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Sutton had 3 of them: Age 27, age 28 and age 35. (BTW, three times in his career he gave up only 0.3 HR/9!)
And there in lies the bet. For $75M, you need Lee to have one of those HoF years during his three years here. $75M just to challenge for a WC spot isn't enough. You need a title, Divisional or otherwise. You can challenge for the WC for a lot less. To win a flag, you need Felix and Iwakuma to continue being Felix and Iwakuma. You can't add Lee and lose one of them, because that just gets you to right where we are today, basically.
And then there's the opportunity cost of the lost Walker/Paxton/Hultzen years. And the lost other FA's that we don't sign.
If Paxton is the guy I give up, I might be in. Not one of the other two, I think. Paxton/Romero/Capps? I might sneak into that trade. But I'm going to hate paying $75M for 90% of this Lee. I've got to get that one great year out of him. One Cy type year and a good one. In conjunction with more of the same Felix and Iwakuma.
I'll give him a 100 ERA+ year in those three.
Is he Moyer-Methuselah? Yes? Then by all means. Is he mortal? Then I don't know.
His HR/BB and K rates remain sharp, agreed.
But Walker + Miller/Franklin for somebody named Upton seemed a decent bet to some (not you...or I, Doc).
Proceed with caution: That's my motto here. If you get Lee, you will not get something else that glitters. But then you might not be able to get something as glittery, anyway. Oh, and don't swap out Walker. A deal breaker, that.
Getting to 85 wins with Lee isn't enough. There are a lot of ways to get there, w/o a #75M tag attached. Can he be critical in getting us to 95?
Doc, Moe the Greek says it's a "Pick 'em" as to whether he has another HoF year in the next three. Maybe 6 to 4. BTW, that has to translate to wins, too....not just K/BB.
Twist my arm some more.
moe