Add new comment

Y'know ... I think I get where BJ is coming from when he says "I'm not in the business ..." I take that to mean that his JOB is not to speculate, but to look for evidence to support theories. And if your foundation principle is built upon the non-existence of evidence, ("intangibles" by their very definition, are REQUIRED to have no evidence), then I do get that it's rather pointless for the analyst to respond.
That said ... my warning bells start going off when I hear phrases like "I knew on THIS DAY that X ... " The problem here is that as soon as one becomes certain of something (anything), then the ability to look at data through any prism but the one of that belief becomes increasingly difficult.
For me ... if you believe that Zunino's injury would deflate the TEAM (as much as it did you), what actual statistical information would you expect to follow?
I would expect the OFFENSE to swoon. If the premise is 'giving up", then "going through the motions" is the cliché that seems to most readily go along with that.
Of course, if the inciting incident is player loss, you have to adjust for the actual delta between the offensive person lost and his replacement. Losing Miguel Cabrera is going to reduce your offense (regardless of replacement), more than losing Brendan Ryan. The key point here is you have to separate the actual "tangible" differences from the "intangible" ones.
In this particular case ... the offense is hitting BETTER in August (.795) than they did in July (.792). So, there is no numerical evidence on the offensive side that supports "giving up".
No. If one actually looks that stats in the current 4-9 stretch, the problem lies completely on the pitching/defense side.
The August SP line is: 2-5 (6.57) - .291/.348/.512 (.861) - a complete disaster
The August RP line is: 1-1 (.5.10) - .289/.362/.388 (.751) - not great, but way better than June and only a tad worse than July (.730)
Last 14 day totals for pitching shows an overall .808 OPS allowed.
The offense shows .756 over last 14 days, (just a hair over the .730 over that last 28.
Statistically, the offense has actually stepped FORWARD since losing Zunino.
So, you lose a position player and the pitching staff swoons? That makes no sense at all. The only position player that has obvious direct impact on pitching performance would be the catcher, and Zunino plays .... oh, wait. Gee, I wonder how Quintero's been behind the plate.
Quntero - 8 games: 2-6; 5.59 ERA - .781 OPS against.)
But Blanco is solid -; (17 games - 4.94 - .781 OPS against) ... 2-4 since Zunino left ... 11-17 overall in games started ... meaning 9-13 before
The evidence leans MUCH heavier toward the change in catcher (and catcher rotation) has been very detrimental.
Additionally, the Seattle defense continues to get worse. Mind you, I was pointing out the decline of the Seattle defense EVEN WHEN THEY WERE WINNING, which was generally hand waved away as irrelevant. The DER is down to .685.
Now, the DER "could" be viewed as a going-thru-the-motions impact. Except, the sudden spike of errors actually (IMHO), suggests exactly the OPPOSITE psychological conclusion. In my experience, players tend to make more errors when they are PRESSING, rather than when they have "given up".
======
So, here's a challenge. In the NEXT week ... ask yourself the question after every strike out with RISP ... after every error ... after every base-running blunder ... "Are they pressing?" Because, my belief is that if you go into a game with that question, what you will see is almost nothing but evidence of a team pressing. That, of course, won't mean they ARE pressing, (any more than it will mean they have given up).
=====
What is actually a little surprising is just how bad the starters have been in the aggregate over this losing skein. It has actually been the starters more than the relievers that have crashed. Felix had one of his (rare) bad outings. Was that bad Felix day due to HIM giving up? What about Iwakuma? Did Morse give up on the HR ball he failed to save last night? Not like that's the first play Morse has looked like a bad fielder on.
But, here's a bigger question. What if the Ms go something like 12-8 over their next 20 games. What would a stretch like that says about this current 4-10 spell since Zunino left?
The problem in drawing conclusions at the "team" level when it is your rotation that is showing the biggest change is that pitchers have random good and bad spells.
Everyone understood from day one that this club had a great 1/2 punch followed by a lot of weakness. The problem with that setup is that during any spell where the BOR happens to bring their A game (and your aces pitch normally)... you suddenly have a winning streak. But ... the flip side of that is any spell where your aces happen to struggle, (and your weak BOR pitch "normally"), you suddenly have a losing streak.
How much is random and how much is psychologically induced? That's the real problem. Even if you believe in psychological impacts on the game, and accept the reality of things like chemistry or collective streaking and slumping which may be psychologically induced (and communicable) ... even if ALL that is true ... that doesn't mean randomness ceases to exist. Anyone who has ever played strat-o-matic or OOP understand that random statistical fluctuation will produce streaks and slumps even with 100% of psychological impact removed as a variable.
So, then the challenge for the analyst is to attempt to discern the random from the induced.
Hey. I believe in psychological impact on the team in a number of ways. But, even though I predicted BOTH that Griffey might have a major positive impact the year of his return AND that said impact could not possibly bleed into a second season ... I accept that just because what happened supported my position does not guarantee that I was right about the CAUSE. The question here is can I apply that logic forward? Could I, (for example), suggest the same reality for another returning hero ... like Ibanez?
Is it possible the team was deflated after the Zunino loss? Maybe. But, the stats say the offense has been better and the pitching collapsed. That data tends to run more toward ... the catcher you picked up is NOT meshing with your pitching staff. That would be a tangible difference that you may be able to work out the kinks with ... or revisit your catcher situation.