I agree with Moe on this one. Players with a history of looking okay to good defensively (Chavez, Saunders, Guitierrez) have all looked terrible statistically this year. Sure it is possible that they have been terrible, but I think the data also indicates that the M's pitchers are getting hammered on flyballs.
To make my point, I would like to split the statistics for the M's pitchers between starters and relievers. First the starters, with last being best, that is lowest. M's starters are 14th in line drive rate and 4th in HR/FB rate. So the starters give up a lot of hard hit flyballs (as judged by HR/FB rate), but not a lot of line drives. Now the relievers. M's relievers are 3rd in line drive rate and 3rd in HR/FB rate. So the M's relievers strike out a lot of batters, but when the opponent makes contact they are really squaring up the ball.
But what about the BABIP numbers, the numbers that show the M's defense to suck? Well the starters are 11th in the AL, while the relievers are 2nd in the AL. So the fielders are well above average for the starting pitchers, and terrible for the relief pitchers.
What else do we know. Over the 4 years preceeding this season, Raul has been a -7.3 UZR/150 games in the OF, Michael Morse has been -17.2 UZR/150 games, Michael Saunders has been 0.5 UZR/150 games, and Endy Chavez has been 14.2 UZR/150 games. This year? Ibanez -21.3 UZR/150 games, Morse -25.3 UZR/150, Saunders -11.1 UZR/150, Chavez -17.6 UZR/150. [Please note that for Saunders and Chavez averaging all outfield positions together is problematic, but I don't see a better approach. Generally, Chavez has graded as above average in CF and outstanding in the corners, while Saunders is good in the corners and a little below average in CF. Interestingly, for players that do play multiple positions, the difference in the CF UZR/150 and the corner UZR/150 often approaches the positional adjustment of ~10 runs per season. Michael Saunders conforms to this observation.]
So Raul and Michael Morse have always been bad, but they are significantly worse this year. Michael Saunders has gone from league average give or take depending on whether he is in CF or a corner, to terrible in CF and Endy Chavez has gone from average to plus in CF to terrible.
Taken in total, I think the outfield defense is poor, but the pitchers are giving up an inordinate number of hard hit fly balls that make it look worse than it is.
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