accumulate extra damage to the muscles, which is not being repaired as quickly as it is accumulated. The nightly repair facilities of the individual are simply overloaded.
But, I suspect part of this is psychological -- that "returning" infuses a player with additional adrenaline and an enhanced level of concentration and competitiveness that is simply impossible to maintain over long periods. I think MLB players *ALL* have to "relax" into their normal production levels.
Think of it like the Griffey return (or the Raul return this season). In that ONE year, there is a psychological mix that cannot be duplicated or facilitated the next year. When you arrive "back home" - and you know it might be your final season, there is going to be a very different mental state than the one you're going to be in if you stick around for another season. While the "this could be the last year" feeling may be the same, it can only mix with the "I'm back home" feeling when you just returned.
I think that first month back, players have two items helping production - one is that they BEGIN the first month at the peak "rested and rehab" level. Physically, they don't get back on the field (mostly), until they and the doctors "feel" that everything is 100% ... so, it's probably pretty close. The accumulated muscle damage that follows takes some time to build up enough to increase the downward production pull. The second is that they have a heightened mental state helping feed superior production during that first month, (which also likely exacerbates the mental let-down, when they perform under their normal levels during that first month).
The player is forced to overcome BOTH the phsycial issues - (and I suspect MANY of these guys, who are slumping and then slumping deeper - start getting additional off days in that second month - which actually allow the physical stuff to REALLY make it back to 100%) -- as well as the mental issues of underperforming (despite high enthusiasm initally) - which gets worse in month two when the slumping gets worse, because the enthusiasm wanes AND the muscles deteriorate.
My own view of baseball history and understanding of accumulated muscle damage makes me believe that "rest days" are EXTREMELY undervalued in baseball as a whole, and definitely not appreciated by fans at all.
I suspect that even the young guys (Seager is exhibit #1), probably benefit FAR more from *regular* two day respites than anyone suspects. But, if it doesn't just happen to show up in the SINGLE game after two days off, it gets dismissed. My belief is that the most successful managers in baseball history tended to have rosters of high performing star players ... who "somehow" still managed to accumlate 7-10 games off spread throughout the season. And I think the benefits may be as much related to mental rest as physical.
I also think the natural pro athlete response to lowered production is actually to "press". If you come back and because your shoulder isn't "really" 100%, your long flies are dying at the warning track, what is the natural response? It's to try and "muscle up", (likely causing MORE damage to the muscles that aren't 100% as well as screwing up your natural swing timing).
If there is a simple way to summarize my belief it is that you cannot "think" your way out of a slump - you have to "feel" your way out of a slump, and I think mostly that means "surrendering" to the slump and NOT trying harder.